Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Pine Key, FL

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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 121914 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 314 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

DISCUSSION. Mean layer ridging is centered to the east of Bermuda and also over northern Mexico. A weakness in the ridging stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the southern Bahamas, somewhat apparent on water vapor imagery as weak cyclonic turning. 12-hr loops from MIMIC TPW highlight a low level ridge axis stretching west to near southern Florida. A moisture surge in the easterlies is sliding west through Andros along the south-side of the ridge. East to southeast winds average 8 to 12 knots across the Florida Keys, under mostly sunny skies, with temperatures in the lower 90s. The KBYX radar has been mostly quiet for much of the day, although coverage has increased in the past hour or so as the moisture surge approaches.

FORECAST. When its summer in the Florida Keys, and a ridge axis stretches west across Florida, we look for upstream undulations in moisture and curvature along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge. MIMIC TPW loops, satellite derived motion vectors, visible/IR satellite imagery, and water vapor satellite are our favorite tools this time of year to assess slight upticks in rain and thunder chances which would be outside the norm (30%). We note two moisture slugs upstream of the Florida Keys, one just to the southwest of Andros, the other pushing into Puerto Rico. Between these two, a noted dry slot is moving through Hispaniola. The Andros slug will push through the Keys ahead of the nocturnally favored maximum (09Z) in precipitation coverage during east- southeast flow. We agree with 50% chances for the overnight period, but we may get most of it before midnight. The dry slot near Hispaniola may push through Friday, although there are indications that it will be modified by the time it reaches the Keys. Therefore, we have retained the 30% rain chances through at least Friday night.

The western flank of the subtropical ridge will erode by Saturday, allowing breezes to diminish and forcing rain chances to rely on mesoscale mechanisms such as island cloud lines and mainland convection. This weak steering will last through Monday. Thereafter, southeast to south steering will shift our focus towards Cuba and its afternoon convection, preceded by its lee- side inhibition and the Cuban shadow. A southerly steering pattern typically means there are lower heights across the Gulf of Mexico. These setups tend to snarf moisture out of the Caribbean. For now, our extended forecast highlights near normal rain chances.

MARINE. A western Atlantic ridge axis will extend across the Florida Peninsula this evening through Friday, resulting in freshening easterly breezes across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The ridge axis will drop down the Sunshine State this weekend, resulting in light to gentle breezes.

AVIATION. A moisture surge in the easterlies will introduce rain chance for both terminals this evening. Prepare for brief periods of MVFR CIGS, IFR VIS, and convective wind gusts near 25 knots as scattered showers and thunderstorms spread to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 knots through the terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 82 91 83 92 / 50 40 30 30 Marathon 82 93 83 94 / 50 40 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . CLR Aviation/Nowcasts . CLR Data Acquisition . NB

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL	16 mi	47 min	ESE 6 G 11	86°F	91°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL	17 mi	25 min	E 11 G 14	85°F				78°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL	24 mi	47 min	ESE 6 G 9.9	88°F	90°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL	30 mi	25 min	E 12 G 15	85°F			1014.3 hPa	76°F
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL	31 mi	25 min	E 12 G 14	84°F			1015.1 hPa	76°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL	35 mi	95 min			92°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL	36 mi	155 min			89°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL	36 mi	95 min			91°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL	37 mi	95 min			90°F
42095	37 mi	35 min		85°F	86°F	2 ft
BKYF1	41 mi	95 min			92°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL	43 mi	95 min	ENE 6		92°F
WWEF1	43 mi	155 min			90°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL	44 mi	95 min			92°F
CWAF1	44 mi	155 min			90°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL	44 mi	95 min			91°F
SREF1	46 mi	95 min			89°F
LRIF1	47 mi	95 min			91°F
TBYF1	47 mi	95 min			93°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL	49 mi	95 min			88°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Key West Naval Air Station, FL	18 mi	42 min	ESE 10	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	88°F	77°F	70%	1014.3 hPa
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL	19 mi	42 min	E 7	10.00 mi	Fair	85°F	75°F	75%	1014.4 hPa
Key West International Airport, FL	22 mi	42 min	ESE 9	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	87°F	75°F	70%	1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNQX

Wind History from NQX (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Howe Key, south end, Harbor Channel, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for No Name Key (northeast of), Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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