Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kahaluu, HI

SHORT TERM UPDATE
Issued at 825 PM HST Tue Mar 3 2026

IR satellite loop this evening showed a scattering of cirrus clouds spreading slowly west to east over the island chain.
Meanwhile, in the lower levels, some low level cumulus caught in the trades were noted moving quickly westward. The 00Z sounding at Hilo and Lihue both indicated a rather shallow inversion height, somewhere between 5,000 to 6,000 feet. This has acted to put a lid on shower activity today with isolated coverage at best. Only a handful of sites picked up a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall along windward locations of the smaller islands.
The greatest coverage of showers continues to be over Kohala mountain range in northwestern Big Island where rainfall totals, since this afternoon, have approached half an inch. In the update, made slight adjustments to increase precipitation chances tonight over the Kohala mountains and decreased chances in northeast and eastern portions of the Big Island to follow current trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track and no other updates were needed.

The pattern will change very little through Wednesday as a area of surface high pressure remains anchored to the northeast of the state and will continue to drive moderate to locally breezy easterly trades.

PREV DISCUSSION
Visible satellite imagery shows a much drier scene this afternoon compared to this morning, with abundant sunshine across the state and only limited low clouds and isolated light showers moving into windward and mauka areas. Although the trade flow remains primarily out of the east, the low-level steering flow is beginning to take on a slight southerly component, as evidenced by clouds and showers moving more parallel to the island chain in an east-southeast direction.

High pressure to the northeast of the state will continue to build through midweek, bringing increased stability and strengthening trades through Wednesday. Limited clouds and light showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas through this period, especially during the overnight to early morning hours, along with the Kona slopes of the Big Island during the afternoon hours.

By Thursday, winds will veer out of a more east-southeast direction as a cold front approaches from the northwest. In this pattern, showers will favor southeast and east facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, along with interior portions of the other islands due to the development of sea breezes in the lighter, somewhat blocked flow. Model guidance remains in good agreement through this period, showing this front stalling just to the west of the state as its parent low shoots off to the far northwest.

The evolution of weather features in the Pacific becomes less clear over the weekend as model spread increases. The GFS and the ECMWF both show a deep mid- to upper-level trough developing northwest of the state, spawning a surface low to the west- northwest. Strengthening southerly flow between that low and high pressure to our northeast could draw deep tropical moisture (with precipitable water values near 2 inches) toward or over the western end of the state early to mid next week. The exact placement of this moisture band and the strength of the southerly winds remain uncertain and will be monitored closely in the coming days.

AVIATION
Stable trade winds will strengthen to fresh to strong levels and become more easterly tonight into Wednesday, delivering clouds and showers mainly windward and mauka. Pockets of MVFR are likely, but VFR is forecast to prevail during this time. AIRMET Tango for lee turb is in effect and will should remain in place through Wednesday.

MARINE
Issued at 825 PM HST Tue Mar 3 2026 Fresh to strong trade winds will strengthen and become increasingly easterly on Wednesday as surface high pressure strengthens far northeast of the islands. Wednesday night into Thursday, winds will veer out of the east-southeast around Oahu and Kauai as the high drifts eastward and a front approaches the state from the northwest. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for most of the waters around the Big Island and Maui through Thursday morning where winds will be strongest. Minor adjustments will need to be made, but the SCA will likely continue for the typical windier waters through the weekend. As a cold frontal low slowly advances toward the islands from the west early next week, local winds could veer increasingly southerly.

The small, decreasing northwest swell will continue its gradual decline through Thursday. A small west-northwest swell will arrive on Friday and hold through the weekend, followed by a small west-northwest swell early next week. There may also be very small northerly swell late this week into the weekend. Choppy east shore surf will build to near seasonal average by Wednesday as trade winds strengthen over and east of the islands. Little change is expected along east facing shores through the weekend, followed by a possible decline early next week if winds veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small to tiny through the weekend, and some islands may see an increase in choppy surf if southerly winds develop early next week.

A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through early Wednesday morning due to the combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels that are running higher than predicted.
This may lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low- lying coastal areas during the high tide between midnight and daybreak. The Coastal Flood Statement will likely be canceled by Wednesday morning.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.