Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Haiku-Pauwela, HI

DISCUSSION
A 1012 mb surface low is centered 650 miles northwest of Kauai, while a 1029 mb high is centered around 1400 miles north northeast of Honolulu. Between these two features lies a band of thunderstorms along a trough of low pressure stemming from the low, which passes around 150 miles west northwest of Kauai.
Visible satellite shows cirrus clouds along the eastern flank of the band of thunderstorms are tracking across the main Hawaiian Islands. At the low levels, moderate southeast flow across the state are pushing a few clouds with isolated showers onto windward and southeast slopes, but overall mostly dry conditions expected through the day. Lingering instability could result in thunderstorm or two over the Big Island this afternoon.

The surface low will shift eastward this weekend, then dampen into a trough over the islands early next week. This will ease the east-southeast flow allowing for daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to become dominant across the state this weekend through the middle of next week. Low clouds and showers will favor leeward and interior sections in the afternoon and evening hours, and east and southeast facing slopes and coasts overnight and during the morning hours, with most showers over the coastal waters or near the immediate coast overnight. A disturbance aloft diving southward over the state could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the island chain early next week.

The trough will then fizzle out with a gradual return and strengthening of the trade winds across the state for the second half of next week featuring mainly windward and mauka showers.

AVIATION
Light to locally moderate south to southeast winds are expected today with localized sea breezes developing later this morning.
Clouds and scattered showers may produce brief MVFR conditions mostly in the vicinity of Kauai and Oahu through this afternoon.
A strong upper level jet passing just south of the state will produce a stream of high clouds and moderate upper level turbulence across the entire state today. AIRMET TANGO has been issued for moderate turbulence between FL300 and FL400.



MARINE
Locally fresh southeast winds will gradually ease and become light and variable over the weekend as low pressure northeast of the Islands slowly weakens and shifts northward. Light flow will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Trade winds will eventually return midweek.

Existing small northwest swell will continue to fade through the day today providing tiny surf for north and west facing shores.
A slightly larger long-period northwest swell is forecast to build on Saturday, peak Saturday night into Sunday, then fade through early next week. Surf is expected remain well below advisory thresholds for north and west facing shores through the coming week.

Ongoing small, medium to long period, south swell will slowly decline today with mainly small background south swell energy continuing into the weekend. A lack of upstream trades will favor near to below average surf along east facing shores.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.