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PHZ114 Oahu Windward Waters- 333 Pm Hst Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 11 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 6 feet. Northwest swell 11 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Tuesday night..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves to 7 feet. Northwest swell 9 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. Northwest swell 7 to 8 feet. Scattered showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves around 5 feet. North swell 5 to 6 feet. Scattered showers.

PHZ100 333 Pm Hst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A ridge of high pressure building just north of the state will bring the return of our trade winds, with trade winds strengthening further late Monday into Tuesday as a high builds far northwest of the state. The current northwest swell will be followed by larger northwest swell which should quickly fill in late Monday and peak on Tuesday.

FXHW60 PHFO 030200 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 400 PM HST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A return to trade wind weather tonight with showers favoring windward slopes. The trades will gradually strengthen through Monday, with breezy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching front will gradually ease the trade winds and shift them around to the southeast late next week.

DISCUSSION
Currently at the surface, a decaying kona low is located around 425 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a ridge passes to the north and northeast resulting in light east to east-southeast winds over the state. Visible satellite shows cloud build ups over the interior and leeward sides of the islands due to the light winds and resulting sea breeze convergence. Radar shows little precipitation around the state except for some minor showers popping up over the interior Big Island.

The kona low will gradually weaken into a trough tonight, with the ridge building in. Trade winds will become moderate late tonight into Sunday with increasing showers building east to west and focusing over windward locations. The trades will strengthen further on Monday and become breezy Tuesday and Wednesday as a new high builds in north of the state. Clouds and showers will continue to be terrain induced with little change to the overall airmass moving in. The trades will gradually ease and shift southeasterly Thursday and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest.

AVIATION
Light trade winds are prevailing across the islands this afternoon, which has allowed sea breezes to develop in sheltered leeward locations. Afternoon radar imagery shows very few showers occurring across the state, though lingering moisture and instability will still support the chance for a few showers in the near-term. Isolated thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out over the Big Island slopes through early evening, though chances are low.

As high pressure builds north of the state, trades are expected to maintain light to moderate speeds through Sunday, with land breezes tonight and sea breezes developing again during the day on Sunday in sheltered locations. Regardless, any showers that develop will only be isolated to scattered in nature, and VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail for most locations throughout the forecast period.

There are no AIRMETs in effect, and none are anticipated through tonight.

MARINE
Main change since this morning's forecast was the issuance of a High Surf Advisory (HSA) for the incoming northwest swell. Most recent observations from the buoys indicate the swell is coming in about 1-2 feet above guidance. The HSA was issued for north and west facing shores of the smaller islands through Sunday night given that the swell has arrived earlier and larger than expected.

High pressure building north of the state this weekend will allow light to moderate trade winds to return over the coastal and southern offshore waters. Trades are expected to strengthen further late Sunday and into Monday. A new high will build far northwest of the state early next week, which will strengthen the trade winds to strong speeds by Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will return for the typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island on Tuesday and could potentially expand to other areas late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The kona low continues to weaken west of the state, but is still producing some thunderstorms over the northwestern half of the offshore waters, which should diminish overnight.

As mentioned above, a new long-period (19 second) northwest (320 degree) swell has already reached the northwest buoys. Surf along exposed shores is expected to be on the increase this afternoon and overnight. This swell is expected to peak tomorrow, however with it arriving earlier and larger than guidance, the advisory level surf may linger into Monday.

A developing Hurricane Force Low in the northwest Pacific is expected to track eastward as it further intensifies over the next few days. The north-northwest (330 to 340 degree) swell generated from this source should arrive late Monday and peak Monday night into Tuesday near High Surf Warning levels. This swell should slowly decline Tuesday night through rest of the week, while the swell direction veers more northerly.

Small background surf will continue along south facing shores throughout next week. Strengthening trades should bring an increase of choppy and rough surf along east facing shores Tuesday into middle of next week.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and for north facing shores of Maui.

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Haleiwa
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Sat -- 06:41 AM HST     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:36 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:55 PM HST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:48 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:08 PM HST     0.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:11 PM HST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:51 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Haleiwa, Waialua Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Laie Bay
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Sat -- 05:58 AM HST     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:36 AM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:14 PM HST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:48 PM HST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:25 PM HST     0.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:30 PM HST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:51 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Laie Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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