Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leilani Estates, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:44PM Saturday December 14, 2019 10:19 PM HST (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:30PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 938 Pm Hst Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through early Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet and northeast 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated light showers in the morning.
Monday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 9 feet. Isolated light showers.
Tuesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet. Isolated light showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated light showers.
Wednesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. Northwest swell 6 to 7 feet. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. Northwest swell 7 to 8 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 938 Pm Hst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Breezy trade winds will be easing off slightly through Sunday, but a new surface high pressure will bring a boost in the trades Monday through Tuesday as it passes north of the islands. Stronger trades may affect the islands later in the week, a large northwest swell will arrive Monday and peak Monday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leilani Estates, HI
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location: 19.4, -154.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 150618 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 818 PM HST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Trade winds will diminish somewhat tonight and Sunday, but will increase Monday and Tuesday before easing again Wednesday. The trade winds will continue through the week, delivering low clouds and showers to windward areas and the occasional leeward spillover.

DISCUSSION. Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1550 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a new 1026 mb high building around 1450 miles west-northwest of Kauai. In between these two highs and directly north of the state is a weakening cold frontal boundary. This boundary has begun to ease the trades a bit, but moderate to locally breezy trades persist this evening. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across most of the state, with some pockets of more extensive cloud cover in windward areas as well as across Maui County where some thicker high cloud is streaming through overhead. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the coastal waters moving onshore into windward areas, with a shower spilling into leeward locales from time to time. Main short term concerns revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances over the next few days.

The area of high pressure currently northeast of the state will retreat eastward toward the west coast of the CONUS over the next couple days as a cold front pushes eastward well to the north of the island chain. This will pave the way for the new high currently west-northwest of Kauai to build north of the state early in the work week. As a result, after a brief easing of the trades to moderate levels tonight and Sunday, we should see the trades trend back up Sunday night and become breezy once again Monday through Tuesday. This secondary high will then weaken and shift toward the west coast during the middle of the week as another front passes by to the north of the islands. This should lead to a slight easing of the trades into the moderate range once again Wednesday into Thursday. Behind this front, yet another area of high pressure will build to the north of the islands late in the work week, with breezy to locally windy conditions developing late Thursday and holding into the weekend.

As for weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather is expected to prevail through the forecast period, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas along with the occasional leeward spillover. Showers will be most common during the night and morning hours, with drier conditions expected each afternoon. There are some model differences late next week and next weekend with the large scale synoptic pattern. For now, will keep a climatological feel to the forecast until details become more clear.

We'll likely see some high clouds linger over the eastern end of the state through Sunday, before exiting to the east Sunday night. Another round of high clouds could move into the region again late in the work week and into next weekend.

AVIATION. A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds blowing through the next several days. Expect periods of cloud ceilings and showers along windward slopes of all islands. A trough passing north of the islands will weaken trade wind speeds slightly on Sunday. Tempo mountain obscurations are possible for north and east slopes of each island mainly in the overnight and early morning hours.

AIRMET TANGO remains in effect over and immediately south thru west of mountains on all islands below 9000 feet due to tempo moderate turbulence. Wind speeds may decrease enough over the next 12 hours to cancel AIRMET Tango by Sunday morning.

MARINE. Trade winds, mainly on the moderate to strong side, will take up most of the new work week. The moderate to strong trade winds will first be easing off slightly on Sunday before ramping it up again with widespread breezy trades for the first half of the new work week. This is the result of a new 1027 mb surface high passing north of the islands Monday and Monday night. The breezy trades will be dropping off slightly, and temporarily on Wednesday as this high weakens far to east-northeast of the islands, while a front passes far north of the islands. A brand new and stronger surface high of 1034 mb will then come into play with generally very windy conditions and near gale force winds in most of the channels.

With this said, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently in effect to until 6 an HST Sunday for all of the near-shore waters, due either seas of 10 feet or higher, or trade winds blowing at 23 kt or more, or the combo of both. Seas are currently at borderline SCA of 10 feet. As noted above, the trades are slated to drop off slightly through Sunday. Following suit will be the seas. So, we will be monitoring these conditions during the overnight hours. More than likely, the SCA will be extended, due to winds, favoring the waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island. As the new high nears the islands Monday, the trades will be ramping up once more, meaning the coverage of the SCA will be expanded to cover many other near-shore waters, involving elevated seas as well thanks to a new northwest swell, that will be discussed later. After a brief break on Wednesday, trades really ratchet up Thursday through Friday across all Hawaiian waters.

As with the surf, the northwest swell continues to subside. The next northwest swell is slated to arrive Monday, peak Monday evening at around 9 feet, followed by a gradual decline through Tuesday. The 9 feet and 17 second period, translates to surf in the high end of the advisory range. This swell will be reinforced by a slightly smaller northwest swell of 7 feet and 16 seconds Wednesday night. This swell peaks early Thursday. There are no other northwest swells thereafter.

With the expected boost in trades throughout the new work week, surf along east facing shores will be on the rise where it may reach the high surf advisory criteria of 8 feet for east facing shores, probably not this Tuesday, but more than likely later in the week with the stronger boost. It should be noted that waters and ocean conditions will be very rough and choppy through most of the week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters-



DISCUSSION . Jelsema AVIATION . Bohlin MARINE . Lau


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 24 mi50 min WSW 1.9 G 6 70°F 81°F1016.4 hPa
51206 26 mi34 min 79°F11 ft

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI23 mi27 minWSW 52.50 miFog/Mist71°F66°F87%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHTO

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW55W6W3CalmSW4SW7SW6SW4SW7Calm3E5SE9S5SE6E4E7S3CalmCalmW6W6SW4
1 day agoS5SW5W8SW4NE4SE6W7W9SE4S6W8S6E54SE8E5NE5NE4CalmCalmSW4SW5SW5SW5
2 days agoCalmS4S4CalmSW4SW4SW5SW6SW6CalmSE6S4SE9CalmSE10SE12SE12SE7CalmCalmCalmSW4W4E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:28 AM HST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:13 PM HST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:55 PM HST     1.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:31 PM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:43 PM HST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.62.12.62.82.82.62.21.61.10.70.40.30.30.60.91.11.21.10.80.60.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:44 AM HST     2.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:42 PM HST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:06 PM HST     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:31 PM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:02 PM HST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.71.422.62.932.82.41.91.410.80.70.811.21.31.210.70.40.1-0

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station South Shore, HI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.