Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Layton, FL

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Area Discussion for - Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 031924 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 324 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

DISCUSSION. The next 7 days will feature near-normal shower and thunderstorm chances, with Sunday's coverage running a bit higher and Monday's coverage running a little lower. Temperatures will average a few degrees above normal.

Day-to-day fluctuations in the weather will mainly vary with movement of an east-west surface ridge axis that is currently shifting slowly southward through the Keys.

SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Monday) Our air mass has moistened over the last 24 hours, with this morning's 12z KEY sounding showing a rise to near-normal PW values. The ridge axis that had kept our PW values below-normal yesterday has moved south into the Straits. These facts alone will support a rise in shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend.

The ridge axis will continue to sink southward toward the north coast of Cuba by Sunday morning, taking its drying subsidence with it. North of the ridge axis over the Keys, our prevailing flow is already in the process of becoming weak southwesterly. This flow will be favorably parallel to the narrow island chain on Saturday to support cloud line showers and thunderstorms during the day.

A larger-scale enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Besides having that ridge axis reach its most southward position, a TUTT low that is currently north of Yucatan Peninsula will meander east toward the Florida Peninsula. The Keys will come under increased upper- level westerly flow and diffluence aloft in the base of the trough. This will serve to deepen our moisture profile and bring a modest increase in larger scale lift. Sunday's forecast will therefore carry the highest rain chances of the 7-day forecast . running in the 35-50 percent range. The higher rain chances will be over the Upper Keys, where westerly flow will try to carry Everglades-borne afternoon thunderstorms eastward across the Upper Keys.

That ridge axis to our south will quickly rebound back north on Sunday night, passing north across the Keys on Monday. A narrow axis of drier air will accompany the ridge, with PW values progged to quickly but briefly dry out on Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will drop accordingly.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through next Friday) A steady-state extended forecast is in store, with near-normal rain chances in the 20-30 percent range each day. That ridge axis will lift north to near Central Florida on Tuesday and remain there through at least Thursday. Therefore, the Keys will resume typically gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes. PW values will average near the 75th percentile for early July (moister than normal), which is a plus for convection. However, 500 mb heights will be on the high side in the 591-594 decameter range, supporting increased low-level inhibition as evidenced by marginally hostile forecast 850 mb temps around +19C to +20C. These factors should cancel each other out and ultimately lead to near-normal rain chances with above normal temperatures.

Ensemble means show a weakness in the subtropical ridge developing near our longitude next Friday, which could bring an uptick in activity. Given the strong reliability of climo rain chances in the extended forecast this time of year, will wait before biting off on any increased rain chances.

MARINE. An east-west surface ridge axis over the Keys this afternoon will settle south through the Straits on Saturday, reaching near the north coast of Cuba on Sunday. The ridge will rebound back northward across the Keys on Monday, reaching Central Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Close proximity of the ridge axis will hold down wind speeds, with only light to gentle breezes expected through Monday. Once the ridge reaches Central Florida on Tue and Wed, then moderate breezes will become possible over the Straits in the evening hours.

Pop-up summertime showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern for mariners.

AVIATION. Through Saturday afternoon, the main concern will be with slow- moving but short-lived pulse showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminals. Am only willing to rule out a mention of VCSH in the TAFs during the evening hours. Late night tends to feature an increase in convective activity, then the daytime thermal lift will again lead to cloud line development along the narrow island chain. The good news for pilots is that convection will be short-lived . 1 hour or less. VFR conditions will be the prevailing condition.

CLIMATE. On this date in 2019, Marathon recorded a record warm low temperature of 85F.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 83 91 82 91 / 20 20 30 30 Marathon 82 93 82 93 / 20 20 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . Haner Aviation/Nowcasts . Haner Data Acquisition . DR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL	10 mi	76 min			93°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL	12 mi	16 min	SSW 4.1 G 6				1012.3 hPa
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL	16 mi	76 min			94°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL	16 mi	136 min			94°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL	19 mi	76 min	S 6		96°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL	21 mi	76 min			94°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL	22 mi	76 min			94°F
BKYF1	24 mi	76 min			96°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL	25 mi	46 min	S 2.9 G 4.1	86°F	93°F		1013.2 hPa
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL	26 mi	76 min			96°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL	26 mi	76 min			93°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL	27 mi	76 min			96°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL	27 mi	26 min	SW 2.9 G 4.1	85°F			1014 hPa	75°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL	28 mi	136 min			94°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL	28 mi	136 min			95°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL	29 mi	76 min			99°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL	29 mi	136 min			96°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL	31 mi	136 min			94°F
THRF1	32 mi	136 min			94°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL	32 mi	76 min			95°F
WWEF1	34 mi	136 min			92°F
LRIF1	36 mi	76 min			94°F
CWAF1	39 mi	136 min			93°F
NRRF1	40 mi	76 min			93°F
SREF1	45 mi	76 min			91°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL	45 mi	136 min			94°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL	45 mi	76 min			91°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL	46 mi	76 min			88°F
HREF1	48 mi	76 min			90°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL	22 mi	23 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	86°F	73°F	67%	1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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