Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cudjoe Key, FL

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Weather conditions look a lot friendlier compared to 24 hours ago! Throughout this morning and early afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms have been tracking northwestward across our local waters, and have occasionally crossed the island chain. Automated observations along our island communities have reported rainfall amounts up to 0.12", but radar estimated rainfall totals suggest some locations in the Upper Keys, where the heaviest showers have occurred, have seen near half of an inch of rain along with wind gusts near 20 mph. The lack of activity compared to yesterday likely stems from reduced moisture across the area. Our 12Z sounding calculated a PWAT value of 1.97" which is just below the 75th percentile value of 1.99", but CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT suggests that this value isn't entirely representative of the air mass aloft. Values from CIMSS across the area range from approximately 1.5" to 2.0".

This trend of spotty shower and thunderstorm development will continue through today, and an increase in areal coverage isn't expected as the atmosphere becomes worked over. The inherited forecast advertises 30 percent PoPs, and we will go ahead and keep them due to radar trends showing development heading toward the island chain. This activity won't lead to a washout necessarily, and anyone running into these showers may only have to wait 15 to 30 minutes for them to pass. No changes will be made to the current forecast package.

MARINE
Issued at 1113 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 A strong area of high pressure will build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely need to be posted for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters beginning as early as this evening, possibly lasting through Friday.

As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend through early next week, east to southeast breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.