Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaumakani, HI

DISCUSSION
Currently at the surface, a weak diffuse trough of low pressure is located near Kauai, while a 1031 mb high is centered around 1750 miles northeast of Honolulu. Winds remain light across the state, with land breezes present in most areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy conditions across most of the state. Radar imagery shows scattered light showers over east and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with a few showers brushing the leeward Big Island coast as well as the windward coast of Oahu. Elsewhere, shower activity remains out over the coastal waters. Main short term focus revolves around the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms during the next couple days.

The weak trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary over the smaller islands today through Tuesday. Winds will change little during this time, with land and sea breezes dominant over most of the state. The troughing over the islands will gradually dampen out during the middle and latter part of the week as high pressure builds to the north. This should allow a gradual return and strengthening of the trade winds across the state, with the trades reaching breezy levels Friday through the weekend.

As for the remaining weather details, a land/sea breeze pattern will remain in place during the next couple days, with showers favoring interior and leeward areas during the afternoon and evening hours, and remaining mostly over the coastal waters or areas near the immediate coast at night. The airmass will remain moist and unstable today through Tuesday as a disturbance aloft dives southward over the state. This should continue to bring some locally heavy showers and a few thunderstorms to the island chain, particularly during the afternoon hours. A return to more typical trade wind weather featuring mainly windward and mauka showers appears take hold Wednesday, with this pattern then persisting through next weekend.

Volcanic emissions and light background southeast flow will keep vog in place over most of the state through Tuesday. The returning trades should clear the vog out of the smaller islands by late Wednesday.

AVIATION
A low pressure trough over the islands will allow for an unsettled land and sea breeze pattern to persist across the state today. Sea breezes will develop during the afternoon and lead to showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms over mainly interior regions, followed by clearing with land breezes at night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility can be expected with some of the more robust activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

MARINE
A trough of low pressure near Kauai continues to weaken the high pressure ridge over the eastern Hawaiian Islands. This diffuse trough may bring some heavier showers and thunderstorms to the nearby coastal and offshore waters. This boundary is expected to slowly shift east over the next 24 hours, increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal and offshore waters. Light and variable winds will continue into the Tuesday. Trades will build back in from Wednesday onward as a high pressure system builds in north of the Hawaii Region.

A small long period northwest swell will slowly fade into Tuesday. Surf along north and west facing shores should remain near or below average levels for this time of year. By Thursday, a medium long period north-northwest swell is expected to arrive, producing surf that will likely remain below advisory levels.

Multiple small early season south swells will maintain small background southerly energy through Tuesday. A bump up in south swell energy will arrive on Wednesday, peaking early Thursday, and then slowly fading through the weekend. Weak upstream trade wind flow will keep surf on the small side for east facing shores.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.