Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 6:59 PM Moonrise 3:09 PM   Moonset 2:45 AM

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PHZ119 Maalaea Bay- 907 Am Hst Sat May 18 2024
Rest of today - Winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming west 7 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas to 2 feet or less. Tonight - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less. Sunday - Northeast winds 7 to 10 knots in the morning, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Seas to 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Winds variable less than 10 knots. Seas to 3 feet in the evening, then to 2 feet or less. Monday - Winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming north northeast to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas to 2 feet or less. Monday night - North winds to 20 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Tuesday - North winds to 25 knots, easing to 20 knots after midnight. Seas to 3 feet. Wednesday - North winds to 25 knots. Seas to 3 feet. Wave detail: north northeast 3 feet at 3 seconds.

PHZ100 907 Am Hst Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters - A kona low will remain far northwest of the area today, then slowly lift northward and away from the region Sunday through early next week. A surface ridge will build north of the state next week.

FXHW60 PHFO 181927 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 927 AM HST Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers will continue moving over Kauai County today before the kona low that has been impacting weather across the islands for several days begins to slowly drift north and weaken. Increased showers will also be possible over Oahu this afternoon through tonight. Expect improving trends from east to west on Sunday. By Monday all islands will see an improvement in weather conditions as easterly trade winds return.

DISCUSSION
The kona low that has been impacting weather across the state for the past several days is centered about 850 miles northwest of Kauai this morning, with a trough located just west of Kauai.
Latest radar and satellite imagery shows isolated thunderstorms embedded along the main line of convergence just east of the trough. The band of showers is producing primarily light to moderate rain over Kauai at this time, though pockets of heavier rain are still possible today before the kona low begins to shift away from the state. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect for Kauai County through tonight. A few showers from this main band could reach Oahu as well today.

High pressure will slowly build in from east to west across the state through Sunday as the kona low shifts north and weakens. Of note, some of the latest hi-res guidance shows that flow around the Big Island could set up a convergence band downstream, supporting convective development in the western coastal waters this afternoon. Given the more southerly flow south of Oahu, there is the potential for this Big Island plume to move towards the island of Oahu and increase shower activity there, in addition to any showers from the main band. This pattern could also be conducive for showers to develop along the Koolau range into this evening.

Upper levels continue to show divergence aloft that will keep some instability over western end of the state. Expect more stabilizing trends with decreasing showers as east to southeast winds spread across the state. By Sunday, the moderate to heavy rainfall threat will diminish over Kauai as more stable conditions fill in across the state.

Easterly trade winds will return across the islands from Monday onward. Trade wind showers may be somewhat enhanced during the first half of next week due to lingering moisture and some upper level instability from a short wave trough. Precipitable water values will return to normal during the second half of the week, supporting a more typical trade wind pattern.

AVIATION
A trough just west of Kauai will maintain an unstable environment especially over the western half of the state. A steady stream of moisture will continue to impact Kauai today with periods of IFR conditions possible in moderate to locally heavy showers through this evening. Lingering instability near Oahu will keep periods of MVFR conditions in showers. A deep upper level trough will produce light to moderate turbulence across the state from FL280-400 through Sunday. AIRMET Tango is in effect across the state due to the upper level turbulence.

AIRMET Sierra in effect for mountain obscurations over most islands except Big Island.

Periods of light to moderate rime icing is expected from Kauai to Oahu in layer 130-FL220 especially this afternoon through tonight.
AIRMET ZULU is in effect.

MARINE
Moderate to locally strong east to southeast winds associated with a kona low far north-northwest of the state will persist over the weekend. A shift out of a more typical easterly trade wind direction is expected early next week as it lifts northward and away from the region and the ridge builds to the north. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the windier coastal waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday.

Surf along south facing shores will remain up through early next week due to overlapping, long-period south-southwest swells. The first swell will hold around the advisory level today before briefly lowering Sunday. Offshore buoy observations are holding strong with the peak energy associated with this swell now into the 14-16 second bands. The short-period wind chop added from the southerly winds will linger today, then ease as we transition back to an east to southeast wind regime by early next week. A fresh, long-period south-southwest swell will fill in through the day Sunday, then peak slightly lower than the current swell early next week before easing Tuesday through midweek.

Surf along north facing shores will steadily lower through the weekend, with a return to a more typical pattern for this time of year next week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain well below average through the weekend. An upward trend is possible next week as the trades return locally and far upstream over the eastern Pacific.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through late tonight for Niihau and Kauai.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for south facing shores of all islands.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters- Big Island Leeward Waters.

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Kahului
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Sat -- 02:46 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:50 AM HST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:31 PM HST     1.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:08 PM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:01 PM HST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:57 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:25 PM HST     1.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii, Tide feet

Kihei
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Sat -- 12:17 AM HST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:46 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM HST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:30 PM HST     1.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:08 PM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:57 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:15 PM HST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kihei, Maui (Hawaii), Tide feet

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