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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 319 Pm Hst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through early Tuesday morning...
Tonight..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet in the morning, becoming 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less, becoming 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet in the morning, becoming 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves around 3 feet. SWell 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 feet. SWell 2 feet or less.

PHZ100 319 Pm Hst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge will hold nearly 300 nm north of kauai into Monday. As a weak front reaches kauai late Tuesday or early Wednesday, robust surface high pressure to the northwest will drive increasing northeasterly trade winds. The high will move closer to the state on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing fresh to near gale northeasterly trade winds and large rough seas. Winds are expected to ease slightly by Friday.

FXHW60 PHFO 110126 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Ridging north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds through Monday. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas, particularly over the eastern end of the state. Stronger northeast trade winds are expected to begin building across the islands by Tuesday afternoon and then persist through at least Thursday night. Shower chances will also increase across the islands from west to east Tuesday though Thursday morning before drier air returns statewide by Thursday afternoon. A return to more typical trade wind weather is expected from Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
This afternoon, high pressure is centered about 1800 miles northeast of the islands with a surface ridge axis extending from the high to just inside the offshore waters north of Kauai. With the ridge building back into the region, an advanced scatterometer (ASCAT) pass and surface observations show that moderate to locally breezy trade winds are prevailing across the islands.
CIMSS MIMIC layer precipitable water imagery continues to show that deeper moisture is being nudge northward from the tropics over the eastern end of the state, resulting in a few more windward clouds and showers across the Big Island, and to a lesser extent, Maui. Much drier air is noted further northwest near Kauai closer to the ridge axis. The afternoon 00z Lihue sounding showed that precipitable water values have dropped below 1 inch and both mid-level and low-level relative humidity were quite low.

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist across the state through Monday. Showers will favor windward and mauka sections of the islands, particularly across the eastern end of the state through tonight. Otherwise, drier air will fill back in statewide on Monday.

As a front passes north of the islands on Tuesday, moisture will once again increase over and upstream of the islands. Strong post- frontal high pressure will also begin to increase winds to locally strong levels by Tuesday afternoon, and these locally strong winds will persist through at least Thursday night. As the high pressure strengthens north of the state, moisture associated with another front will be pushed down the island chain, increasing shower chances from west to east Tuesday night through Thursday morning. With this afternoon's forecast updates, rain chances have been adjusted to better reflect the timing of latest model guidance.

Much drier air will fill in across the state from west to east on Thursday. More typical trade wind weather with moderate to locally breezy trades and showers favoring windward and mauka locations will return from Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION
Moderate to locally breezy trades are delivering pockets of MVFR clouds and showers to Windward Big Island where AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect. VFR prevails elsewhere with minimal shower coverage anticipated. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours as locally breezy trades hold firm and the lion's share of moisture remains focused over the eastern end of the state.

MARINE
A surface ridge sitting nearly 300 nm north of Kauai will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through Monday, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. Winds should ease slightly and become northeasterly around Kauai Monday afternoon and evening as a front approaches and strong following high pressure far to the northwest exerts some influence locally. As the weak front reaches Kauai late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the robust surface high to the northwest will drive increasing northeasterly trade winds and cause SCA conditions to develop around Kauai and Oahu. As the front weakens and the high moves closer on Wednesday and Thursday, northeasterly trade winds could reach near gale strength in some areas, and larges rough seas will likely contribute to a need for a SCA for all waters. A decrease in trade winds is expected heading into next weekend, but SCA conditions could persist.

A 340-350 degree north-northwest swell of around 5 ft at 12 seconds will gradually shift more northerly (350-360 degrees)
through the evening and will slowly decline through Monday night.
Even though this swell is on the way down, the change to a more northerly direction will likely produce moderate surges in Kahului and Hilo harbors through the night, and a Marine Weather Statement has been issued to highlight this. Long-period forerunners from the next northwest swell will arrive early Tuesday, and the swell will peak at 9 to 10 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the resulting surf will easily exceed High Surf Advisory levels on north and west facing shores, the peak of the swell will coincide with fresh to near gale northeasterly winds, leading to rough conditions and the potential for high surf along east facing shores due to large wind waves. On Thursday, the swell will shift out of the north-northwest and may be briefly reinforced, keeping surf elevated around the advisory level. The northerly swell is expected to decline late Friday into the weekend.

Small short-period wind waves and small wrapping northerly swell will produce moderate east shore surf into Monday, followed by a rise to around the advisory level Tuesday and Wednesday as strengthening northeasterly trade winds produce large wind waves.
Above average east shore surf and rough conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday due to fresh to near gale trade winds and additional wrapping northerly swell. A small pulse of south- southwest swell will fade on Monday.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Makena
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Sun -- 02:07 AM HST     2.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:51 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:09 AM HST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:16 PM HST     0.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:00 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:45 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:08 PM HST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
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Makena, Maui Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Kihei
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Sun -- 02:36 AM HST     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:51 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:16 AM HST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:12 PM HST     1.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:00 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:45 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:42 PM HST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kihei, Maui (Hawaii), Tide feet

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