Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Layton, FL
July 27, 2024 8:03 AM EDT (12:03 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 6:45 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 11:41 PM Moonset 12:12 PM |
GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 428 Am Edt Sat Jul 27 2024
Today - East to southeast winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast and increasing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight - Southeast winds near 5 knots, becoming east to southeast. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - East winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - Variable winds near 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday - East to southeast winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south. Bay waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night - Southeast to south winds near 5 knots, becoming northeast to east after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday - East to southeast winds near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Wednesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 428 Am Edt Sat Jul 27 2024
Synopsis - Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail through the weekend, and into the first half of next week as the ridging that has been in place will retract eastward. Winds will freshen once again next week as the high builds back over mainland florida Tuesday and Tuesday night, lasting through the middle of the week.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of july 27, 2024 - .
74 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 62 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 61 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 60 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 55 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 21 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 15 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo. 13 nm east of carysfort reef light - .off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of july 27, 2024 - .
74 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 62 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 61 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 60 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 55 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 21 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 15 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo. 13 nm east of carysfort reef light - .off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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FXUS62 KKEY 270838 AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 438 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 KBYX radar has shown isolated shower and thunderstorm activity mainly in two different regions. Those regions are across the offshore Gulf waters and across the Cay Sal Bank just outside the Florida Keys coastal waters. This activity has remained in the same areas for much of the night with the Island Chain remaining virtually dry with the exception of the Upper Keys near Carysfort Reef Light and Ocean Reef where earlier shower activity sent an outflow boundary through resulting in wind gusts to near 20 knots.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with some isolated locations in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s.
The humidity combined with the air temperature is making it feel like it is between 89 to 95 degrees out there.
Deep mean layer ridging remains the dominant feature across the Atlantic, especially in the low to mid levels with a TUTT cell present in the mid to upper levels over the Bahamas, Cuba, and the northeastern Caribbean Sea. CIMSS Vorticity also shows the TUTT cell remaining mostly an upper level feature, but there is some reflection down to 700 mb. As a result, marine platforms are observing east to southeast winds near 5 knots with the Island Chain communities observing near 5 mph.
FORECAST
Deep mean layer ridging across the Atlantic is expected to continue to dominate the sensible weather across the Keys through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. The TUTT cell that has been talked about for the last few days continues to remain in place over the Bahamas southward through Cuba and into the northeast Caribbean Sea. The Keys remain on the western side of this TUTT which is typically the drier side compared to the east side. CIMSS Vorticity shows the TUTT cell still mostly in the upper levels with some reflection seen at 700 mb but this remains mostly an upper level feature. In the low to mid levels, the expansive ridge in place across the Atlantic continues to remain in control with the western periphery extending westward through the Keys. In addition, a plume of Saharan dust is working its way northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Therefore, PoP chances were lowered for today through Sunday night from 20% to 10%. Also, winds are expected to be very light, especially for Sunday, and therefore, there is the potential for a Heat Advisory but we will re-evaluate tonight.
Monday and Monday night, the deep mean layer ridge remains in control with slightly more increased moisture rounding the southwestern periphery of the ridge as the previous Saharan dust starts to vacate the region. Therefore 20% PoPs remain.
Mid to late week, moisture increases a little bit more resulting in PoPs returning to near normal for this time of the year which is near 30%. Therefore, no change to the extended period this forecast package. Overall, continue to expect daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s.
MARINE
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail through the weekend, and into the first half of next week as the ridging that has been in place will retract eastward. Winds will freshen once again next week as the high builds back over mainland Florida Tuesday and Tuesday night, lasting through the middle of the week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH airports. Showers may on occasion develop outside of 10 nm of the airfields but exact timing and location remains unclear and will leave mentions of VCSH for future amendments. Otherwise, light east to southeast winds will prevail.
CLIMATE
In 1930, the daily record low temperature of 70F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 92 84 93 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 438 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 KBYX radar has shown isolated shower and thunderstorm activity mainly in two different regions. Those regions are across the offshore Gulf waters and across the Cay Sal Bank just outside the Florida Keys coastal waters. This activity has remained in the same areas for much of the night with the Island Chain remaining virtually dry with the exception of the Upper Keys near Carysfort Reef Light and Ocean Reef where earlier shower activity sent an outflow boundary through resulting in wind gusts to near 20 knots.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with some isolated locations in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s.
