Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kapalua, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:30PM Thursday February 27, 2020 4:45 AM HST (14:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 10:06PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ120 Pailolo Channel- 330 Am Hst Thu Feb 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 8 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Friday..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 9 feet. Northwest swell 5 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 9 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Isolated showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..East winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 10 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Isolated showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds to 30 knots. Wind waves 11 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 11 to 13 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 12 to 13 feet. Scattered showers.
PHZ100 330 Am Hst Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. High pressure will strengthen far north-northeast of the islands over the next couple of days. A developing disturbance aloft will bring the potential for Thunderstorms by the weekend, and an associated surface trough may develop over the area by Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kapalua CDP, HI
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location: 21.02, -156.64     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 271331 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 331 AM HST Thu Feb 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A stable and breezy trade wind flow will continue to focus modest rainfall along windward slopes through today. High pressure will strengthen northeast of the state on Friday, boosting trades further through the weekend. An upper low will drift by during this time, leading to an increase in showers, some possibly heavy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Wet conditions may persist into early next week.

DISCUSSION. There is little change in forecast philosophy from last evening. Gusty trade flow continues as a surface ridge persists far north of the main Hawaiian islands. Overnight soundings show a dry and stable airmass, with PW values around 1.0 inches and strong inversions near 7000 feet. Satellite loop shows patchy broken low clouds across windward slopes of the islands, while radar shows scattered moderate showers within these clouds. Over the next day or so, the ridge far north of the state will break down as a strengthening high moves in from the western Pacific. The ridge aloft will erode as an upper low far east of the state deepens, but stable conditions will hold with modest rainfall remaining focused over windward slopes.

Trades will increase Friday through the weekend as the surface high strengthens to around 1040 mb as it becomes parked far north-northeast of the state. However, the upper low expected to drop southeastward toward the state during this time may weaken the local surface pressure gradient, keeping the strongest trade winds to the northeast of the islands. At this time, it still appears that we will see an increase in trades, possibly requiring a Wind Advisory.

As the upper level low moves overhead, PW values will not change substantially, but very cold temperatures aloft will produce unstable conditions that will likely generate spotty showers, some briefly heavy, and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Rainfall will continue to be focused along windward slopes, but the gusty trades will easily push fast-moving, briefly heavy, showers across leeward areas. In addition, winter weather will be possible on the high summits, and freezing levels could drop low enough to affect Haleakala.

Models show the upper low dissipating and lifting northward on Monday, while an associated surface trough is pulled over the islands from the east. Trades should decrease and shift out of the southeast if the trough is strong enough. Convergence on the east side of the trough could lead to another period of wet weather for some windward areas.

AVIATION. A strong surface high located far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands will maintain gusty northeast to east trade winds through early Friday morning. As a result, AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence south through west of the higher terrain on all the islands. The latest indications from the early morning Hilo balloon sounding and most of the VAD wind profiles are that this turbulence may now be up to 9 or 10 thousand feet.

The robust low-level trade wind flow will also continue to transport low clouds with embedded showers into the northeast facing sections of the islands through this afternoon. This will produce brief periods of MVFR conditions due to lower ceilings and reduced visibilities in trade showers. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail during the daylight hours across most sections of the state. By later tonight and early Friday, the coverage of low clouds and showers may increase. As a result, expect MVFR conditions to become more widespread over the higher terrain and northeast facing slopes. This may also result in the development of mountain obscuration later today or tonight, which may require the issuance of AIRMET SIERRA over some islands.

MARINE. Strong to near gale force trade winds are expected to prevail into Sunday, with wind speeds gradually increasing as a surface high builds far N and NE of the islands. Winds are expected to be strongest from Friday night into Sunday. Forecast uncertainty increases thereafter as a potent mid-level low develops over the area, and induces a surface trough near the islands. When and where the surface trough forms, and where it moves, will have profound affects on wind speed and direction from late Sunday into next week. The forecast currently anticipates a weak trough developing just E of the islands Sunday, then moving W and sharpening somewhat Monday, with winds responding by veering to the SE and weakening. The destabilizing low aloft will bring the potential for thunderstorms from Friday into next week.

With trade winds increasing near and upstream of the islands, combined seas will build, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all zones through the weekend. Surf along E facing shores will also increase over the next several days, with surf rising to advisory-levels by Friday. Latest guidance places a belt of enhanced trade winds immediately upstream of the islands late in the weekend as the surface trough develops, leading to a surge in mid-period ENE swell/wind waves Sunday/Monday, with warning level surf along E facing shores a distinct possibility.

A High Surf Advisory (HSA) for N and W facing shores has been dropped, but another long-period WNW swell arriving today into Friday will push surf heights back up above advisory levels along exposed shores. Pending the swell's arrival at upstream buoys, a new HSA will likely be issued later today. This swell will gradually diminish through the weekend, with no other significant NW swells in the forecast through the middle of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters-



DISCUSSION . Powell AVIATION . Houston MARINE . Kinel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
51205 11 mi45 min 75°F9 ft
KLIH1 - 1615680 - Kahului Bay, Maui, HI 13 mi45 min E 14 G 21 73°F 76°F1019.9 hPa (-1.5)
51213 27 mi45 min 76°F3 ft
51202 - Mokapu Point, HI (098) 61 mi45 min 76°F8 ft

Wind History for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, HI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kahului, Kahului Airport, HI14 mi51 minENE 13 G 1810.00 miFair70°F61°F73%1020.3 hPa
Lanai City, Lanai Airport, HI23 mi49 minENE 1210.00 miOvercast67°F62°F84%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHJH

Wind History from HJH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------NE18NE15NE17
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1 day ago------------------------NE8NE13NE10
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2 days ago------------------------E9E6NE8N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Lahaina, Maui Island, Hawaii
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Lahaina
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:32 AM HST     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:57 AM HST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 PM HST     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:06 PM HST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.91.21.41.61.61.41.20.80.50.30.20.30.50.81.11.31.41.41.31.10.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Kahului, Kahului Harbor, Hawaii
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Kahului
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:19 AM HST     2.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:26 AM HST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM HST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM HST     1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:29 PM HST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM HST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:30 PM HST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.51.8221.71.40.90.60.30.30.40.71.11.41.61.61.51.310.80.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Molokai, HI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.