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PHZ124 Big Island Southeast Waters- 958 Pm Hst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through early Tuesday morning...
Rest of tonight..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northeast swell 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 7 feet. Northeast swell 4 feet. Scattered showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 7 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered showers in the evening. Isolated showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 7 to 9 feet. North swell 7 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 8 to 9 feet. North swell 8 feet. Isolated showers.

PHZ100 958 Pm Hst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge will hold nearly 300 nm north of kauai into Monday. As a weak front reaches kauai late Tuesday or early Wednesday, robust surface high pressure to the northwest will drive increasing northeasterly trade winds. The high will move closer to the state on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing fresh to near gale northeasterly trade winds and large rough seas. Winds are expected to ease slightly by Friday.

FXHW60 PHFO 110632 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 832 PM HST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Ridging north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds through Monday. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas, particularly over the eastern end of the state. Stronger northeast trade winds are expected to begin building across the islands by Tuesday afternoon and then persist through at least Thursday night. Shower chances will also increase across the islands from west to east Tuesday though Thursday morning before drier air returns statewide by Thursday afternoon. A return to more typical trade wind weather is expected from Friday through the weekend.



DISCUSSION
No changes to the forecast this evening, and not anticipating any significant deviations from the current forecast philosophy overnight. High pressure remains far northeast of the islands with a ridge extending from the high to the northern boundary of the offshore waters. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds have spread across the region as a result. CIMSS MIMIC layer precipitable water (PW) continues to show moisture over the eastern end of the state, however clouds and showers have dissipated some over the last few hours over the Big Island and Maui. Much drier air is noted further northwest near Kauai closer to the ridge axis. The afternoon Lihue sounding showed PW values around 0.88, while Hilo was at 1.76.

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to continue through Monday, with showers favoring the windward and mauka areas. With the higher PW values over the eastern end of the state, we can expect a few more clouds and showers there than the western end. Expect drier air to spread over the eastern end of the state on Monday.

As a front passes north of the islands on Tuesday, moisture will once again increase over and upstream of the islands. Strong post- frontal high pressure will also begin to increase winds to locally strong levels by Tuesday afternoon, and these locally strong winds will persist through at least Thursday night. As the high pressure strengthens north of the state, moisture associated with another front will be pushed down the island chain, increasing shower chances from west to east Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

Much drier air will fill in across the state from west to east on Thursday. More typical trade wind weather with moderate to locally breezy trades and showers favoring windward and mauka locations will return from Friday through the weekend.



AVIATION
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the next 24 hours, with only a temporary diurnal weakening across the state during the overnight hours. Low clouds and showers will cause windward Big Island to continue to experience MVFR conditions overnight, with only brief periods of MVFR conditions expected across other windward areas in passing showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration across windward Big Island remains in effect this evening. Drier air upstream may allow conditions to improve overnight, but if not, then conditions will likely improve by mid morning tomorrow.

MARINE
A surface ridge sitting nearly 300 nm north of Kauai will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through Monday, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. Winds should ease slightly and become northeasterly around Kauai Monday afternoon and evening as a front approaches followed by a strong high pressure far to the northwest. As the weak front reaches Kauai late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the robust surface high to the northwest will drive increasing northeasterly trade winds and cause SCA conditions to develop around Kauai and Oahu. As the front weakens and the high moves closer on Wednesday and Thursday, northeasterly trade winds could reach near gale strength in some areas, and larges rough seas will likely contribute to a need for a SCA for all waters. A decrease in trade winds is expected heading into next weekend, but SCA conditions could persist.

A 340-350 degree north-northwest swell of around 5 ft at 12 seconds will gradually shift more northerly (350-360 degrees)
through the evening and will slowly decline through Monday night.
Even though this swell is on the way down, the change to a more northerly direction will likely produce moderate surges in Kahului and Hilo harbors through the night, and a Marine Weather Statement has been issued to highlight this. Long-period forerunners from the next northwest swell will arrive early Tuesday, and the swell will peak at 9 to 10 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the resulting surf will easily exceed High Surf Advisory levels on north and west facing shores, the peak of the swell will coincide with fresh to near gale northeasterly winds, leading to rough conditions and the potential for high surf along east facing shores due to large wind waves. On Thursday, the swell will shift out of the north-northwest and may be briefly reinforced, keeping surf elevated around the advisory level. The northerly swell is expected to decline late Friday into the weekend.

Small short-period wind waves and small wrapping northerly swell will produce moderate east shore surf into Monday, followed by a rise to around the advisory level Tuesday and Wednesday as strengthening northeasterly trade winds produce large wind waves.
Above average east shore surf and rough conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday due to fresh to near gale trade winds and additional wrapping northerly swell. A small pulse of south- southwest swell will fade on Monday.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Honuapo
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Mon -- 02:49 AM HST     2.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:14 AM HST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:07 PM HST     1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:58 PM HST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Honuapo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Napoopoo
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Mon -- 02:59 AM HST     2.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:38 AM HST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:18 AM HST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:17 PM HST     0.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:48 PM HST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:46 PM HST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM HST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Napoopoo, Kealakekua Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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