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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 1011 Pm Hst Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less, becoming 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots, easing to 15 knots after midnight. Wind waves around 3 feet. SWell 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots in the morning, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell 2 feet or less.

PHZ100 1011 Pm Hst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Weak high pressure just north of the state will result in light trades tonight. High pressure building in from the northwest early next week will assist in strengthening trades from Monday through mid week. A series of passing large northwest swells will result in advisory to warning level surf along smaller island north and west facing shores this coming week.

FXHW60 PHFO 030633 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 830 PM HST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Gradually strengthening trade winds the next couple of days will deliver just a few windward showers. Trade wind speeds will likely peak on Tuesday, becoming locally strong and gusty. Winds will diminish and become light Thursday and Friday as a front approaches, with limited rainfall. The front may move over the islands next weekend, brining the chance of increased showers.

DISCUSSION
Light to locally moderate trade winds and mostly dry best describes the current weather over the islands, with satellite and radar indicating mostly clear, rain-free skies. The exception is windward and southeast Big Island and adjacent waters, where partly to mostly skies are producing a few showers. Kau's Kapapala ranch has received .42" of rain this evening. Little significant change is expected overnight, with isolated/scattered windward showers while light drainage winds in leeward areas result in mostly dry conditions.

The trade winds are being supported by surface highs to the distant NW and NE, while a weakening and lingering low NW of Kauai is keeping the local pressure gradient on the looser side. As the low continues to weaken and the high to the NW moves E on Sunday and Monday, trade winds will gradually strengthen, favoring a NE direction over Kauai and Oahu. Trades will likely be strongest on Tuesday as the high passes N of the islands, with the potential for a Wind Advisory where winds are most accelerated by terrain. The high will push a frontal band toward the islands from the N, but guidance indicates it will stall N of Kauai. A trough aloft is currently over the islands, but will soon be replaced by a ridge aloft building in from the W. Thus the strengthening trade winds are not expected to bring much more than a few brief windward showers that favor nights and mornings.

Late Wednesday and Thursday, rapidly developing low pressure to the N will force the high eastward, with the associated ridge moving over the islands. Winds will weaken and veer to the SE as an associated front approaches from the NW. Continued mostly dry weather is expected. Latest guidance suggests that this will be a weak front at our latitude, and may stall near/over the islands next weekend, bringing the potential for an increase in showers. Upper- level pattern currently does not look conducive for any heavy rain threats.

AVIATION
Light to moderate trades are expected to persist through the rest of the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state. Land breezes will likely develop during the overnight hours tonight and tomorrow night, and a few sea breezes can be expected in sheltered leeward areas during the day tomorrow. Any showers that develop will only be isolated to scattered in nature, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail for most locations throughout the forecast period. However, models are hinting that PHTO will be impacted by MVFR conditions for a good portion of tonight as trades bring in some lower clouds and showers.

There are no AIRMETs in effect, and none are anticipated through tomorrow.

MARINE
Weak ridging north of the state has maintained an anemic pressure gradient over the local waters. This synoptic scenario has resulted in a light to gentle trade wind flow pattern today. Weak high pressure to the north will allow this lighter trade pattern to remain unchanged through Monday. A better established high pressure region from the northwest builds in behind a hurricane force low that will be tracking due east across the North Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska through early Monday. This set up will tighten the pressure gradient down across the islands and strengthen trades back to fresh to locally strong magnitudes by Tuesday afternoon. These speeds will hang on through Wednesday before backing off again in response to the high north of the islands moving east and being replaced by an area of low pressure. This low may be far enough south to drag a very weak, diffuse boundary into the waters by next weekend. A potentially large swell created by the hurricane force low positioned near 43N175W tonight will send a large enough swell down our northwest great circle route and into our offshore waters Monday to prompt Small Craft Advisories (for seas) by early Tuesday morning. This will occur just before the period of strong winds across the typical windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night.

A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for the north and west- facing shores of the smaller islands through Sunday night as a result of this latest incoming slightly faster and larger-than- modeled northwest (320 degree) swell. Tonight's far northwest buoy observations indicate that this long period (15-17 second) 10 foot swell is already about 4 feet above guidance. This times the swell to begin lifting surf along Kauai's north and west shores this evening and reaching Oahu's north and west shores by midnight if not slightly before. This swell will peak Sunday, likely well above guidance, and result in solid HSA level surf through Monday. The next north northwest (330-350 degree) swell generated from the hurricane force low mentioned above is scheduled to arrive late Monday and peak Tuesday. This large, long period swell will likely drive surf to well above High Surf Warning levels Tuesday. This large swell should slowly decline from Tuesday night through rest of the week as it veers more northerly. Strengthening trades should increase eastern exposure chop and lead to rough surf from Tuesday into the middle of next week. Small background swell leading to very small surf will continue along south-facing shores throughout next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and for north facing shores of Maui.

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Kihei
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Sun -- 12:51 AM HST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:30 AM HST     2.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:04 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:48 PM HST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:44 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:56 PM HST     1.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:37 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kihei, Maui (Hawaii), Tide feet

Kihei
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Sun -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:30 AM HST     2.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:04 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:16 PM HST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:44 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:42 PM HST     1.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:37 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kihei, Maui (Hawaii) (2), Tide feet

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