DISCUSSION

A strong high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce breezy to locally windy trade winds across the region today. Scattered clouds with isolated showers embedded in the trade wind flow will focus along windward and mauka regions.
The subtropical jet rounding an upper level low 600 to 700 miles northwest of Kauai is also sending some high clouds over the state. Models continue to show a subtle low level trough moving from east to west across the island chain tonight through Saturday. This could elevate inversion heights enough allowing for increasing shower trends, mainly over windward and mountain areas with some spillage to leeward areas of the smaller islands.
However, total precipitable water values locally and upstream will remain near to below average so this may put an upper limit shower trends.

The high will gradually weaken this weekend resulting in a decreasing wind speed trend. Trades are expected to become moderate to breezy Saturday to Sunday, before further weakening to more moderate levels from Monday onward. Some of the more wind favored areas may see brief periods of locally breezy wind speeds next week. Can expect stable and mostly dry weather trade wind weather through the rest of the forecast period. Strong and stable subsidence under an upper level ridge will continue to limit vertical cloud heights and shower development into much of next week as well as near to below average precipitable water values.



AVIATION

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will remain today and slowly decrease in strength starting tomorrow. Clouds and showers will focus primarily over windward and mountain areas with enhanced showers at night time. MVFR ceilings and visibility can be expected in any showers. Overall VFR conditions will likely prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence for areas downwind of island terrain and will likely be needed through tomorrow.



MARINE

Strong surface high pressure far northeast of the state will continue to produce strong to locally near gale force trade winds today. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaiian waters through 6 pm HST today. However, the high will weaken slightly this weekend as it drifts westward, resulting in a slight easing of the winds back to fresh to locally strong. The SCA coverage will need to be trimmed, likely by tonight, to just the typical windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island. Early next week, the aforementioned high will continue to move west and trades will ease into the gentle to fresh range.

The enhanced trades will continue to produce rough and choppy surf for the east-facing shores through the weekend. Local wind swell may wrap into select north and south facing shores. Near shore buoys this morning were indicating the arrival of a roughly 1 foot, long period south swell, which will provide small surf for south facing shores today. This will be followed by a background swell from the south- southwest on Saturday. Otherwise, no significant swells are expected for the rest of the week.



FIRE WEATHER


HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters-