Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 6:57 PM Moonrise 1:33 PM   Moonset 1:45 AM

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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 330 Pm Hst Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - South winds 7 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. Scattered showers this evening, then isolated showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming southeast 7 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Friday night - North northeast winds to 20 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Saturday - North northeast winds to 20 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Saturday night - North northeast winds to 20 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas to 3 feet. Sunday - North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less. Sunday night - North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less. Monday - North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less. Tuesday - North northeast winds to 20 knots, rising to 25 knots in the evening, then easing to 20 knots after midnight. Seas to 3 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

PHZ100 330 Pm Hst Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters - A kona low will remain far northwest of the area into the weekend, then slowly lift northward and away from the region Sunday through early next week.

FXHW60 PHFO 170202 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 402 PM HST Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A kona low north of the state will continue drawing unstable tropical moisture northward over the islands over the next couple of days. Bands of showers producing moderate to heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms will move over the central and western islands tonight through at least Friday. The kona low will begin to drift away from the state this weekend with improving trends over the eastern islands, while enhanced rainfall will linger over the western end of the state into Sunday. All islands will see an improvement in weather conditions next week as trade winds gradually return.

DISCUSSION
A kona low currently centered roughly 650 nautical miles north- northwest of Kauai and will continue to impact the state over the next couple of days. Latest surface analysis this afternoon continues to show a dying stationary front stretching from the kona low into the Kauai Channel near the North Shore of Oahu. An additional surface trough is located roughly 50 miles north of Kauai.

Surface observations ahead of the frontal boundary show southerly kona winds that are bringing unstable, deep tropical moisture from the tropics over the islands. CIMMS MIMIC Layer precipitable water continues to show PW values from roughly 1.5 to 2.20 inches across the state. Latest radar imagery this afternoon shows that light to moderate rain, with occasional pockets of heavier rain, are moving across the smaller islands, especially Oahu where surface convergence is maximized. Throughout the day, radar trends and observed rainfall amounts have fallen a bit short of what hi-res model guidance would have suggested, limiting overall flooding impacts to nuisance ponding on roadways, ponding in low- lying areas, and brief rises in stream levels. For the Big Island, afternoon convection has produced isolated heavy rain over the upper North Hilo and South Hilo Districts as well.

With that said, we are still expecting additional impacts tonight through at least late Friday. Overnight, we are expecting the axis of heaviest rainfall potential to shift westward back over Oahu and eventually to focus on Kauai on Friday. As showers train over already saturated areas, flash flooding will be possible and streams will become more responsive to downpours. Based on the latest guidance, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for the islands of Kahoolawe and Maui since the main impacts are expected farther west. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Lanai.

Although enhanced rainfall is expected to linger near the western end of the state throughout the weekend, drier and more stable east to southeasterly winds will begin to move into the region as a ridge builds from the east and the kona low drifts northward.
Easterly trade winds will begin to return by the middle of next week.

AVIATION
A strong kona low NNW of Kauai is pulling tropical moisture out of the south across the state. This will keep the the islands in an active weather pattern through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Moderate to heavy SHRA and possible TS are expected over the western side of the state today and tomorrow. On the Big Island, SHRA is expected this afternoon into the evening hours.
IFR/MVFR conds expected across the smaller islands especially in heavier SHRA/TS.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for for mtn obsc for Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Maui and windward Big Island.

AIRMET Sierra for IFR conds over Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Lanai.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for turb blw 120 N thru E of the Big Island.

AIRMET Zulu is in effect for light rime icing from Kauai to Maui in layer 140-FL250.

MARINE
Strong south to southeast winds associated with a kona low north- northwest of the state will persist through Friday for most waters. A shift out of the east to southeast is expected over the weekend through early next week as the low lifts northward and away from the area. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for windward and leeward Big Island waters (Hamakua Coast and waters near South Point). Expect rough seas in heavy showers or thunderstorms that develop over the next few days, especially over waters west of Maui County. Seas should remain just below advisory level over exposed Kauai waters as a short-period northwest swell moves through (peaking today through tonight).

Surf along south facing shores will remain up through early next week due to expected overlapping, long-period south-southwest swells. The first swell will peak tonight through Friday, likely reaching advisory level. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for south facing shores through Friday. Expect rough conditions for most south exposures through this period due to a combination of the onshore winds, swell, and periodic heavy showers moving through. As this swell slowly eases over the weekend, a fresh, long-period south-southwest swell will begin to fill in through the day Sunday. This will peak early next week before easing through midweek. Ongoing short-period northwest swell will keep surf along north and west facing shores below advisory thresholds.
This swell will linger into Friday, then ease through the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below average through the weekend. An upward trend is possible next week as the trades return locally and far upstream over the eastern Pacific.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Friday evening for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Lanai.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for south facing shores of all islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters.

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Kihei
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:36 AM HST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:03 PM HST     1.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:32 PM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:53 PM HST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:31 PM HST     1.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kihei, Maui (Hawaii), Tide feet

Kuheia Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:45 AM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:48 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:07 AM HST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:36 PM HST     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 PM HST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:28 PM HST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kuheia Bay, Kahoolawe Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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