Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leilani Estates, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:41PM Friday November 27, 2020 7:23 PM HST (05:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 4:22AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 340 Pm Hst Fri Nov 27 2020
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. North swell 4 feet. Scattered heavy showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Heavy showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Heavy showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered heavy showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered heavy showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered heavy showers through the day.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northwest swell 8 to 10 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 feet. Northwest swell 12 to 14 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 340 Pm Hst Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure far to the north will move further away from the islands tomorrow, weakening the trade winds to moderate levels which will hold into early next week. A dissipating front combined with an upper level feature will bring the chance for Thunderstorms over the windward waters of maui and the big island through tomorrow. A large northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leilani Estates, HI
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location: 19.4, -154.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 280149 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 349 PM HST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Moderate to breezy northeast trade winds will prevail through the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain locations. Windward shower coverage could increase tonight into Saturday as an upper disturbance and dissipating front move through from north to south. Trade winds will diminish by early next week as a cold front passes north of the state. Winds will remain on the light side as the front dissipates north of the area.

DISCUSSION. Surface high pressure is centered far to the north of the area providing for moderate to breezy northeast trade winds across the state. Meanwhile, the axis of an upper level trough is located just to the northeast of the Big Island. Pockets of moisture embedded in the trades is providing for some brief passing showers over windward and mauka areas with most leeward locations remaining dry. Expect this weather scenario to continue on through the evening hours.

Tonight and Saturday, model guidance indicates that an upper level short wave will be moving around the trough axis causing instability near the Big Island. Some increase in low level moisture is also indicated as an old frontal boundary gets caught up in the northeast trades. Some increase in windward and mauka showers can be expected as this feature moves on through. The instability caused by the short wave aloft, may allow for some heavier showers and a few thunderstorms to form over and around the Big Island tonight and Saturday.

With breezy trades in place and low dewpoint temperatures present, it will likely feel rather chilly during the overnight and early morning hours on Sunday.

By Monday, the surface high will have moved off to the northeast of the area while a frontal boundary begins to approach the area from the northwest. This will cause trade winds to back off with local land and sea breezes developing. The upper trough is forecast to linger just to the northeast of the Big Island so its associated instability may allow for higher chances for afternoon shower development over the leeward Big Island slopes. The front is forecast to dissipate to our north around mid week. Trade winds will remain on the lighter side into the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION. Pockets of showers embedded within moderate trades will bring brief MVFR cig and vsbys in advance of an approaching front. In the near term, the focus for such activity will transition from Windward Oahu to Molokai and Maui after about 03z/5PM HST where it is expected to persist for much of the night. AIRMET Sierra will likely be needed for these locations later this afternoon/evening and may eventually need to be expanded to portions of Windward Big Island.

The approaching front is forecast to be rather progressive with limited/brief impacts in terms of shower/MVFR longevity for Kauai and Oahu tonight. However, increased low level convergence may eventually enhance ongoing activity for Molokai through Maui during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Likewise, showers will increase in coverage as the front and attendant upper trough reach Big Island during the day tomorrow resulting in an increasing coverage of showers and low clouds as well as the potential for isolated thunderstorms during peak heating.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for leeward mechanical turbulence as as well as FL270-FL370 CAT.

MARINE. With a dissipating front approaching from the north and an upper level shortwave swinging through the islands, the area of thunderstorms to the east of Maui and the Big Island has been expanded some, and extended from tonight through the day tomorrow. Will need to watch the event unfold to see if the threat will continue beyond that. The bulk of the instability looks to stay just outside the coastal waters in the adjacent offshore waters.

The next significant marine feature remains the large northwest swell expected to arrive by next Wednesday morning, which is expected to produce warning level surf along north and west facing shores. Small, long period energy could reach the islands by Tuesday. This swell is being generated from a surface low coming off Japan and moving east-northeast over the weekend, passing near the Aleutian Islands early next week. The latest NWPS guidance has the long period energy reaching Kauai by Tuesday morning. Surf would likely reach advisory levels on Kauai and Oahu on Tuesday, and warning levels by Tuesday night. The swell will spread down the island chain, peaking Wednesday followed by gradual decline through Friday. Tides are currently running about half a foot above predicted levels, and high tide Wednesday morning is predicted at 2.3 feet. The high tide and surf arrival will further increase the possibility of runup on roadways during this event. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will also be needed as seas exceed 10 feet as early as Tuesday afternoon for waters near Kauai, then quickly spreading to other exposed waters Tuesday night. Seas are expected to fall below SCA levels Thursday afternoon.

High pressure north of the islands will continue to move to the northeast through tomorrow, and we are expecting trade winds to weaken some into early next week. The current SCA is in effect through tonight due to the winds. Once the winds weaken, they are expected to remain below SCA levels through the upcoming week.

A moderate northwest swell is expected to peak Saturday, with another northwest swell arriving Sunday which will maintain moderate through Monday. A small northeast swell will maintain moderate surf along east facing shores through the weekend. Without support of this swell early next week and the lighter trades, surf will be smaller along the east facing shores. Surf will be small along south facing shores through out the period, where a couple of long period pulses from the south-southwest and of south are expected through next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Leeward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.



DISCUSSION . Burke AVIATION . JVC MARINE . M Ballard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 24 mi53 min NNE 8 G 11 76°F 80°F
51206 26 mi40 min 79°F6 ft

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilo, Hilo International Airport, HI23 mi30 minNNE 410.00 miA Few Clouds77°F64°F66%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHTO

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE7NE8N11N7N11N13
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NW9NW8NW7W5W63W5NW4NW6NE4NE4N8N8N9N9N6N4
1 day agoW11W3W3W3CalmW4W5W6W8W4S5W6W6CalmW5NW5N6CalmN6NW8W3W3W5W4
2 days agoSW3W5S6SW103SW6W4W8W9SW5SW4SW3CalmS6SW7W4W6W6NW3W3NW103SW4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:06 AM HST     2.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM HST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:30 PM HST     1.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:24 PM HST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.42.52.42.21.71.30.90.70.60.711.31.51.51.310.60.30.10.10.40.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Hawaii
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Hilo
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:21 AM HST     2.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:35 AM HST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:31 PM HST     1.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:48 PM HST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.42.62.62.31.91.51.10.90.911.31.61.81.81.61.20.70.3-0-0.10.10.51.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station South Shore, HI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.