Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cudjoe Key, FL

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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 160301 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1001 PM EST Fri Jan 15 2021

DISCUSSION. The deep and broad belt of westerlies persist across the Gulf of Mexico, south of a large storm system lumbering to the east through the Ohio River Valley. A cold front continues to press southeast through the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Northwest winds average 20 to 25 knots behind the front, accentuated by Buoy 42003 which gusted in the low 30s for several hours. Locally, breezes have finally shifted to the west of south, although most locations are 10 knots or less. Prefrontal convection continues to struggle to the west and southwest of the Lower Keys, with tops limited to around 20 kft. Temperatures are in the lower 70s and dewpoints are in the upper 60s. The dewpoint on top of our building is 70--every degree matters for ML CAPE.

The forecast calls for slight rain chances (20%) overnight. The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled a thin inversion near 9 kft, but given the tops of the showers right now, there appears to be no problems getting past this inhibiting layer. The profile is not that dry, and lapse rates steepen above 20 kft. We would not be surprised if an overachieving collision was able to produce a brief thunderstorm. Given the upstream observations and similar water temperatures to the north of the island chain, the statistical guidance, and the ensemble mean predictions, northwest winds should increase to near 20 knots for a few hours behind the frontal passage. The initial wind shift should be between 07-09Z. Other than the addition of a brief Small Craft Advisory, no other changes needed.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory likely will be required tonight due to northwest winds a little stronger than expected. From synopsis, a cold front will push through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys tonight. Fresh northwest breezes will prevail behind the front on Saturday, then become north and diminish Saturday night. High pressure will move slowly east along the northern Gulf Coast Sunday through Monday, with gentle north to northeast breezes prevailing across the Keys. This high will push eastwards into the Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday resulting in strengthening northeast to east breezes.

AVIATION. MVFR CIGS are likely around 09Z as the cold front presses through the EYW and MTH terminals. Also, EYW can expect some VIS reduction in the next hour or two as showers move through. Behind the front, northwest winds will gust to 20 to 22 knots. There appears to be some disagreement to when the gusts will end on Saturday, and may persist well into the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 64 69 60 69 / 20 - 0 - Marathon 64 70 59 68 / 20 - 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . CLR Aviation/Nowcasts . CLR Data Acquisition . DR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL	18 mi	54 min	NW 9.9 G 14	70°F	69°F		1014.1 hPa
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL	20 mi	54 min	W 12 G 14	71°F	70°F		1013.1 hPa
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL	25 mi	32 min	WNW 13 G 16	70°F			1014.2 hPa	66°F
42095	30 mi	42 min		71°F	74°F	3 ft
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL	42 mi	72 min			70°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL	42 mi	132 min			69°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL	43 mi	72 min			68°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL	43 mi	72 min			69°F
BKYF1	48 mi	72 min			71°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL	49 mi	72 min	S 9.9		70°F

Wind History for Key West, FL

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3 AM

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N5

NE3 G7

NE4

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N8 G11

NE5 G9

NE7 G12

N7 G10

NE4 G7

SE1

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SE6 G9

SE4 G7

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SE4 G7

S6 G9

S3 G7

SW3

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W13 G16

NW9 G14

1 day ago

N6 G9

NE5

NE5 G8

NE7 G11

N7

NE7 G11

N5 G8

NE8 G13

NE6 G15

NE7 G14

NE10 G13

NE7 G12

N10 G14

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N6 G11

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N6 G9

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N6

2 days ago

NE7 G13

N10 G15

NE8 G13

NE7 G13

NE8 G12

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N11 G15

N10 G14

N13 G16

N10 G13

N12

N15

N16 G21

N14 G18

N14 G19

NE7 G12

N17

NE7 G12

N8 G11

NE5 G10

NE6 G10

NE7 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL	12 mi	19 min	NW 10	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	69°F	67°F	93%	1013.7 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL	16 mi	19 min	NW 10	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	69°F	66°F	90%	1014 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL	24 mi	19 min	WNW 10	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	68°F	65°F	90%	1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNQX

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)

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NE4

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E5

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NW11 G23

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1 day ago

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NE11

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N11 G18

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N17

N14

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N13 G21

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NE10

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Tide / Current Tables for Gopher Key, Cudjoe Bay, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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Gulf Stream Current

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