Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key West, FL

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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 011857 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 257 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

DISCUSSION. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developed just north of the Lower Keys and north of the reef out through Dry Tortugas, notably a bit north than CAMs guidance had suggested. Thus sufficient moisture and instability was present for mesoscale, northward-directed cloud line genesis along with a brief waterspout. Light southeast winds have spread throughout the Keys with a stationary front to the northwest. Temperatures have reached the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints a not-so-pleasant upper 70s pushing heat indices in the 100-105 range.

The overall synoptic situation remains complex into the weekend with high pressure retreating over the western Atlantic, a meandering frontal zone near and northwest of the Keys with continental high pressure building into the southeast, and falling pressures to our southwest as a tropical wave slowly moves west- northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless of any tropical cyclone development well to our southwest, general southeast flow, whether reaching the surface or running over periodic theta-e minimums produced by occasional clusters and large bands of showers and thunderstorms, will promote likely to perhaps categorical rain chances late tonight through at least Saturday night. While some episodes of street and poor drainage flooding, compounded by the higher-than-normal tides, most overall rainfall totals forecast through the weekend will be the sum of these periodic events. Some of the notible rain episodes may be produced by confluent east- southeast flow as the Atlantic ridge shifts north and east Friday, then a lower tropospheric undulation passing through Saturday.

An interesting complication is guidance indicating the possibility of dry air working in from the east later Sunday, which could decrease rain chances down into lower chance over portions of the upper and maybe the the middle Keys.

Monday onward, as lower pressure shifts further west of the Yucatan Peninsula, ridging to our north should dominate the lower tropospheric flow with a tropical wave passing near or to the south the middle of next week. Due to some trending further south with the next wave feature, rain chances were kept in the chance category with east to southeast winds continuing.

MARINE. After a period of light southeast winds late this afternoon, light to gentle northeast to east breezes are expected to set in this evening. High pressure building into the southeast states early this weekend in combination with a stationary front just to the north, and lowering pressures near the Yucatan will freshen breezes Friday night and Saturday. Small Crat Advisories may be required for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters at least early in the weekend, with the potential for the strongest winds and higher seas toward the westernmost portions of the Straits and southeast open Gulf waters.

AVIATION. VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through 03z. A ragged cloud line has formed near the Lower Keys. Although light low-level southerly flow has tended to push the activity north of the terminals, some southward redevelopment may occur. Have retained mention of VCSH/VCTS in the TAFs through this evening. Overnight, more widespread showers and t'storms are expected over the island chain. Have included SHRA for now after 03z and future amendments/TEMPOs will need to be inserted for more specific details.

CLIMATE. In 1920, the daily record cold high temperature of 77F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

Of note, in 1890, congress and President Benjamin Harrison passed an act creating the Weather Bureau, the predecessor of the National Weather Service.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 77 86 77 86 / 70 80 70 70 Marathon 77 87 78 87 / 70 70 70 70

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . JR Aviation/Nowcasts . BT Data Acquisition . SDR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
42095	13 mi	64 min		85°F	87°F	2 ft
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL	15 mi	34 min	ESE 7 G 8.9	84°F			1012.6 hPa (-1.8)	74°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL	17 mi	46 min		91°F	87°F		1012.5 hPa
GKYF1	40 mi	94 min		85°F

Wind History for Key West, FL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Key West International Airport, FL	20 mi	41 min	SE 7	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	88°F	75°F	68%	1012.3 hPa
Key West Naval Air Station, FL	23 mi	41 min	ESE 7	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	91°F	77°F	64%	1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEYW

Wind History from EYW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sand Key Lighthouse, Sand Key Channel, Florida (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Channel, Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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