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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 415 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory may be required Monday...
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable, then becoming west to northwest near 10 knots late. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Patchy fog early this evening, then scattered showers overnight.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop.
Monday night..North to northeast winds near 20 knots. Bay waters rough.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters very rough. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Thursday..Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Scattered showers.
Thursday night..Northeast to east winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters very rough. Scattered showers.
Friday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters very rough. Scattered showers.
Friday night..East winds near 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Scattered showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 415 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to fresh breezes will slacken this evening, then become northwest to north overnight as a cold front moves through the florida keys coastal waters. A large area of high pressure across the eastern united states will maintain strong breezes Monday through Friday, well after the short blast of cooler and drier air.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 09...
45 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 15 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 10 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 11 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 17 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 21 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 11 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 5 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 102001 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 301 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The squall line over the Gulf of Mexico continues to make progress to the southeast. The broken line of storms now extends from near the Big Bend to the northern tip of the Yucatan. Behind the line, a cold front has dropped dewpoints into the 30s across LA and AL, with near gale northwest to north breezes. Across the Keys, southeast winds have been slow to diminish, with values ranging from 12 to 16 knots currently. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dewpoint are 72 to 74 degrees--rather humid for early December. The KBYX radar remains echo free.

FORECAST
The main forecast highlights for the next week will be the cold frontal passage late tonight, the persistent strong breezes behind the front, the return of the cold front as a warm front, and potential cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the squall line looks rather impressive at this time, with the departure of the parent short wave into the southern Appalachians this evening, upper level support will decouple from the line.
Thus, we expect only a broken line of showers as the line nears the Keys after midnight. The cooldown will be short-lived, with dewpoints bottoming out in the upper 50s Monday evening.

A southern stream short wave will slide east across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday, which will lift the stalled front back to the north. Screaming easterlies and a relic baroclinic zone are prime ingredients for heavy rainfall.
Multiday rainfall totals could easily eclipse 2 to 4 inches, and although we advertise breezes peaking in the strong range (22-27 knots), the potential exists for near-gale breezes. These stronger winds would fully be realized if cyclogenesis goes as planned in the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. There remains significant differences in location and timing of the developing low, which is understandable given the current location of the upper level feature over the North Pacific. Long story short, once the breezes turn on Monday morning they will stay on for the next week or so.
Heavy winter rainfall is becoming more likely, and not our usual 'warm' summertime rains, but rain with temperatures near 70.

MARINE
Issued at 222 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Small Craft Advisories likely will be required Monday. From synopsis, moderate to fresh breezes will slacken this evening, then become northwest to north overnight as a cold front moves through the Florida Keys coastal waters. A large area of high pressure across the eastern United States will maintain strong breezes Monday through Friday, well after the short blast of cooler and drier air.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through at least this evening. Thereafter, an approaching frontal system is forecast to bring some shower activity to the area that may result in MVFR CIGS and IFR VIS. A post frontal low stratus layer will impact both terminals later in the TAF period, resulting in possibility of IFR conditions with statistical guidance suggesting CIGS as low as 600 feet. Winds are expected to shift from southeast to southwest, eventually clocking to the northwest to north with an increase in speed and gusts.

CLIMATE
On this day in 2019, both the daily record warm low temperature of 78F and the daily record high temperature of 84F were recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 70 74 67 76 / 30 10 10 10 Marathon 69 74 67 77 / 30 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
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Sun -- 12:15 AM EST     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:02 PM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:40 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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