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PHZ121 Alenuihaha Channel- 945 Pm Hst Sat Dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet.
Sunday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet.
Sunday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 7 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves to 7 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves to 8 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 9 feet. Northwest swell 9 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 8 to 9 feet. Northwest swell 10 feet. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 8 to 9 feet. North swell 9 to 10 feet. Scattered showers.

PHZ100 945 Pm Hst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Surface ridging will build north of the state over the next couple of days. A strong high will build northwest of the state early next week then slowly track east. Easterly trades will strengthen out of the northeast to fresh to possibly locally near gale for the western half of the state Tuesday, then for the rest of state Wednesday into Thursday.

FXHW60 PHFO 100641 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 841 PM HST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry weather will persist into Monday, with the exception of a few light showers around Kauai today from a dissipating front. Expect moderate to locally breezy trade winds to build back over the islands over the next couple of days. Strong northeast trade winds may develop on Tuesday, with a potential increase in windward showers through Wednesday through the rest of the week.



DISCUSSION
No changes to the forecast for this evening, with no significant changes expected for the morning package. A weakening front north of the islands is expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours, allowing a ridge further to the north to take hold. This will see our winds transition from light and variable to moderate to locally breezy trades, with many areas around the state expected to see at least moderate trades Sunday. A front edging closer to the state Monday, but ultimately staying to the north, will help to maintain winds at moderate to local breezy levels. However a strengthening high pressure system to the far northwest will bring stronger trades to the region on the heels of the front passing to the north on Tuesday. Moisture from the front will settle over the islands mid week, resulting in a bit of an uptick in trade wind showers. Another front approaching from the north-northwest will help to boost shower activity during the second half of the week.



AVIATION

Light trade winds will gradually strengthen to become moderate tomorrow as a surface high builds to the northeast of the state and the remnants of a front just north of Kauai lift northward.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail as limited atmospheric moisture and sufficient atmospheric stability inhibit any substantial low level cloud or shower development. However, brief MVFR conditions will be possible in any showers that manage to develop, mostly over windward areas where there is slight chance of shower development tonight into tomorrow.

AIRMET Tango for moderate turbulence aloft over the Big Island was dropped earlier this evening as the upper level trough moved eastward of the area. No AIRMETs are in effect tonight and will likely not be needed into tomorrow. However, if the ridgetop flow can strengthen enough under the inversion tomorrow as the trades strengthen, will need to watch for moderate low level turbulence over and lee of the terrain...but current model guidance is showing that winds will remain under criteria.



MARINE
A weak front will dissipate over the north offshore waters tonight and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure for the next couple of days. This will translate to the gradual return of easterly trades, strengthening to moderate to locally strong Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will likely be issued early Sunday morning for typically windy zones around Maui and the Big Island. A strong front will approach the state early next week followed by a strong high. Winds will back to more of a northeasterly direction and may strengthen first over the western half of the state to fresh to locally near gale Tuesday and Wednesday then the rest of the state through the second half of next week.

A moderate size, medium period northwest (320-330 degree) swell peaked earlier this morning. The swell will gradually veer more north (340-360 degree) as it subsides through Sunday night. A large, moderate to long period northwest swell (310-360 degrees)
may produce high end advisory level or low end warning level surf late Tuesday into Wednesday, before subsiding Thursday. Early Saturday morning ASCAT show a captured fetch along the southern periphery of a gale low paralleling 40N northwest of the region.
The ASCAT past from Saturday afternoon showed this fetch area had shrunk in size and directed more away from the island chain, suggesting the swell may come in smaller than model guidance. This swell, in tandem with stronger trades, will likely prompt an all- water SCA Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Moderate choppy east shore surf will persist for the next couple of days. Above average east shore choppy conditions can be expected Tuesday through the rest of the week and trades strengthen and persist through the forecast period.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Mahukona
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Sun -- 02:12 AM HST     2.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM HST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:22 PM HST     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:58 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:23 PM HST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mahukona, Hawaii Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Kawaihae
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Sun -- 02:37 AM HST     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:35 AM HST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:59 PM HST     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:58 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:47 PM HST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kawaihae, Big Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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