Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Haleiwa, HI

SHORT TERM UPDATE
Issued at 800 PM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

IR satellite imagery loop from this evening showed pockets of mid and upper level clouds meandering over Maui County and the Big Island. Elsewhere, mainly clear skies prevailed with a few low level cumulus riding in on the trades. RADAR had been rather quiet this afternoon across the western end of the state with just a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall accumulation reported along windward locations. Sea breeze development helped generate moderate showers over select locations on the Big Island leeward slopes, such as Keahuolu, Kawainui Stream near Waimea, and Waikii, all of whom picked up between a quarter to half inch of rainfall.

Shower coverage off the windward coasts of most islands has been slowly increasing over the last hour or two. This trend is expected to continue though the remainder of tonight as high pressure strengthens northeast of the state and brings more robust easterly trade flow. The gridded forecast is still on track, so no modifications were needed. Surface high pressure will remain anchored northeast of the state the next several days and bring locally breezy easterly trades and scattered night and early morning windward showers.

PREV DISCUSSION
The broad band of high- and mid-level clouds currently over the islands, tied to a weakening upper-level disturbance and deeper moisture plume, will continue to thin and gradually clear through tonight. As this feature departs, high pressure building to the northeast will tighten the local pressure gradient, strengthening easterly trade winds into the moderate to locally breezy range through Wednesday. This will usher in drier air and a more stable airmass statewide by midweek.

By Thursday, winds will ease slightly and veer more east- southeast as the surface high shifts farther northeast and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Model guidance remains in good agreement that the front will draw closer late in the week but likely stall west of the islands. The boundary is then expected to lift northward over the weekend as a deep low tracks well northwest of the state. As the large-scale flow weakens during this period, local sea breezes will likely develop along terrain-sheltered slopes. Shower activity should remain limited through the end of the week, with mainly brief passing showers.

Looking ahead to early next week, another front approaching from the west could bring the next opportunity for more widespread unsettled weather as southerly flow develops. Details will continue to be refined over the coming days.

AVIATION
Trade winds have begun to gradually return across the state today at light to moderate speeds. Expect these trade winds to continue strengthening tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds are still over the islands from Oahu to the Big Island, but will continue to move out of the area through tonight. Expect brief showers to start focusing over typical windward and mountain areas, with MVFR conditions expected within showers and VFR conditions elsewhere.

AIRMET Tango is in effect across the islands for upper level moderate turbulence between FL280-FL360. AIRMET Tango is also in effect for mid level moderate turbulence from Oahu to Big Island between 140-FL200. The mid level turbulence will likely weaken by this evening, while the upper level turbulence will likely continue through most of tonight, but on a weakening trend. Light icing is possible in a layer between 130-FL230 due to the mid- upper level clouds currently over the state.

MARINE
Issued at 800 PM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

Building surface high pressure north of the islands will strengthen and drift northeast through the week bringing moderate to locally strong east to east south east winds through Wednesday.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Tuesday. As the winds veer, the SCA will expand to add Maui County and Big Island windward waters through Wednesday afternoon. Looking towards the ending of the week, winds look to veer to the east southeast and weaken slightly as the ridge moves closer to the islands.

The current moderate medium period northwest swell has peaked this afternoon below High Surf Advisory levels and will gradually decline through the rest of the week. The next small to moderate northwest swell looks to build in Saturday and hold through the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state. This will keep surf along exposed east-facing shores somewhat elevated.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small to tiny, with no significant swells forecast for at least the next several days.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.