Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 3:27 PM   Moonset 2:47 AM

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FXUS64 KBRO 191122 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 622 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

500 mb high pressure centered along the west coast of Mexico will build northeast during the period, and will become more dominant over the BRO CWFA. This will have the effect of not only producing dry weather, but also well above normal, and increasing, temperatures. Heat index values will max out between 103 and 108 degrees today, and from 105 to 110 degrees for Monday with a couple of very isolated values of 111 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory is not anticipated to be needed for any portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the Short Term forecast period. Will likely cover the higher heat indices on Monday with a Special Weather Statement at that time.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A broad 500 mb ridge centered over northern Mexico will extend into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley leading to hot temperatures through the period. At the surface, steady southeast winds, breezy at times, will allow for plenty of low-level moisture flow to move into the region and thus keeping the very humid airmass in place. The combination of lack of deep moisture and subsidence will maintain rain-free conditions across region through the long term.

Dangerous heat will be the main concern through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures are expected in the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday afternoon with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area, except for the 80s near the coast. The triple digit heat will expand farther eastward through the week, reaching the I-69c/US 77 corridor on Wednesday. High humidity combined with the hot surface temperatures will lead to "feels like" temperatures exceeding 110 degrees at many locations and Heat Advisories may be needed on Tuesday. However, Heat Advisories will be more likely later in the week as the heat indices over 111 degrees become more widespread across the area, especially Friday into the next weekend. The latest NBM suggests that the max heat index around 116 degrees will be possible for a few locations Friday and into the Memorial Day weekend. Thus, Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches may be needed during that time. Overnight temperatures each night will remain warm with lows falling into the upper 70s to low 80s.

There is a Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts for anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration with heat indices ranging up to around 111 degrees for Tuesday through Thursday. Friday and especially into Saturday, a more widespread Extreme heat risk with heat indices 111-115+ degrees across much of Deep South Texas. This level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

In addition, fair to poor air quality is expected to prevail through the long term for much of the Rio Grande Valley due to agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south to southeast flow.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Surface observations indicate that fog is developing at the aerodromes, and a TEMPO has been included for the possibility of LIFR, especially at HRL and MFE. However, traffic cameras in the vicinity of these two aerodromes suggest that the fog might be MIFG. Otherwise, full VFR will be on display after sunrise this morning with moderate winds. A slip into MVFR may occur after sunset this evening with lighter winds and lowered clouds.

MARINE
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today through Monday: Buoy 42020 reported east winds around 10 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas slightly under 4 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. A modest pressure gradient will exist along the Lower Texas Coast through the period, with high pressure dominating over the western Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are forecast, and neither Small Craft Should Exercise Caution nor Small Craft Advisory are anticipated to be needed.

Monday night through Thursday night: Weak to moderate onshore flow with generally moderate seas will persist through the period. A locally enhanced pressure gradient could lead to Small Craft Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre each afternoon into the early evening on the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters, Tuesday through Saturday. Additionally, seas will slightly build Wednesday through late week and may lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on the offshore Gulf waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 79 95 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 78 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 80 86 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 78 92 79 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Puerto Vallarta
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Sun -- 01:38 AM CST     0.06 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:46 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM CST     0.78 meters High Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM CST     0.17 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:25 PM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:23 PM CST     1.00 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:32 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico, Tide feet

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