FXUS62 KKEY 261907 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 307 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Even though the expansive ridging across the Atlantic will continue to lose some of its amplification, courtesy of a deepening trough over the northeastern U.S., the overall message of a fairly quiet forecast still stands through the weekend and into the start of next week. We could essentially copy the forecast from today, and paste it into tomorrow through the first half of next week. Overall, highs will remain in the lower 90s with heat indices approaching the upper 100s. Overnight hours won't offer much relief as temperatures bottom out in the lower 80s. Even with moisture aloft, there isn't much in terms of large- scale lifting mechanisms for any shower activity, but land/sea breeze interaction and outflows from any convection outside of our forecast area could kick off spotty showers and occasional thunderstorms, so we'll opt to keep the 20 percent PoPs in the forecast.

Guidance continues to hit at the possibility of unsettled conditions as we approach the middle of the week, but PoPs remain at 30 percent until there is some clarification as to why the models are resolving an increase in activity. It looks like a weak wave comes off of the Africa coast, and slowly tracks toward our general area, arriving sometime over the second half of the week.
This would give us the ingredients for a productive atmosphere, but there is too much uncertainty in the long-term period preventing us from really honing in on what things may look like next week. This is a lot of words to simply say that our typical summertime pattern continues, but changes may be on the horizon.
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