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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 959 Am Hst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through early Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet.
Monday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet in the morning, becoming 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 2 feet or less, becoming 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 20 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. SWell 2 feet or less. Isolated showers.
Thursday..North winds to 25 knots. Wind waves around 3 feet. SWell 2 feet or less.

PHZ100 959 Am Hst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. Surface ridging will build north of the state over the next couple of days. A strong high will build northwest of the state early next week then slowly track east. Easterly trades will strengthen out of the northeast to fresh to possibly locally near gale for the western half of the state Wednesday, then for the rest of state Thursday.

FXHW60 PHFO 102001 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1001 AM HST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Trade winds will gradually increase to locally breezy levels through Monday with isolated to scattered showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly over the eastern end of the state. Strong northeast trade winds are expected to begin building across the islands by Tuesday afternoon and then persist through at least Thursday night. Shower chances will also increase from Tuesday though Thursday before drier air returns statewide.

DISCUSSION
This morning, surface analysis reveals high pressure centered over 1700 miles northeast of Honolulu and ridging north of the islands in the wake of an old front that is decaying and lifting back northward. With the ridge building back into the region, easterly trade wind speeds will increase across the state today, reaching moderate/locally breezy levels by this afternoon. Latest satellite and radar imagery shows that most of the clouds and showers this morning are focused across windward sections of the Big Island, and to a lesser extent, windward Maui. CIMSS MIMIC layer precipitable water imagery shows that this increase in showers over the eastern end of the state is due to an area of enhanced moisture nudging northward from the tropics. This was also evident in the early morning 12z soundings, which showed precipitable water at Hilo near 1.5 inches, while Lihue was near 1 inch. A few tweaks have been made to the forecast for rest of today based on these observations and latest model guidance.

Trade winds will continue to gradually build across the state through Monday. Showers will favor windward and mauka sections of the islands, particularly across the eastern end of the state through tonight. Otherwise, drier air will fill back in statewide on Monday. As another front passes north of the islands on Tuesday, moisture will once again increase over and upstream of the islands. Strong post-frontal high pressure will begin to increase winds to locally strong levels by Tuesday afternoon, and these locally strong winds will persist through at least Thursday night. Showers will also increase, particularly Wednesday night through Thursday, as remnant moisture is pushed south across the island chain by the building high pressure to the north. Direr air will fill in over the state from Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION
Moderate to locally breezy trades are delivering pockets of MVFR clouds and showers to Windward Big Island and Maui this morning while VFR prevails elsewhere. Showers are forecast to increasingly focus over upslope and interior zones as the day progresses before transitioning back toward the Big Island coast tonight.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Windward Maui and Big Island.

MARINE
Moderate to locally strong trade winds are building due to a surface ridge sitting roughly 300 nm north of Kauai. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. Winds will hold into Monday and should ease slightly and become northeasterly around Kauai Monday afternoon and evening as a front approaches and strong following high pressure far to the northwest exerts some influence locally. As the weak front reaches Kauai late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the robust surface high to the northwest will drive increasing northeasterly trade winds and cause SCA conditions to spread around Kauai and Oahu. As the front weakens and the high moves closer on Wednesday and Thursday, northeasterly trade winds could reach near gale strength in some areas, and larges rough seas will likely contribute to a need for a SCA for all waters. Though some decrease is expected, fresh to strong trade winds could persist into next weekend, and a SCA for some, if not all, waters will be possible.

A 340-350 degree north-northwest swell of 6 ft at 12 seconds will gradually shift more northerly (350-360 degrees) today, then slowly decline through Monday night. Even though this swell is on the way down, the change to a more northerly direction could produce moderate surges in Kahului and Hilo harbors this afternoon and tonight, and a Marine Weather Statement has been issued to highlight this. Long-period forerunners from the next northwest swell will arrive Tuesday, and the swell will shift out of the north-northwest (320-340 degrees) as the it peaks at 9 to 10 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the resulting surf will easily exceed High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels on north and west facing shores, the peak of the swell will coincide with fresh to near gale northeasterly winds, leading to rough conditions and the potential for high surf along east facing shores due to large wind waves. The primary north-northwest swell may be briefly reinforced Thursday, followed by a decline in height and period and a shift out of the north on Friday.

Moderate east shore surf will persist for the next couple of days, followed by a potentially significant rise Tuesday and Wednesday as mentioned above. Above average east shore surf and rough conditions can be expected through the rest of the week due to fresh to near gale trade winds and some wrapping northerly swell. A small pulse of south-south swell will fade tomorrow.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Hana
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Sun -- 01:26 AM HST     2.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:18 AM HST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:35 PM HST     1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:58 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:17 PM HST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hana, Maui Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Kihei
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Sun -- 02:36 AM HST     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM HST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:51 AM HST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:16 AM HST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:12 PM HST     1.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:00 PM HST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:45 PM HST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:42 PM HST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kihei, Maui (Hawaii), Tide feet

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