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PHZ111 Kauai Windward Waters- 308 Pm Hst Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Numerous showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Scattered showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 6 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves to 3 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Wind waves to 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 feet. Scattered showers, mainly in the morning.
Monday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves to 5 feet. North swell 9 feet. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 to 7 feet. North swell 8 to 9 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves around 6 feet. North swell 6 to 7 feet. Scattered showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

PHZ100 308 Pm Hst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A kona low west-northwest of the hawaiian islands will continue to produce southeast to south winds with bands of showers, and isolated Thunderstorms are still a possibility. The kona low will weaken this weekend as the ridge builds in north of the islands. Expect gentle to fresh trade winds spreading across the region from Saturday to Sunday, strengthening to fresh to strong trade winds from Monday onward.

FXHW60 PHFO 020156 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 356 PM HST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS

A kona low northwest of the islands will continue to support light to moderate showers, especially across the western half of the state, tonight through early Saturday. However, as the low breaks down through the first half of the weekend, its effects on island weather will gradually diminish. Drier and more stable air will move into the region late this weekend and into next week as trade winds return. More typical trade wind weather is expected throughout the work week.

DISCUSSION
This afternoon, a kona low is located just over 400 miles northwest of Kauai while a surface high is located about 1550 miles to the northeast. Latest satellite and radar imagery shows that southerly flow associated with the kona low continues to bring deep tropical moisture over the islands, which has allowed light to moderate showers to persist across the western half of the state today, especially across the islands of Oahu and Molokai. Despite the persistent shower activity, 12 hour rainfall totals (2am to 2pm HST) at gauges across Oahu still largely remain below 1 inch. Brief heavier rain was observed across portions of Molokai earlier today, resulting in a little more than an inch and a half at Puu Alii and a brief but sharp rise in the Halawa Stream. More recently, however, the stream's levels have declined as rain rates have dropped. VAD wind profiles and afternoon 00z soundings do show that some 0-6km bulk shear is lingering in the area, though thunder activity so far today has been widely isolated and confined to over the water.

The surface kona low is forecast to become de-coupled from the low aloft beginning this evening. The low aloft will begin to translate eastward as a mid/upper trough while the surface low weakens into a trough and remains northwest of the islands. As this de-coupling commences, light to moderate rain will continue in the meantime, especially across the western and central islands. However, as the kona low breaks down and upper jet dynamics become less favorable for large scale forcing for ascent, the overall threat of widespread heavy rainfall that would lead to flash flooding appears to be diminishing, and will continue to diminish over the next 12-18 hours. With that in mind, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for all islands.

Although the kona low will be breaking down over the next 12-18 hours, the upper trough will continue to linger near the islands through Saturday. Therefore, we cannot rule out the slight chance for thunderstorms (particularly over the western islands and the Big Island slopes during the afternoon) through Saturday, though overall impacts are expected to be more localized when compared to the previous few days. A slight chance for an afternoon thunderstorm over the Big Island slopes will be possible again on Sunday afternoon as well.

By Saturday night and Sunday, a much more stable airmass will become established over the islands as trade winds begin to return. The trades will strengthen early next week, with stable trade wind weather prevailing through the middle of the week.
Isolated to scattered showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas throughout the week, especially during the overnight through morning hours each day. Models indicate that the trades may ease late next week as a new front approaches from the west.

AVIATION
Tropical moisture continues to stream north over the islands as the kona low remains to the northwest of Kauai. This will keep the threat for periods of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms across the state, with periods of MVFR or lower possible with heavier showers through Saturday. Conditions are expected to gradually improve on Saturday and the kona low starts to dissipate.

Will continue to see turbulence and icing associated with any TS that develops. AIRMET Tango for moderate mid-level turbulence will continue due to wind shear in the layer between 100-FL270. Light icing in layered clouds between 120-FL270 will also remain a threat through Saturday. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will remain in effect for Oahu and Maui County islands into Saturday, but will probably be able to drop Oahu from the AIRMET sometime tonight as the focus shifts to the east.

MARINE
The kona low to the west-northwest of the islands continues to bring southerly winds to the region, along with showers and still some isolated thunderstorms. The low will be weakening and moving away from the region this weekend, allowing trade winds to start filtering in, first over the southern waters, and spreading northward. Thunderstorm chances over the coastal waters will be diminishing through Saturday, and linger into Saturday night over the offshore waters to the northwest.

The kona low will weaken this weekend as the ridge builds in north of the islands. Expect gentle to fresh trade winds to spread across the region from Saturday to Sunday, strengthening to fresh to strong trade winds from Monday onward. The current Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled as winds have decreased below advisory levels. However as trade winds increase early next week, expect another SCA to be posted.

The recent small to moderate, medium period northwest (320 degree) swell will gradually decline through Saturday. The next moderate size, longer period northwest (320 degree) swell will arrive and begin to fill in Saturday afternoon and evening. This swell will peak surf to near High Surf Advisory (HSA) heights by Sunday, then slowly subside Monday. A reinforcing north northwest (330-340 degree) swell arriving by Monday night and may lift surf heights well above HSA thresholds and approach High Surf Warning levels on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Small surf continues along south facing shores with small background south swell pulses Monday and Thursday. Strengthening trades through next week will build surf heights along east facing shores.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Hanalei Bay
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Fri -- 05:28 AM HST     2.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:03 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:26 PM HST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:03 PM HST     0.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:38 PM HST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:02 PM HST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hanalei Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Hanamaulu Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:39 AM HST     2.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM HST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:02 AM HST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:52 PM HST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM HST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:14 PM HST     0.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:02 PM HST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:04 PM HST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hanamaulu Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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