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PHZ115 Oahu Leeward Waters- 1000 Pm Hst Tue Nov 28 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Heavy showers.
Wednesday..South winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Heavy showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Heavy showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds.
Thursday..South winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Heavy showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds.
Thursday night..South winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. Northwest swell 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Winds variable less than 10 knots, becoming northeast 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 feet or less. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

PHZ100 1000 Pm Hst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A kona low, currently northwest of kauai, will bring southerly winds with heavy showers and the potential for Thunderstorms through the week. Light and variable winds by this weekend.

FXHW60 PHFO 290728 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 928 PM HST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Moist and humid conditions with southerly winds will persist into the weekend due to a kona low located west of the islands.
Showery conditions with periods of heavy rainfall are possible each day, which will keep the threat for flooding up. In addition to the rainfall potential, a few thunderstorms are possible.
Conditions should begin to improve early next week as drier air moves in and the trades return.

DISCUSSION
Deep tropical moisture being drawn northward over the state due to a kona low lurking to our west will support moist and humid conditions with southerly flow persisting into the weekend.
Showery conditions with periods of heavy rainfall are possible each day, which could lead to flash flooding where and if the rainfall becomes focused for a given amount of time. High- resolution model guidance reflects this potential and depicts the best chance for this activity focusing over the western end of the state and the southeast slopes and coasts of the Big Island overnight into Wednesday. Beyond this time frame, there remains some degree of uncertainty as to exactly when and where heavy rainfall will setup and become focused - with model guidance displaying quite the spread. The latest statistical QPF guidance (90th percentile) shows the best rainfall potential holding over the western and eastern end of the state through Thursday, then over the western end Friday into the weekend as the upper low begins to open and weaken.

In addition to the rainfall potential, a few thunderstorms are possible each day, especially late Wednesday through Thursday as the upper low deepens and draws closer to the western end of the state. Lowering upper heights combined with increasing deep layer shear (guidance shows a ribbon of stronger flow setting up over this area with 40-60 kt for the 0-6 km bulk shear magnitude)
could lead to a few storms becoming strong with gusty winds.

Conditions should begin to improve late in the weekend through early next week with drier air moving in and as the trades return.

AVIATION
A kona low west of the state will keep moderate southerly winds over the region for the next 24 hours. Expect widespread showers to bookend the state tonight as showers associated with the kona low west of Kauai and another disturbance to the east of the Big Island stream north. Showers across the western end of the state look to then spread eastward through the day on Wednesday. Weak instability across the state will also bring a slight chance of thunderstorms and gusty winds. Unsettled weather continues for the next several days.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. However, as shower coverage increases tonight AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration will likely be need across Kauai and may be needed across the remaining islands on Wednesday. AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence aloft may become necessary an upper low west of Kauai moves closer to the region. Tempo light icing in layered, showery clouds will remain a concern across the islands for the near future as well.



MARINE
A kona low located northwest of Kauai and surface high pressure far north to northeast of the state will produce moderate to fresh south to southeast winds across Hawaiian Coastal Waters through Wednesday. Winds will gradually weaken by Thursday becoming mainly light and variable Friday into the weekend as the kona low weakens to a broad trough over the state and surface ridge develops to the north.

Isolated thunderstorms have continued over and near Kauai and Oahu. Thunderstorms will expand in coverage across the region from Wednesday through the end of the week.

The current medium period north-northwest swell will continue to subside tonight. A new small to moderate, medium period northwest (310-320 degree) swell will arrive Wednesday, resulting in a rise of surf along exposed north and west facing shores that will linger through Friday. Expect choppy conditions along south facing shores due to persistent southerly winds mixed with small, long period south swells through the week. Surf along east facing shores is expected to remain below average also due to persistent southerly winds.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Niihau-Kauai Leeward- Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward.

Flood Watch from 6 AM HST Wednesday through Thursday afternoon for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West- Haleakala Summit-Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Big Island Summits-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

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Moku o Loe
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:07 AM HST     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:16 AM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:09 PM HST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:49 PM HST     0.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:48 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:04 PM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:57 PM HST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moku o Loe, Kaneohe Bay Oahu Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Waikane
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:45 AM HST     2.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM HST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:15 AM HST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:05 PM HST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 PM HST     0.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM HST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:04 PM HST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:53 PM HST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Waikane, Kaneohe Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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