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PHZ114 Oahu Windward Waters- 957 Am Hst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late this afternoon...
Rest of today..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 9 feet. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. North swell 8 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 7 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 6 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Monday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 5 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. Northwest swell 10 to 12 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. North swell 10 to 12 feet. Scattered showers.

PHZ100 957 Am Hst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. The tail end of a stalled front over the northwest waters will wash out as weak high pressure passes north of the islands today. The passage of a moderate size, medium period northwest swell through today will elevate seas across the windward waters, including niihau and kauai's west waters, through tonight. Surface ridging will subtly strengthen as it moves off to the northeast into Sunday and this will ultimately produce moderate to locally fresh trades through eastern island bays and channels by Sunday evening.

FXHW60 PHFO 091937 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 937 AM HST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry weather will persist for the next day or so, with the exception of a few light showers around Kauai today from a dissipating front. Light and variable winds will continue today, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds returning tonight into early next week.
Strong northeast trade winds may develop on Tuesday, with a potential increase in windward showers through Wednesday through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Dry and stable conditions prevail this morning as evidenced by the lack of low-level cu/stratocu over area waters. An upper trough advancing through the forecast area has weakened the inversion per this morning's Lihue and Hilo soundings, but the dry resident airmass nonetheless caps any shower notable shower potential this morning and for the remainder of today. The remnant frontal zone approaching Kauai has ceased forward progress as it becomes an increasingly shallow feature butting up against strengthening southeasterly flow. A few showers will be possible in the vicinity of Kauai, but limited moisture and forcing significantly limit any potential there. A progressive mid-latitude pattern ensures the next front in the sequence reaches (or nearly reaches) the western portion of the island chain early next week. Post-frontal high pressure will strengthen beneath amplifying ridging aloft prior to building into the area. This will in turn bring a period of breezy to locally strong trades during the early to middle portion of next week.

AVIATION

Weak trade winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds far northeast of the state and a decaying stationary front near Kauai lifts northward. Moisture along the dissipating front is hung up on windward Kauai, where AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in place. Expect improving conditions on windward Kauai during the next couple of hours. Aside from locally broken low clouds on windward Big Island, VFR conditions and little cloud cover prevail elsewhere.
Under the weak trade wind flow, afternoon sea breezes will lead to low clouds over interior and mauka areas, though little rain will fall and VFR should dominate.

An upper level trough centered near Maui will slowly move to the east today. This feature is generating a shield of high clouds east of the Big Island and is creating mid to upper level turbulence necessitating AIRMET Tango over the state. The AIRMET will likely be dropped for the western half of the island chain by noon, and the upper trough may produce stronger turbulence farther northeast of Hawaii later today or tonight.

MARINE

The tail end of a stalled front over the northwest waters will wash out as weak high pressure passes north of the islands today.
A moderate size, medium period northwest swell passing through today will elevate seas to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) heights across all windward waters including Niihau and Kauai's west waters. Surface ridging will subtly strengthen as it moves off to the northeast into Sunday and produce a slightly tighter pressure gradient back across the state. This will awaken moderate to locally fresh trades through eastern island bays and channels by Sunday evening. This scenario will likely require an expansion of the SCA into the typically windier zones around Maui County and Big Island by Monday morning. The next front will advance in from the northwest Tuesday and introduce a brief weakening of downstream trades as west water winds back northeast and strengthen to fresh magnitudes Tuesday night. Backing high pressure behind the front will expand southeast and support a gradient tight enough to result in a day of fresh to locally strong trades Wednesday.

A moderate size, medium period northwest (320-330 degree) swell will peak today. This will result in double to near triple head high surf heights along better exposed smaller island north and west-facing shorelines through the day. The swell will gradually veer more north (340-360 degree) as it slowly falls from tonight into Monday. A captured fetch along the backside of a small gale low paralleling 40N northwest of the region will create and push a larger, medium period north (340-010 degree) swell into the local waters Tuesday and Wednesday. This may lift surf heights to near High Surf Warning levels along better-exposed northern shores late Tuesday into Wednesday. This swell, in tandem with stronger trades, will likely prompt an all-water SCA Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strengthened mid-week trades will result in more elevated short period chop along eastern exposures.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Oahu North Shore-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters.

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Haleiwa
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Sat -- 01:02 AM HST     1.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:55 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM HST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:03 PM HST     0.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:05 PM HST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM HST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Haleiwa, Waialua Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Laie Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:19 AM HST     2.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:54 AM HST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:58 AM HST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM HST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:20 AM HST     1.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM HST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:24 PM HST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM HST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Laie Bay, Oahu Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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