Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cudjoe Key, FL

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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 242000 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 300 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

DISCUSSION. Water vapor imagery highlights a closed cyclone working eastward across the Ohio River Valley, northeast of broad cyclonic curvature spreading east into the Bay of Campeche. A surface low near the closed cyclone is well to the north of a trailing cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal system over the Gulf is nearly parallel to the mean-layer flow, owing to its very slow progress to the southeast. Surface observations place a col-region to our northwest, with gentle breezes across the island chain. A tenacious, and surprisingly effective round of warm air advection and isentropic ascent has maintained scattered drizzly showers across the island chain. The most recent KBYX scans reveal decreased coverage, in line with the portrayals by isentropic charts. Temperatures across the island chain are in the 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Skies range from cloudy in the Lower Keys to mostly sunny in Key Largo.

FORECAST. The col-region will spread southeast across the Keys and South Florida this evening. Light northerly breezes, in conjunction with a cool and relatively moist air mass will spill south from the Mainland. We have retained the patchy fog mention for the island chain, although the most likely locations will be Bayside of the Middle and Upper Keys. The frontal system across the Gulf will finally reach the Keys Saturday, in tandem with the mid-level steering changes associated with the southern stream short wave racing east across the southern Gulf. Freshening north to northeast breezes are expected Saturday afternoon, although mainly for the northwestern half of the CWA. Breezes will diminish quickly on Sunday owing to the highly progressive pattern. A second southern stream dip in the jet stream will spread east across the Gulf Sunday night and Monday, deamplifying as it nears Florida. A surface low will move in tandem with the mid-upper level forcing, and will reach the Keys Monday afternoon or Monday evening, a little slower than what we expected yesterday at this time. Freshening southwesterly breezes, a short-lived episode of cyclonic curvature, weak instability, and adequate low level moisture, should allow for 50% rain and thunder chances on Monday. The progressive pattern continues Monday night through Tuesday night. A third undulation in the jet stream may support a second, eastward moving low pressure system Wednesday, although forecast confidence is low Wednesday and beyond. Our extended forecast features a return to climo PoPs, although given the possible model solutions, a couple periods of unsettled weather are possible Wednesday and then again on day seven. Through the seven day forecast, highs and lows will be around normal, mid 70s and upper 60s, respectively.

MARINE. No current watches, warnings, or advisories. From synopsis, a weak pressure pattern will prevail across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys tonight as a decaying cold front limps southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary is expected to pass through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys later Saturday. An area of low pressure will move eastward through the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Sunday night, then move through the Florida Keys Monday.

AVIATION. Radar continues to show stubbornly persistent light to moderate showers near and south of both the EYW and MTH terminals. These showers are coming with localized MVFR conditions, with cigs below 020 and vsbys less than 6SM. Radar shows no decreasing coverage trend yet, but mesoscale guidance shows weak subsidence this evening which should decrease coverage until late tonight.

Then a weak cold front will limp past the terminals on Saturday morning. It will be preceded by a turn to light north winds late tonight off the recently cooled Gulfside waters. It is conceivable that some sea fog could develop and drift near the terminals late tonight, but the TAFs for now will indicate MVFR cigs between 010 and 020. A few disorganized showers could then accompany or closely follow the front on Sat morning. A drier air mass will then trickle in on Sat afternoon and clear out skies. A northerly cross wind will develop following frontal passage, but it should remain 10 kt or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 68 75 64 72 / 10 10 - 0 Marathon 67 76 63 73 / 10 10 - -

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . CLR Aviation/Nowcasts . Haner Data Collection . NB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL	18 mi	50 min	SE 1.9 G 1.9		74°F		1017.1 hPa
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL	20 mi	20 min	SSW 9.9 G 12	71°F				66°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL	20 mi	50 min	WSW 1.9 G 5.1	69°F	68°F		1017.3 hPa
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL	25 mi	20 min	ESE 5.1 G 6	72°F				67°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL	42 mi	80 min			65°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL	42 mi	140 min			66°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL	43 mi	80 min			67°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL	43 mi	80 min			65°F
BKYF1	48 mi	80 min			71°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL	49 mi	80 min	WSW 2.9		68°F

Wind History for Key West, FL

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N4

NE3 G6

NE3

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NE6 G9

NE6 G9

E4 G7

NE5 G8

NE4 G8

NE5 G9

NE5 G8

NE4

NE7 G14

NE6 G10

NE4 G8

S2 G6

SW3 G8

NW4

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1 day ago

N9

N6 G14

NE9 G16

NE6 G11

NE7 G11

NE6

NE3 G6

E2

N4

NE4 G7

NE3

NE3 G6

NE3

NE6 G9

N7

N8

N6 G9

N6

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N9 G12

N5 G9

NE5

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NE4

2 days ago

N26 G32

N24 G32

N26

N25 G31

N23

N21 G28

N21 G29

N20 G26

N22

N21 G30

N21 G28

N23 G29

N19 G26

N16 G23

N18 G23

N20

N19

NW15 G20

NW18

N16 G22

N17 G21

N18 G24

N18 G23

N15 G19

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL	12 mi	27 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	74°F	64°F	74%	1017 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL	16 mi	27 min	SE 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	72°F	66°F	82%	1017.3 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL	24 mi	27 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	69°F	64°F	87%	1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNQX

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)

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N4

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Calm

SW12

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Calm

1 day ago

N15

N11

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2 days ago

N27 G32

N25 G30

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N24 G28

N17

N22 G28

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N24 G31

N21 G28

N20 G27

N19

N17 G26

N15 G23

N17 G24

N15

N16

NW13

N15

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N14

N16 G22

N19

N17

N13

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Tide / Current Tables for Gopher Key, Cudjoe Bay, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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