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PHZ120 Pailolo Channel- 347 Pm Hst Wed Nov 29 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. North swell 3 feet. Occasional heavy showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Heavy showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 15 knots, veering to southwest in the afternoon. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms with isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms with isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves around 5 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Isolated showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

PHZ100 347 Pm Hst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A kona low, currently west of kauai, will bring south to southeast winds with heavy showers and the potential for Thunderstorms through the week. Low will dissipated far west of state over the weekend as a ridge builds to the north.

FXHW60 PHFO 300103 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 303 PM HST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Moist and humid conditions with southerly winds will persist into the weekend due to a kona low located west of the islands.
Showery conditions with periods of heavy rainfall are possible each day, which will keep the threat for flooding up. In addition to the rainfall potential, thunderstorms are possible, with a few potentially becoming strong tonight through Thursday. Conditions should begin to improve Sunday through early next week as drier air moves in and the trades return.

DISCUSSION

Showers embedded within deep layer cyclonic flow out of the south will stream across the area for at least the next couple of days. In the near term, showers and locally heavy rain is focused mainly over Maui County with another surge lifting out of the south toward Kauai. Outside of thunderstorms, rain rates have been limited to under 2 inches per hour with heavy rain bands demonstrating poor organization within weakly convergent low-level southerlies. This has led to widespread 24-hour rainfall amounts in the 1-3" inch range, slightly less over Maui County. Given the lack of a front or larger scale focusing mechanism, showers will likely retain their present character going forward, namely coming in waves of loosely organized heavy rain bands. The present wave will continue lifting NE through Maui County while shortwave energy lifting toward Kauai is driving the next wave northward through the island. Periods of showers will likewise traverse the southeast-facing slopes of the Big Island. Here, forcing remains considerably less but PWATs in excess of 2" in the presence of weak isentropic ascent and broad cyclonic flow aloft will be sufficient to generate rain over favored slopes.

As noted this morning, MLCAPE On the order of 1000 j/kg over Kauai and Oahu was largely exhausted by ongoing convection. The guidance replenishes much of this instability during the overnight period leading to a conditional threat for strong to marginally severe showers/storms into early Thursday. Veered wind profiles will tend to be unfavorable for storm organization, but any particularly vigorous convection will nonetheless be capable of mixing down winds of 30-50 mph, locally higher where terrain acelerates the low-level flow. Expect any such instances of strong/severe convection to be very isolated in nature.

Conditions gradually improve during the latter half of the week as the surface low drifts west and the parent closed low aloft meanders northward. However, the resident moist and conditionally unstable airmass will remain entrenched over the area during this time likely leading to episodes of moderate to locally heavy showers over portions of the area into the weekend. Coverage and intensity will tend to diminish gradually with time.

AVIATION

A kona low west of the state will keep moderate south to southeast winds and scattered moderate to locally heavy showers across the state over the next several days. Focus will be statewide, but on different islands at different times as the low pulls in bands of showers out of the south.

Primary aviation impacts will be ceilings and visibility. AIRMET Sierra is posted for mountain obscurations over Oahu and Maui County, but could quickly as the shower bands move around, strengthen and weaken.

AIRMET Tango is in effect statewide for moderate midlevel turbulence in the 120 to FL180 layer due to wind shear and convection caused by the kona low. THis AIRMET will likely continue into Thursday.

Light icing in layered clouds will remain a concern across the islands as well. Icing potential could possibly increase to AIRMET Zulu level overnight as deep layered moisture tracks up from the south over the Big Island.

MARINE

A kona low located west of Kauai and surface high pressure far northeast of the state will produce moderate to fresh south to southeast winds across Hawaiian Coastal Waters through Friday.
Winds will shift back to trade winds this weekend as the kona low weakens to a broad trough over the state and surface ridge redevelops to the north. Chance of thunderstorms will be possible area wide through the end of the week.

A new small to moderate, medium period northwest (310-320 degree)
swell has arrived at the buoys, resulting in a rise of surf along exposed north and west facing shores that will linger through Friday. A moderate, long period northwest swell (320 degree) will start to fill in Saturday, peak near advisory level Sunday and slow subside Monday. Expect choppy conditions along south facing shores due to persistent southerly winds mixed with small, long period south swells through the week. Less choppy conditions can be expected over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores is expected to remain below average also due to persistent southerly winds. More typical choppy trade wind swell conditions will return early next week as trades return.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for all Hawaii islands-

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.

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Kamalo Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:53 AM HST     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:10 AM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:07 PM HST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:36 PM HST     0.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:01 PM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 PM HST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kamalo Harbor, Molokai Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Kaunakakai
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:28 AM HST     2.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:11 AM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:08 PM HST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM HST     0.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:45 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:01 PM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:15 PM HST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kaunakakai, Molokai (Hawaii), Tide feet

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