Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:58 PM   Moonset 2:39 AM

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GMZ053 Expires:202405190300;;442439 Fzus52 Kkey 182022 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 422 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
wave detail will include details about the period and direction of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming from a different direction than the wind would be included in the wave detail.
gmz052>055-072>075-190300- straits of florida from ocean reef to craig key out 20 nm- straits of florida from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out 20 nm- straits of florida from west end of seven mile bridge to south of halfmoon shoal out 20 nm- straits of florida from halfmoon shoal to 20 nm west of dry tortugas out 20 nm- straits of florida from ocean reef to craig key 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from west end of seven mile bridge to south of halfmoon shoal 20 to 60 nm out- straits of florida from halfmoon shoal to 20 nm west of dry tortugas 20 to 60 nm out- 422 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
Tonight - Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Isolated showers. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Isolated showers. Sunday night - Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Wave detail: east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday - Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - East winds near 5 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 422 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - The western extent of a low-level ridge axis extends west-northwest through the bahamas and across the keys. Southeast breezes will tend to peak and lull overnight through Sunday as the heating and cooling of south florida and cuba modulate the local wind forecast. There may be a break in the rain-free conditions Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 181903 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 303 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted mean- layer ridge centered over the Western Caribbean and the Bahamas. The next in an endless series of mid to upper-level lows is near the mouth of the Mississippi. A slightly squashed surface high stretches west- northwest through the Bahamas into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s and dewpoints are touching 80. Heat indices range from 105 to 110 and are above normal for May.

FORECAST
The oppressive heat will continue into Sunday with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices climbing above 100. A pattern change is expected Sunday night and Monday as the upper low near the Mississippi pivots east and southeast around the mean layer ridge. Low-level flow will become more confluent as the heights fall aloft. A weak surface trough will fuse with the thermal trough on Monday, so SFC fields will be sloppy.
Nevertheless, the MOS POP guidance suggests badly needed rain is on the horizon Sunday night through Tuesday. Once again, there is a large disparity in the rain chances and we continue to advertise a wetter solution (30/40%). Forecast soundings suggest very fat CAPE profiles above -10 degC and healthy storm relative wind. If low-level moisture convergence is as advertised by the Euro, thunderstorms with hail are not out of the question. By Tuesday night or Wednesday, the Keys will be on the western flank of the upper- level low including strong subsidence and very dry mid level air. The criminally high dewpoints should return to the lower 70s mid week. However, it will be hard to discount mesoscale rain chances along island cloud lines, off the Mainland, and within the developing east to southeast steering. We trend the forecast for Wednesday and beyond to near normal with slight rain chances (20%) and high/low temperatures near 90/lower 80s.

MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The western extent of a low- level ridge axis extends west- northwest through the Bahamas and across the Keys. Southeast breezes will tend to peak and lull overnight through Sunday as the heating and cooling of South Florida and Cuba modulate the local wind forecast. There may be a break in the rain-free conditions Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the evening and overnight hours at EYW and MTH. Latest hi-res model guidance continues to show the risk for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly well north of the Island Chain overnight through Sunday morning. Right now, this activity looks to remain north and doesn't pose a threat to the terminals, though, we will continue to monitor. Therefore, VCSH was also left out of the TAFs with the afternoon update.
Surface winds will oscillate between south southeast and east southeast over the course of the afternoon through the overnight hours, remaining between 6 to 12 knots. However, towards daybreak Sunday winds will begin to shift to more of the south to southwest.

CLIMATE
Interesting climate tidbit so far for the month of May. Key West has hit 90 degrees so far 7 times this month with one more time expected Sunday. However, without even counting today and Sunday, the last 7 days have already broken the record for the hottest 7 day average temperature during the month of May. The previous record was 85.0 degrees which was set back in May 2017. Currently, the average of the last 7 days is 86.3 degrees which is an astounding 1.3 degrees above the previous record, thereby shattering it!

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 82 93 79 88 / 10 10 30 30 Marathon 83 91 80 88 / 10 10 40 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.

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Boot Key Harbor
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Sat -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:21 AM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:52 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boot Key Harbor, Vaca Key, Florida, Tide feet

Moser Channel (swingbridge)
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Sat -- 12:24 AM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:39 PM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 PM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current, knots

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