Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:04 PM Moonrise 12:01 PM   Moonset 12:49 AM

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PHZ111 Kauai Windward Waters- 904 Am Hst Tue May 14 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 3 feet at 11 seconds. Scattered showers. Tonight - South southwest winds 7 to 10 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas to 5 feet. Wave detail: east southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 3 feet at 14 seconds. Scattered showers. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 5 seconds, northwest 3 feet at 12 seconds and south 3 feet at 16 seconds. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Wednesday night - West northwest winds to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Wave detail: northwest 6 feet at 11 seconds, east 3 feet at 5 seconds and south 3 feet at 15 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thursday - Northwest winds 7 to 10 knots in the morning, becoming variable less than 10 knots. Seas 7 to 8 feet. Wave detail: northwest 7 feet at 10 seconds, east southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds and south 3 feet at 18 seconds. Scattered showers. Thursday night - Winds variable less than 10 knots. Seas 7 to 8 feet. Wave detail: north northwest 7 feet at 11 seconds, east 3 feet at 6 seconds and south 3 feet at 17 seconds. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Friday - South winds 7 to 10 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Wave detail: northwest 7 feet at 11 seconds, east southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds and south 3 feet at 16 seconds. Showers likely in the morning, then occasional heavy showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Saturday - South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, rising to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Wave detail: east 6 feet at 7 seconds, northwest 4 feet at 10 seconds and south 3 feet at 15 seconds. Occasional showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

PHZ100 904 Am Hst Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters - A cold front will approach the state from the northwest this evening, pass over kauai tomorrow night, and stall over oahu late Thursday. The front will then weaken into a trough and shift westward Friday. Slight chance of Thunderstorms starting Wednesday night and continuing into the weekend.

FXHW60 PHFO 142015 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1015 AM HST Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A lingering upper level low northeast of the islands is keeping the local airmass relatively moist and unstable. Spotty, hit-or- miss heavy downpours will continue to be possible over the next couple of days. A late season kona low will develop several hundred miles north of the islands Tuesday night, and then meander around well northwest of the islands the rest of the week. The kona low will turn our winds southerly as early as Tuesday, and eventually tap into deep tropical moisture lurking south of the islands. This will cause a slow-moving band of showers, some heavy, and a few embedded thunderstorms over some parts of the state for the second half of the week. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a concern.

DISCUSSION
A kona low developing north of the state tonight will bring a multi-day heavy rain event starting as early as tonight. The best way to describe this event, is like a fire hose shooting water. A steady stream of rain will be concentrated along a band and will steadily move east through Wednesday night then stall somewhere around Oahu or Maui County then shift back westward towards Kauai on Friday. The most likely area for the heaviest rain would be in areas under the fire hose, especially leeward areas.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...
Showers increasing through the day especially over the western half of the state. By Wed afternoon, a frontal boundary approaching Kauai will enhance the lift and instability ahead of the front. Models are showing CAPE values of around 1400 j/kg with precipitable water values increasing to around 1.80 inches.
This will allow for heavy bands of rain to develop with embedded thunderstorms along the convergent bands starting around Wednesday afternoon over Oahu and expanding eastward towards Maui County late afternoon through the evening. Confidence for heavy rain is highest over Oahu with some uncertainty on how far eastward the band of heavy rain will shift late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night... Moderate to locally breezy southerly winds will continue to pump up moisture form the south with a steady stream of rain focused over Oahu and Maui county.
Instability does decrease slightly, which could help decrease the rain rates a touch. But nonetheless, a steady stream of moisture with prolonged periods of moderate to locally heavy rain will persist around Oahu and Maui County throughout the day.

Friday and Friday night...
As the kona low shifts westward, the associated convergent bands will begin to shift westward towards Kauai. Winds will pick up and become breezy out of the southeast direction over the eastern end of the state with drier air approaching the eastern half of the state. With the drier air moving in from the east, this will decrease the chance for any flooding impacts, but showers will still be possible. Over on the western half of the state, especially Kauai, moisture is expected to ramp up and a steady stream of rain will be moving in from the south impacting many leeward areas. For Oahu, with the steady stream of rain focused mainly over Kauai, the rain will likely not be as widespread, but showery weather should persist for most of the day. By Friday night, the main concern will be over Kauai.

Saturday and Sunday...
As the band of convergence shifts towards Kauai over the weekend, even more copious moisture (TPW near or possibly even in excess of 2 inches) will be pulled northward toward Kauai and possibly Oahu. A shortwave aloft rotating around the kona low and favorable jet difluence along may help to enhance rainfall even more. This scenario is less confident, however, since the band may slow to a crawl and intensify mostly west of the Garden Isle over the weekend. Also, there is the possibility for one or more thunderstorm complexes to develop SW of the islands that might rob us of some moisture and instability. Nevertheless, we want to stress that this is the type of pattern that can lead to some pretty serious flooding. We will continue to monitor the situation and expect that details will become more clear as we get closer.

AVIATION
An unstable and moist airmass remains in place due to a upper level low northeast of the islands. In the meantime a low is developing northwest and will move closer to the islands and become a Kona low. SHRA is possible off and on through the forecast period. MVFR conds are also possible in those heavier SHRA. Light to moderate southeasterlies will veer more southerly through the day.

No AIRMETs currently in effect. However, this will be watched and an AIRMET for mtn obsc may be needed at least for the smaller islands.

MARINE
Light to moderate southeast to south winds will persist today into Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops 450 nm north of the state. A cold front extending from the low will pass over the western islands early evening Wednesday then stall near or over the central islands Thursday. The front will then rapidly weaken into a trough and shift westward Friday. Scattered heavy showers are possible through the week with the threat of thunderstorms developing Wednesday evening and persisting into the weekend.

A series of overlapping, long-period south swells will begin to fill in this afternoon, keeping surf along south facing shores near to just below average in the short term. A second set of southerly swells will fill in late Wednesday and could bring above average surf Thursday into Friday. Surf should remain elevated through the weekend.

A new small medium-period northwest swell will arrive later today and peak Wednesday. Then, on Wednesday night, a new short-period northwest swell, associated with the developing low described above, is expected to build in. This swell will likely peak near to just below advisory levels Thursday into Friday. Model guidance tends to under-forecast swell heights with sources developing at a close proximity. Therefore, there is a potential for surf to reach High Surf Advisory criteria, and we will continue to monitor all available guidance.

West facing shores will see a bump in surf through the week due to the overlapping northwest and south swells wrapping into some exposed areas. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below normal levels through the weekend.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for all Hawaii islands-

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Hanalei Bay
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Tue -- 12:49 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:31 AM HST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM HST     0.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:19 PM HST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:31 PM HST     1.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hanalei Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

Hanamaulu Bay
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Tue -- 12:48 AM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:57 AM HST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM HST     0.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:45 PM HST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM HST     1.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hanamaulu Bay, Kauai Island, Hawaii, Tide feet

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