Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holualoa, HI

SHORT TERM UPDATE
No updates to the forecast for tonight. Will monitor cloud and rain bands along the periphery of Fausto with weakening northerly winds steering rainfall across northern slopes.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 359 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026

Satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Fausto roughly 260 miles northeast of Hilo this afternoon. Bands of low level clouds spiraling from Fausto are moving in from the north and northeast along the breezy low level wind flow produced between a high pressure system far northwest of the state and Fausto. Radar imagery and observations continue to shows numerous to scattered, light to moderate showers focusing along windward and mauka locations with some showers spilling over to leeward areas. Hourly rainfall totals have trended down some since this morning and are now ranging between .02 to .15 inches with some of the wetter areas receiving around .25 inches.

Rainfall rates will likely pick this evening along for the western half of the state. As Tropical Storm Fausto continues a west- northwest track north of the state, winds will become light and variable over the the Big Island and Maui County this evening.
Under this light wind regime land breezes will push any diurnal showers offshore over the eastern half of the state.

On Wednesday, Fausto is expected to pass 160 miles north of Oahu allowing winds to weaken to light and variable while light southeast winds develop over Maui and the Big Island. Under this light and sheltered wind regime clouds and showers will be able to develop upslope of mountain ranges and over interior areas. Confidence in the flooding threat from Fausto remains low but localized heavy showers can not be ruled out. Thus will continue to monitor all available observations. By Wednesday night, Fausto will continue to weaken remnant low and begin to gain distance northwest of the state as breezy southeast winds fill across the island chain.

Thursday through the rest of the forecast period. A strong high will develop northeast of the state allowing breezy to locally strong trade winds to return. Expect a more typical tradewind pattern with showers focused mainly along windward and mauka areas. Drier air will also filter allowing dewpoints to dip below 70 degrees by Friday.

AVIATION
Weakening winds due to Tropical Storm Fausto moving WNW north of the islands will allow a land/sea breeze pattern to develop.
While some windward and mauka SHRA are expected in the overnight and early morning hours, SHRA are also possible in the afternoon over island interiors. MVFR conds likely within any heavier SHRA with some isol IFR conds. Otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward sections of Kauai to Maui. Conds should improve east to west in the morning hours.

Aviation interests near the Hawaiian Islands should monitor updates to TC SIGMET Sierra, which covers Fausto, as the system passes north of the islands over the next few days.

MARINE
Issued at 359 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026 Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds will be in place over the western half of the state through tonight as Tropical Storm Fausto nears the central islands. As Fausto passes by through Wednesday, winds will be light and variable over the coastal waters, followed by southerly then southeasterly winds immediately in its wake. As Fausto moves off to the northwest and high pressure builds to the north, east- northeast trades will build back in on Thursday then strengthen to fresh to locally strong levels on Friday through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windward waters and channels due to high seas from the east swell through tonight.

Nearshore buoys on the eastern side of the islands are still running high with the medium- and long-period energy from Fausto, with the buoys near Oahu and Kauai coming up as well. The surf is expected to gradually drop off tonight through Wednesday. A High Surf Warning for east facing shores remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon, but could be downgraded earlier if surf heights drop faster than expected. East shore surf will trend back up Friday into the weekend due to a combination of rising trade wind swell and a new long-period east swell generated by Hurricane Genevieve.

A series of south swells will keep south shore surf near the summer average (5-6ft) through the week. Surf along N shores could also see some brief increase as Fausto (or its remnants) pass near the region through Wednesday, then return to typical flat to tiny levels late Wednesday into the weekend.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East- Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters- Pailolo Channel.