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PHZ122 Big Island Windward Waters- 919 Am Hst Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of today..East winds to 30 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. North swell 11 feet. Scattered showers.
Tonight..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 10 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 8 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Wednesday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet and north 4 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet and north 4 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet and north 4 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 feet. Northwest swell 4 to 5 feet and north 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 feet. North swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.

PHZ100 919 Am Hst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure will build north of the state through midweek, then weaken Thursday as a cold front approaches. The front will stall and diminish over the western end of the state Friday into the weekend.

FXHW60 PHFO 052001 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1001 AM HST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak area of convergence is supporting increased showers across Oahu this morning. This convergence band will lift northward throughout the day, shifting focus to Kauai by this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will move rapidly eastward far north of the state, maintaining breezy trade winds through Wednesday. An approaching front will weaken winds as they veer southeasterly beginning on Thursday. This front then will stall near the western end of the state Friday into Saturday, increasing shower chances for Kauai and possibly Oahu. The front will diminish by Sunday, but another weak front will approach the islands near the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION
An area of weak low-level convergence is currently located near the Oahu this morning. This convergence is resulting in a band of increased showers moving into windward and mauka sections of Oahu within locally breezy easterly trade winds. Short-term guidance shows that convergence band will lift northward throughout the day, reaching the Kauai Channel by early afternoon and the island of Kauai by this evening. Showers will follow suit, predominately moving over Oahu through early afternoon before shifting focus to Kauai this evening and tonight. Elsewhere, showers embedded within the trades are more isolated to scattered. The forecast in the near- term has been updated to reduce shower chances across windward Maui and portions of the Big Island for the rest of the morning based on latest satellite and radar trends.

A weak cold front northeast of the state will have little impact on island weather. Surface high pressure that is currently far to the northwest will rapidly move eastward over the next 36 hours.
As this occurs, expect breezy trade winds to persist across the islands through Wednesday. By Thursday, another cold front will approach the islands from the northwest, weakening the ridge north of the state. Winds will weaken and veer more southeasterly Thursday and Friday. The latter portion of the work week also looks to be drier for most locations, as the southeasterly flow will allow showers to focus across the southeastern districts of the Big Island, with the remaining islands located in the rain shadow of Big Island's terrain.

Model guidance shows that the front will stall near the western end of the state from late Friday into Saturday. This has the potential to increase showers across Kauai and possibly Oahu throughout this period, though there remain some differences in global model solutions. Highest confidence for increased clouds and showers is for Kauai at this time, but the forecast is a bit more uncertain for Oahu and Molokai, since it will largely depend on how far south the front progresses.

This front is expected to diminish by Sunday as the trade winds return and lift the remnant clouds towards the northwest away from the state. A brief stable, dry weather pattern returns with light to moderate easterly trade winds from Sunday to Monday.
Another weak cold front approaches the islands from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Given that this is still quite far out, there is low confidence on enhanced shower trends, though trade winds will likely become breezy to strong by mid-week.

AVIATION
High pressure north of the islands will keep breezy trade winds in place through the forecast period. Lingering moisture in the trade winds will keep showery conditions in place for Oahu, Molokai, and Maui through the rest of the morning. MVFR ceilings and visibility can be expected through the rest of the morning with these showers primarily for the windward and mountain areas. Drier conditions will then be expected for Oahu, Molokai, and Oahu this afternoon.
However showery weather will then increase over windward Kauai this afternoon into the evening. Dry VFR conditions are expected over the Big Island during the next 24 hours.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Oahu, Molokai and Maui. These conditions are expected to remain in place through the morning. AIRMET Sierra may need to be expanded to windward Kauai later today.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through early Wednesday.

MARINE
Fresh to strong northeast to easterly trades associated with high pressure building north of the area will persist into Wednesday.
A combination of a large north-northwest swell building down the island chain and the strong trades will support Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions for all Hawaiian waters through Wednesday. For the second half of the week, the winds will diminish and shift out of the south to southeast as a weakening front approaches and moves into the area. Seas will respond and lower due to the lighter winds and the large north-northwest swell moving out.

Surf along exposed north and west facing shores is rising quickly this morning as a large north-northwest (330 deg) swell builds down the island chain. Early morning swell observations at the offshore buoys to the northwest appear to be peaking around the predicted levels/times. As a result, the surf will peak today at low-end warning levels, then likely lower to advisory levels tonight through Wednesday. Daily total water levels are slowly dropping due to decreasing daily tidal ranges, which will lower the chances for coastal impacts or overwash onto roadways during the high tide cycle. For the long range, guidance shows a medium- period north- northwest swell arriving Friday night through the weekend from a broad gale passing far north of the area later this week. Surf heights may reach advisory levels for north and west facing shores as this swell peaks Saturday.

Surf along east facing shores will become rough and choppy through Wednesday due to the strong trades. A downward trend is anticipated through the second half of the week as the winds diminish.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian waters-

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Hilo
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:21 AM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:32 AM HST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:03 AM HST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:03 PM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:35 PM HST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:20 PM HST     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hilo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Hilo
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:21 AM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:17 AM HST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:26 AM HST     2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:03 PM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:50 PM HST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:14 PM HST     1.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hilo, Hilo Bay, Hawaii, Tide feet

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