Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holualoa, HI

DISCUSSION
Rather typical June trade wind conditions are in place. Broad high pressure north of the state is driving moderate to locally breezy trade winds, and a mid-level ridge overhead is producing very stable conditions with an inversion based between 5,000 and 6,500 ft. As a result, modest showers of mostly a quarter of an inch or less have been focused along windward areas since less night, with the highest totals on the Big Island and Maui. Expect minimal windward rainfall today, and aside from scattered afternoon and evening showers along the Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will be dry. A weak upper-level low centered west of Kauai will send thin high clouds overhead but will otherwise have no impact on local weather today.

An uptick in the trades will occur during the weekend as high pressure builds north of the islands. Breezy and gusty winds will gradually increase Saturday and peak Sunday. Little change in the shower pattern is expected over most islands, though a modest increase in rainfall is possible over Kauai as the above mentioned upper-level low drifts closer.

Trade winds and a typical pattern of mainly windward showers will persist next week. Breezy and gusty trades will hold through Tuesday then drop slightly midweek. Stable conditions will persist with no significant sources of enhanced moisture noted in the guidance.



AVIATION
Moderate to breezy trade winds will focus incoming low clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur overnight along the windward slopes, with the possibility of AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscurations. VFR conditions expected elsewhere through Saturday.

AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence leeward of mountains across all islands. This will likely continue through the weekend as trade winds strengthen.

MARINE
High pressure will build far north of the islands this weekend and will strengthen the trade winds a notch especially Sunday into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect through Sunday, but will likely need to be expanded in coverage and extended as the trades strengthen.

Surf along south facing shores will be small through Saturday. A series of small, long period, south swells originating from fetches near New Zealand will help boost surf heights near the summer average (5 feet) throughout next week. The first boost should fill in Sunday into Monday, followed by another bump Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores are expected to slightly increase this weekend into early next week due to trade winds strengthening. Surf will remain at seasonable levels (nearly flat) along north facing shores throughout the forecast period. Some select exposures could see some tradewind swell wrap.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.