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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 403 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south near 10 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. Scattered showers after midnight.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop.
Monday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night through Thursday night..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Scattered showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 403 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will persist across the coastal waters of the florida keys tonight. Another cold front will approach the florida keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night preceded by slackening breezes. Strong breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday through Thursday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 09...
45 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 15 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 10 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 11 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 17 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 21 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 11 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 5 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 091942 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 242 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 The warming trend continue across the Florida Keys. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints continue to climb into the lower 70s. The dewpoint readings are 2 to 3 degrees higher than MOS guidance, a common bias. Skies are partly cloudy and the KBYX radar detects isolated popcorn showers spreading northwest across portions of the island chain.

FORECAST
The cold front draped to the southwest across the Tennessee River Valley and the southern Plains will blast through the Keys early Monday morning. Ahead of the front, weakly confluent low level flow on Sunday will transition to weakly cyclonic flow Sunday night, both episodes amidst meager moisture. We continue to highlight 30% rain chances, however the multi-model CAM consensus suggests convection spreading north from Cuba initially, followed by the overnight convection in the Gulf will both struggle. It appears moisture return will be the limiting factor. As a wild card, as the flow collapses Sunday evening, dewpoints nearing the mid 70s combined with Gulf side SSTs in the lower 70s will set the stage for a brief chance at sea fog.

Behind the front there will be a short lived cooldown followed by several days of strong (22-27 knots) northeast to east breezes.
The previous frontal boundary will lift back to the north during this period, and may stall very near the natural baroclinic zone created by our nearshore SST gradient. Thus, good rain chances are highlighted Wednesday through Thursday. The breezes appear to diminish Friday through Saturday, but this will be in response to cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico. The eventual track of this winter storm system will determine the sensible weather elements in the extended. The latest ensemble means suggest a track across the Keys and South Florida, stay tuned.

MARINE
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the Straits of Florida due to east to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will persist across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys tonight. Another cold front will approach the Florida Keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night preceded by slackening breezes. Strong breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday through Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected during this northeasterly wind blow.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period.
Winds are expected to be out of the east to east southeast near 10 knots. Similar to yesterday, the winds overnight will shift to the east northeast or northeast, becoming east to east southeast again near or around sunrise. A passing shower could affect MTH in the near term, but confidence in impacts to VIS and CIGS remain low and has been left out of TAF for now.

CLIMATE
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of 3.88 inches was recorded in Key West set back on this date in 2002.
Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. Also, the daily record rainfall of 0.86 inches was recorded in Marathon set back on this date in 2017. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 75 82 70 73 / 10 20 30 10 Marathon 74 83 70 74 / 10 30 30 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Alligator Reef Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:58 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     2.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alligator Reef Light, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
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Sat -- 02:54 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 AM EST     1.18 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:20 PM EST     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:02 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:30 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:12 PM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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