The humidity combined with the air temperature is making it feel like it is between 89 to 95 degrees out there.
Deep mean layer ridging remains the dominant feature across the Atlantic, especially in the low to mid levels with a TUTT cell present in the mid to upper levels over the Bahamas, Cuba, and the northeastern Caribbean Sea. CIMSS Vorticity also shows the TUTT cell remaining mostly an upper level feature, but there is some reflection down to 700 mb. As a result, marine platforms are observing east to southeast winds near 5 knots with the Island Chain communities observing near 5 mph.
FORECAST
Deep mean layer ridging across the Atlantic is expected to continue to dominate the sensible weather across the Keys through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. The TUTT cell that has been talked about for the last few days continues to remain in place over the Bahamas southward through Cuba and into the northeast Caribbean Sea. The Keys remain on the western side of this TUTT which is typically the drier side compared to the east side. CIMSS Vorticity shows the TUTT cell still mostly in the upper levels with some reflection seen at 700 mb but this remains mostly an upper level feature. In the low to mid levels, the expansive ridge in place across the Atlantic continues to remain in control with the western periphery extending westward through the Keys. In addition, a plume of Saharan dust is working its way northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. Therefore, PoP chances were lowered for today through Sunday night from 20% to 10%. Also, winds are expected to be very light, especially for Sunday, and therefore, there is the potential for a Heat Advisory but we will re-evaluate tonight.
Monday and Monday night, the deep mean layer ridge remains in control with slightly more increased moisture rounding the southwestern periphery of the ridge as the previous Saharan dust starts to vacate the region. Therefore 20% PoPs remain.
Mid to late week, moisture increases a little bit more resulting in PoPs returning to near normal for this time of the year which is near 30%. Therefore, no change to the extended period this forecast package. Overall, continue to expect daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s.
MARINE
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail through the weekend, and into the first half of next week as the ridging that has been in place will retract eastward. Winds will freshen once again next week as the high builds back over mainland Florida Tuesday and Tuesday night, lasting through the middle of the week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH airports. Showers may on occasion develop outside of 10 nm of the airfields but exact timing and location remains unclear and will leave mentions of VCSH for future amendments. Otherwise, light east to southeast winds will prevail.
CLIMATE
In 1930, the daily record low temperature of 70F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 92 84 93 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.
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Airport Reports
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMTH
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMTH
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMTH
Wind History graph: MTH
(wind in knots)Alligator Reef Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:03 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT 2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:11 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT 2.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:47 PM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:03 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT 2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:11 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT 2.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:47 PM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Alligator Reef Light, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
1.7 |
1 am |
2 |
2 am |
2.1 |
3 am |
2 |
4 am |
1.7 |
5 am |
1.1 |
6 am |
0.6 |
7 am |
0.2 |
8 am |
-0 |
9 am |
0 |
10 am |
0.3 |
11 am |
0.8 |
12 pm |
1.3 |
1 pm |
1.8 |
2 pm |
2.1 |
3 pm |
2.1 |
4 pm |
1.9 |
5 pm |
1.6 |
6 pm |
1.1 |
7 pm |
0.6 |
8 pm |
0.3 |
9 pm |
0.3 |
10 pm |
0.4 |
11 pm |
0.8 |
Long Key
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 01:47 AM EDT 0.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:58 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:36 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:12 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 02:41 PM EDT 1.14 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM EDT -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 01:47 AM EDT 0.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:58 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:36 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:12 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 02:41 PM EDT 1.14 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM EDT -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:54 PM EDT Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots
12 am |
0.5 |
1 am |
0.9 |
2 am |
1 |
3 am |
0.8 |
4 am |
0.5 |
5 am |
-0 |
6 am |
-0.6 |
7 am |
-1.2 |
8 am |
-1.4 |
9 am |
-1.3 |
10 am |
-0.9 |
11 am |
-0.4 |
12 pm |
0.2 |
1 pm |
0.8 |
2 pm |
1.1 |
3 pm |
1.1 |
4 pm |
1 |
5 pm |
0.6 |
6 pm |
0.1 |
7 pm |
-0.5 |
8 pm |
-0.8 |
9 pm |
-0.9 |
10 pm |
-0.8 |
11 pm |
-0.5 |
Miami, FL,
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