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GMZ053 Expires:202312030330;;789561 Fzus52 Kkey 022129 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 429 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz052>055-072>075-030330- straits of florida from ocean reef to craig key out 20 nm- straits of florida from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out 20 nm- straits of florida from west end of seven mile bridge to south of halfmoon shoal out 20 nm- straits of florida from halfmoon shoal to 20 nm west of dry tortugas out 20 nm- straits of florida from ocean reef to craig key 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from west end of seven mile bridge to south of halfmoon shoal 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from halfmoon shoal to 20 nm west of dry tortugas 20 to 60 nm out- 429 pm est Sat dec 2 2023
Tonight..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable and decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Isolated showers.
Monday..Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming northwest to north and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas building to 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers.
Monday night..North winds near 10 knots, becoming north to northeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest to north and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 429 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..High pressure centered to the northeast of bermuda will collapse over the next couple of days. Gentle southeast breezes are expected tonight, veering to the southeast to south Sunday morning. Breezes will become light and variable for Sunday night and early Monday, as a weak frontal system approaches the florida keys coastal waters. As the front pushes through, winds will shift to the northeast to east and freshen, becoming gentle to moderate for Monday afternoon and night. A second, stronger cold front is expected to push through the coastal waters late Tuesday or early Wednesday, with fresh northerly breezes expected in its wake through Thursday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 02...
58 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 28 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 21 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 20 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 15 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 9 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 5 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 4 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 021944 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 244 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 Synoptic ridging continues to dominate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys on this early December day. Despite some of the lowest solar elevation angles of the year, ample shortwave radiation has allowed temperatures to reach the mid 80s at most island communities. In fact, Marathon tied a record high for the date of 86F, and there is still time to break this record.
Combined with dew points in the mid 70s, heat indices are well into the 90s, resembling typical October rather than December.

The aforementioned ridge will continue to dictate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys this weekend. A passing nocturnal shower cannot be ruled out, given a veered low-level profile and moist boundary layer. However, in terms of measurable rainfall, coverage is expected to be slight at best (around 10%). Temperatures will flirt with record territory once again tomorrow. A frontal boundary associated with a shortwave trough currently based in the Texas Panhandle will pivot eastward, passing through the island chain on Monday. This will nudge temperatures and dew points down a few ticks (closer to normal).

Ensemble global numerical weather prediction guidance is slowly coming into better agreement regarding the evolution of a developing coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic for Tuesday into Wednesday. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the location of cyclogenesis as well as the rate of intensification, most model output suggests a stronger solution, with the low forming a bit earlier and closer to the coastline. The cold front associated with this coastal system is expected to push through the Florida Keys late Tuesday night or early Wednesday from northwest to southeast. Limited upper-level support is expected, and the front should push through generally dry. Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected in the wake of the passage for Wednesday and Thursday. Given the convergence toward a somewhat stronger coastal low solution, have nudged highs and lows down a few ticks this iteration, well below normal for this time of year.

High pressure over the Southeast will then slowly pivot offshore late into the week and into the weekend. Expect winds to clock back around to the east for this timeframe, resulting in moderating temperatures towards near-normal.

MARINE
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to slide eastward across the west-central North Atlantic over the next several days. Gentle southeast breezes are expected tonight, veering to the southeast to south Sunday morning. Breezes will become light and variable for Sunday night and early Monday, as a weak frontal system approaches the Florida Keys coastal waters. As the front pushes through, winds will shift to the northeast to east and freshen, becoming gentle to moderate for Monday afternoon and night. A second, stronger cold front is expected to push through the coastal waters late Tuesday or early Wednesday, with fresh northerly breezes expected in its wake through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters as early as late Tuesday night.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period, with generally dry conditions expected along the island chain. Surface winds are expected to remain southeast through the remainder of the afternoon becoming east to southeast this evening and then southeast to south for Sunday morning remaining between 6 and 11 knots.

CLIMATE
On this day in 2018, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is also the warmest low temperature record in December. Additionally, the average daily temperature on this day was 83.0F, making it the warmest meteorological winter day on record. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 84 77 83 73 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 86 76 85 73 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Boot Key Harbor
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Sat -- 06:41 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:26 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:33 PM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:49 PM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boot Key Harbor, Vaca Key, Florida, Tide feet

Moser Channel (swingbridge)
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Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:26 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:57 AM EST     1.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:34 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:30 PM EST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current, knots

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Key West, FL,