Duck Key, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Duck Key, FL

June 18, 2024 9:29 AM EDT (13:29 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM
Moonrise 4:20 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ043 Expires:202406181430;;222060 Fzus52 Kkey 180816 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 416 am edt Tue jun 18 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
wave detail will include details about the period and direction of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming from a different direction than the wind would be included in the wave detail.
gmz042>044-181430- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 416 am edt Tue jun 18 2024

.small craft advisory in effect - .

Today - East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 5 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Tonight and Wednesday - East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, except 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Friday - East winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Friday night - East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

Saturday and Saturday night - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 416 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Synopsis - Strong surface high pressure centered off the new england coast working in tandem with falling pressures over the yucatan peninsula and the bay of campeche is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes today through mid week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central florida coastline. This may result in a slackening of breezes.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of june 12 - .
66 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 24 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 17 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 28 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 4 nm south of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 2 nm south of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duck Key, FL
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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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FXUS62 KKEY 180728 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A not so quiet overnight for the Florida Keys as cloud streamers with embedded showers have been moving along in a east-southeast flow. Surprisingly, even though we had no inhibition, there was not enough lift to allow for showers to achieve any lightning.
That being said, not all areas have seen showers and in fact most of the activity has favored the Middle Keys and portions of the Upper Keys. Recent radar trends would suggest that the Lower Keys may see some showers prior to dawn. Strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast continues to work in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. This is maintaining fresh easterly breezes across the island chain and surrounding waters. This is also keeping temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.

FORECAST
The forecast thought process is a little more clear in the short term but remains murky and complicated in the long term. For today, the Keys will be in between features with no mid or upper level support to lend to what we are already seeing develop. As a result, showers will be isolated to scattered, developing in the most healthy cloud streamers. By Wednesday a mid level short wave will pivot southwest from the Atlantic and move across the Florida Peninsula. At the same time, an easterly undulation will be sliding westward. The combination of which will lead to a little bit more lift but with a lack of a surface reflection.
Thursday, a surface reflection of an easterly undulation will pass through the region but by this point the upper level support will have shifted further southwest. As such, rain chances will be held at 40 percent.

Thereafter there is still disagreements with the models as to how features will interact with one another and where they will eventually settle. Models are hinting that the Central American Gyre (CAG) will produce another broad area of disturbed weather northwestward across the Yucatan and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. As is the case currently, we will have to wait to see how this new potential feature plays out. For now, given that it looks like we'll stay in generally easterly flow through the extended period along with ample boundary layer moisture, have opted to keep above normal PoPs.

MARINE
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Small Craft Advisories continue for all of the Florida Keys coastal waters today. Strong surface high pressure centered off the New England coast will continue to work in tandem with falling pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. This is expected to result in moderate to fresh breezes today through mid week. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central Florida coastline. This may result in a slackening of breezes.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. KBYX currently shows showers moving from southeast to northwest, but it is difficult to say if any showers make it onsite to either of the terminals. Will keep VCSH in the TAFs for now, but TEMPOs may have to be added eventually to account for any deteriorating conditions. Skies prevail at FEW at 2k feet, but occasional instances of BKN at approximately 5k feet will transverse both terminals.

CLIMATE
In 1972, during the early morning hours, Tropical Storm Agnes passed northward through the Yucatan channel. The outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Agnes spawned at least three, to as many as six tornadoes in the Florida Keys, including a F2 tornado in Big Coppitt Key, a F2 tornado in Key West, and a F1 tornado in Conch Key. Total damage was estimated at just over $500,000 (1972 USD). About 40 people were injured in Big Coppitt Key, making the Big Coppitt Key tornado the worst in the history of the Florida Keys in terms of total number of injuries.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 89 82 89 81 / 40 30 40 40 Marathon 89 82 89 81 / 30 30 40 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 4 mi50 minE 20G23 83°F 29.8975°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 13 mi72 minE 8G17 83°F 84°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 17 mi50 min 29.88
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 19 mi150 min 80°F
BKYF1 23 mi150 min 80°F


Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMTH THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON INTL,FL 10 sm36 minE 15G2510 smA Few Clouds84°F75°F74%29.91
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMTH
   
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Wind History graph: MTH
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Conch Key, eastern end, Florida
   
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Conch Key
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Tue -- 12:08 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:52 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Conch Key, eastern end, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
0.3
1
am
0.4
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.8
4
am
1.1
5
am
1.3
6
am
1.5
7
am
1.4
8
am
1.3
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.8
11
am
0.5
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0
2
pm
-0
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
0.8
8
pm
0.9
9
pm
0.8
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.5


Tide / Current for Long Key Viaduct, Florida Current
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Long Key Viaduct
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Tue -- 01:27 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Long Key Viaduct, Florida Current, knots
12
am
-0.7
1
am
-0.9
2
am
-0.9
3
am
-0.7
4
am
-0.3
5
am
0.2
6
am
0.4
7
am
0.5
8
am
0.4
9
am
0.2
10
am
-0.2
11
am
-0.6
12
pm
-1
1
pm
-1.2
2
pm
-1.2
3
pm
-0.9
4
pm
-0.4
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
0.9
8
pm
1
9
pm
0.8
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.1


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Key West, FL,




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