Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cudjoe Key, FL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:18PM Friday July 19, 2019 7:45 PM EDT (23:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:26PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ032 Bayside And Gulf Side From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge- Gulf Of Mexico From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To 5 Fathoms- 430 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Tonight..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms developing.
Saturday..East winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East to southeast winds near 5 knots. Seas less than 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..Southeast winds near 5 knots. Seas less than 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..South winds near 5 knots. Seas less than 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cudjoe Key, FL
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location: 24.64, -81.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 191911
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
311 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Discussion In the middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), latest
available satellite imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 200 pm, depicts the center of expansive deep and
warm ridging positioned over the mid-mississippi valley. Well
southeast of that feature, a weak middle and upper trough like
feature is in place and extends from near 27n 70w southwest to
over southern florida and the florida keys and into the gulf of
mexico.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels (surface to 700
mb), latest available marine and land surface observations and
analysis as of 200 pm, detail the near 1020 mb western extent of
1020-1025 mb surface ridging centered over the central tropical
atlantic. Across the tropics, the next inverted trough weak
tropical wave was analyzed around 24n 65w. Latest cimms saharan
air layer analysis indicated greater concentrations of drier air
exists upstream of this feature out to 30w.

Currently As of 200 pm, skies are mostly sunny across the
florida keys island chain and all surrounding waters. Radar only
detects a few small showers moving across the upper and middle
florida keys attm, with small isolated showers dotting all waters
surrounding the islands. Temperatures across the islands have
reached to around 90 degrees with dewpoints in the upper 70s.

C-man stations are recording east southeast winds at 5 to 10
knots and sensors over the islands recording 5 to 10 mph.

Short term Tonight thru Sunday night, models have been
consistent with indications that the combination of upper
troughing in tandem with an increase in surface to 700 mb moisture
will allow for better chances for showers and thunderstorms
beginning tomorrow night. The 12z GFS more clearly delineates a
developing yet faint 1000-850 inverted trough axis moving across
keys waters tomorrow night and then to the west during Sunday.

Challenges still exist to the exact timing of the development of
this feature as there is not much from satellite imagery to hang
our hats on upstream attm. As for tonight, increasing moisture and
a slight uptick in winds should allow near climatology pops, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing again
similar to last night, and continuing until Saturday morning.

Forecast soundings indicate southeast to south winds in the
afternoon from off the surface up to 500 mb, which could allow for
cuban land shadowing which will erode pops by later in the
morning.

Then by Saturday evening, the increasing moisture arrives
with slightly better upper forcing ahead of the inverted trough
axis. The axis will move slowly westward during Sunday and Sunday
evening. Very deep moisture with pwat in excess of 2.00 inches and
ample moisture should allow for high chances for rain for these
two periods. Have inherited this from the last shift. Winds in
association with this trough axis should remain gentle to moderate
with moderate on the straits at best, except gusty in and near
showers and storms. Daytime highs and lows Saturday night and
Sunday will be only a few degrees lower at best due to more
extensive cloud cover, but dewpoints will remain typically
oppressive. During Sunday evening, ample slow moving boundaries
combined with deeper moisture and upper support will continue to
support higher chances for showers and storms.

Long term Monday through Friday, on Monday, drier air will move
in behind the departing trough, with less favorable surface to 500
mb winds. As such, just isolated chances for showers and storms
are in place. But then for Monday night thru Wed night, the
surface pressure patter become weak as broad surface ridging
settles near the keys. Given ample low to middle level moisture,
pwat between 1.75 and 2.00 inches from the available model forecast
soundings, looks as if mesoscale forcing will be better optimized
but the degree of strong seems unclear. As such, will keep
normal, near 30 percent chances for showers with isolated storms
in the grids.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, indications that the
leading edge of the sal airmass now out approaching the eastern
caribbean, may reach south florida and the florida keys. At this
point will still maintain a slight chance for showers and storms
for those periods.

Marine Winds should once again increase a bit this evening and
overnight, reaching 15 knots in the straits, with 10 to 15 knots
elsewhere. This may be a bit conservative ATTM as more detail have
yet to unfold regarding the evolution of this inverted trough, as
mentioned above. At this time no scec or SCA conditions are
advertised but please continue to monitor the marine forecast for
this weekend as development of this trough could result in more
elevated winds. As always, winds and seas will be higher in and
near showers and storms. Excellent boating conditions return next
week with smooth sea conditions.

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail at both the key west and marathon
terminals for this evening and tonight. Near-surface winds will be
from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Expect few to sct cloud bases
around fl025 throughout the overnight period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 83 91 80 89 20 20 40 50
marathon 83 93 80 91 30 30 40 50

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Futterman
aviation nowcasts... .Bt
upper air data collection... ... Dr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 18 mi51 min 91°F 90°F1016.8 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 20 mi15 min ENE 8.9 G 12 85°F 1016.9 hPa77°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 20 mi45 min 87°F 90°F1017 hPa (-0.3)
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 25 mi15 min E 11 G 13 85°F 1015.6 hPa77°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 36 mi15 min 86°F 1016.3 hPa78°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 42 mi105 min 89°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 42 mi165 min 92°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 43 mi105 min 88°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 43 mi105 min 90°F
BKYF1 48 mi105 min 94°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 49 mi105 min E 5.1 91°F

Wind History for Key West, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL12 mi1.9 hrsE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F75°F63%1016.5 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL16 mi52 minE 810.00 miA Few Clouds88°F73°F63%1016.5 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL24 mi52 minENE 710.00 miFair89°F73°F61%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E8E9E10E11E11E9E8NE5E12E9E9E11SE9E10SE10SE10E11E9SE6SE7E8E6E9
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G15
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2 days agoE10E8E11E10E10E10E11E11SE9E11E10E10E11SE11E10E11E11E11E10SE9SE10SE10E10SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Gopher Key, Cudjoe Bay, Florida
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Gopher Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:34 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:06 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.110.80.60.50.40.40.60.91.31.61.71.71.51.20.90.50.20-00.10.40.71

Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current
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No Name Key (northeast of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 AM EDT     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:34 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:31 PM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.4-0.1-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.4-00.30.50.50.50.2-0.2-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.