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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1052 Am Ast Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to east 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 1052 Am Ast Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The combination of a northeasterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a subtropical high pressure north of the area, will promote hazardous marine conditions through at least Tuesday. An area of low-pressure developing across the central atlantic and the surface high pressure will tighten the local pressure gradient promoting fresh to strong trade winds and hazardous seas across the regional waters from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

FXCA62 TJSJ 110846 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 446 AM AST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
The remnants of an old frontal boundary will continue to bring fragmented clouds and showers over the islands today. A strong surface high over the central Atlantic will promote breezy conditions during the next few days. Then, another surface high building over the western Atlantic will further tighten the pressure gradient over the area and strong east to northeast trades will prevail through the workweek. A distant surface low pressure over the central Atlantic is expected to develop by midweek and swells associated to the low in combination with the locally wind-driven seas will cause rough surf conditions with life-threatening rip currents through the end of the week.



SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday...

The brisk easterly winds continued to bring patches of remnant moisture from an old frontal boundary along with embedded quick passing showers across the coastal waters and portions of the islands during the overnight and early morning hours. Periods of light to moderate showers with brief gusty winds were experienced over portions of northeastern and eastern Puerto Rico as well as over the coastal waters in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands from time to time. Rainfall accumulations so far were between 0.25 to 0.50 inches with the heaviest rains. Some of the earlier heavier rains caused minor ponding of water on roads and hazardous driving condition in isolated areas as they passed by. Low temperatures ranged from the mid to upper 70s along coastal areas and in the mid to upper 60s in higher elevations and valleys. Winds became calm to light and variable overnight.

For the rest of the day, variable skies is expected to prevail during the early part of the morning, followed by a mix of sunshine and clouds during the rest of the day. Breezy conditions will persist, as the broad surface high pressure will remain anchored and be reinforced across the central Atlantic throughout the period.
Consequently this will lead to the tightening of the local pressure gradient resulting in breezy to windy conditions across the region.
This expected moderate to locally strong easterly wind flow will bring occasional patches of shallow moisture across the islands and coastal waters at least through tonight into Tuesday morning. In the meantime a mid to upper ridge will continue to build and settle in across the region during the rest of the period. Precipitable water values will range between 1.45 to 1.7 inches through early Tuesday, mainly due to shallow low level remnant moisture advection, thereafter, a gradual erosion of moisture will favor precipitable water values around an inch or slightly less by Wednesday.
The dry and stable condition aloft due to the mid to upper level ridging will aid in inhibiting significant convective development during the daytime but the intervals of passing showers will persist into early Tuesday morning.

Recent model guidance and the overall weather pattern suggests a gradual erosion of low level moisture transport, with the local winds forecast to become more northeasterly and increase, as the aforementioned high pressure ridge builds across the region resulting in a gradual improvement and more seasonal weather pattern with pleasant weather and cool seasonal temperatures by Tuesday and through Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions, are however forecast to continue through the period due to the interaction of the building high pressure ridge north of the region and an elongated area of low pressure forecast to develop across the tropical Atlantic well northeast of the region.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...

Similar conditions will continue on Thursday, and at least as of today, it seems that it will be the driest day of the long term period. Then on Friday into the weekend, a weak upper level trough will press against the mid-to upper-level ridge and pooling of moisture is expected across the northeastern Caribbean, with trade wind perturbations reaching the local area at times from the east. Then on Sunday and Monday, winds are forecast to gradually turn more east to southeast as a broad surface low pressure moves into the western Atlantic. This will continue to promote pooling of moisture across the local area with precipitable water content ranging between 1.75-2.00 inches from Friday onwards. Therefore, expect a wetter pattern through the long term period, with possible isolated thunderstorms on Friday as 500 mb temps drop to around minus 6 degrees Celsius in response to the upper level trough moving over the region.



AVIATION
VFR conds at all TAF sites. However, Brief MVFR conditions psbl due to low cig/ wdly SCT SHRA ovr regional waters and en route btw the local islands
SCT ocnl Bkn lyrs nr FL025
FL050. VCSH at TJSJ/TISX/TIST til 11/12Z. Mtn top obscr psbl ovr E interior of PR due low cig/-SHRA. Low leve wind fm E-NE 15-25 kts BLO FL180...then backing while incr w/ht ABV. SFC wnd light and variable to calm bcmg fm E 15 to 20 knots and gusty winds to 25-30 knots psbl aft 11/14Z.



MARINE
Hazardous seas due to a combination of wind-driven waves and northerly swells will continue for the next several days across most local waters. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories are in effect through at least Friday afternoon, and will likely be extended later this week. Easterly winds between 15 and 25 knots will prevail through the workweek. Please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) for more information.



SURF ZONE
A High Rip Current Risk (CFWSJU) is in effect for all beaches from northwestern to eastern Puerto Rico, including the beaches in southeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and all the U.S.
Virgin Islands. For more information and details please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU).

Life-threatening rip currents will prevail through the upcoming weekend across most of the east and north facing beaches of the islands.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ003-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM GMT Friday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741.

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Mayaguez
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Mon -- 12:15 AM AST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM AST     1.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM AST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:23 PM AST     0.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Puerto Real
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Mon -- 12:10 AM AST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 AM AST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM AST     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:23 PM AST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:20 PM AST     0.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Real, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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