Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key West, FL

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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 052105 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 405 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

DISCUSSION. Water vapor imagery shows a persistent an upper level long wave trough is slowly departing the region. Upstream of this a rather flat and elongated upper level ridge that stretches east to west from the Gulf of Mexico to Baja California. Riding over top of this ridge is the subtropical jet which is moving generally west to east from the West Coast, over the Gulf states, and into the Atlantic. This is evident with the passing cirrus in the skies above the Florida Keys today.

At the surface, a large surface high pressure centered over Georgia and extending from the Great Lakes region to the central Gulf of Mexico, is shifting eastward. This is why our winds have shifted from the northeast and kept our temperatures slightly cooler during the day today and warmer overnight as compared to yesterday. Visible satellite shows the aforementioned cirrus overhead with some patches of strato-cu mainly over the waters west and southwest of the Lower Keys. Key West radar is free of any appreciable precipitation, though a small patch of drizzle or a very light shower persists over the Florida Straits. Otherwise, temperatures didn't fluctuate all that much from this morning. The Lower and Middle Keys are in the lower to mid 70s, while the Upper Keys are in the upper 60s to near 70. Winds are light from the northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight through Saturday, high pressure over the SE US will move offshore and over the western Atlantic. Behind this surface high, a weak low will transit from Oklahoma southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico and weaken. Aside from occasional weak night surges, the combination of the departing high and incoming weak low will allow for winds to diminish into the early part of the weekend. As this low approaches the Sunshine State, it will bring some moisture with, including the Keys, however it will have become disjointed from any upper level support by this point. As such, could not rule out some isolated showers but given the weak forcing and only a meager increase, could not justify any more than just slight chances (10 percent).

Saturday night, surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will move off the New England coast and expand equatorward. This will increase the pressure gradient over the Florida Keys and lead to a freshening of breezes through at least Monday night. By Tuesday the high will move well offshore in response to a low pressure system exiting the Central Plains and moving into the Great Lakes region. At the mid levels the winds will turn more to the southeast allowing from additional moisture to move in with a slightly better chance at showers, albeit only 20 percent. In addition, the "vacuum" left in the wake of the high, will put us in a col-like regime and winds will slacken. Uncertainty remains high regarding the next potential front. Ensemble models and operational models are not in agreement for whether or not this front will actually make it this far south. Given that both sets of ensembles along with the operational ECMWF hold the front to our north, we have held back on PoPs and wind strength. Both GFS and ECMWF agree of a reinforcing high pressure quickly building across the Lower Mississippi Valley by mid week next week. This in turn would once again tighten the gradient with winds increasing but not to the strength at which previous models were indicating with just the front alone.

MARINE. Gentle northeast breezes tonight will diminish to light to gentle breezes for all waters by Friday night. This will continue through Saturday until high pressure moves off the New England coast and build equatorward towards the Bahamas. This will result in a freshening of breezes from the east. High pressure pushes off to the east Tuesday with winds diminishing. Still a lot of uncertainty with the next front on Wednesday. Regardless winds will freshen once again Wednesday.

AVIATION. A very tranquil weather pattern will result in high-confidence VFR conditions prevailing at both island terminals throughout the rest of this afternoon and evening. Near-surface winds will remain light from the northeast at 6 to 8 knots.

CLIMATE. In 2012, the daily record rainfall of 0.49" was recorded at Key West.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . LIW Aviation/Nowcasts . Chesser Data Collection . Haner

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
42095	13 mi	171 min			78°F	2 ft
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL	15 mi	31 min	ENE 11 G 14	70°F			1019.4 hPa	61°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL	17 mi	57 min	E 2.9 G 7	67°F	78°F		1021.1 hPa
PLSF1 - Pulaski Shoal Light, FL	35 mi	66 min	E 11 G 12	71°F			1020.8 hPa (+0.0)
GKYF1	40 mi	171 min		70°F

Wind History for Key West, FL

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E3

E3

E3

E3

E3

E3

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E3

E6 G10

E7 G10

E8 G12

E4 G12

NE8 G11

NE6 G11

NE6 G10

N7 G10

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NE5 G8

NE5 G8

E3

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1 day ago

E2

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NW2

NW9

W13 G16

NW11 G14

W14 G17

NW13 G16

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NW8 G12

N11 G14

NW10 G14

NW8 G15

NW8

NW8 G12

NW11 G14

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NW8 G11

N7 G10

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NW7 G10

NW9 G12

NE4

2 days ago

NE7 G12

NE7 G10

NE6 G12

E7 G11

NE6 G11

E6 G12

NE9 G13

E9 G13

E4 G10

NE5 G8

E5 G9

NE5 G8

NE3

NE4

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E2

NE2

NE4

SE2

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Key West International Airport, FL	20 mi	58 min	E 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	68°F	57°F	70%	1021 hPa
Key West Naval Air Station, FL	23 mi	58 min	E 8	10.00 mi	Fair	69°F	57°F	68%	1020.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEYW

Wind History from EYW (wind in knots)

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E3

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E6

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E9

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1 day ago

Calm

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NW6

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NW12

NW14 G19

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N6

NE5

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Calm

Calm

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NE3

Calm

Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for Sand Key Lighthouse, Sand Key Channel, Florida (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Channel, Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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