Friday, July3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Layton, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:18PM Friday July 3, 2020 9:15 PM EDT (01:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:05PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 420 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Tonight..South to southwest winds near 10 knots, becoming west and decreasing to near 5 knots. Bay waters a light chop, becoming smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming southwest near 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest to west winds near 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Bay waters a light chop, becoming smooth. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Variable winds near 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds near 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday through Wednesday..East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Layton, FL
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location: 24.8, -80.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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FXUS62 KKEY 031924 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 324 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

DISCUSSION. The next 7 days will feature near-normal shower and thunderstorm chances, with Sunday's coverage running a bit higher and Monday's coverage running a little lower. Temperatures will average a few degrees above normal.

Day-to-day fluctuations in the weather will mainly vary with movement of an east-west surface ridge axis that is currently shifting slowly southward through the Keys.

SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Monday) Our air mass has moistened over the last 24 hours, with this morning's 12z KEY sounding showing a rise to near-normal PW values. The ridge axis that had kept our PW values below-normal yesterday has moved south into the Straits. These facts alone will support a rise in shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend.

The ridge axis will continue to sink southward toward the north coast of Cuba by Sunday morning, taking its drying subsidence with it. North of the ridge axis over the Keys, our prevailing flow is already in the process of becoming weak southwesterly. This flow will be favorably parallel to the narrow island chain on Saturday to support cloud line showers and thunderstorms during the day.

A larger-scale enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Besides having that ridge axis reach its most southward position, a TUTT low that is currently north of Yucatan Peninsula will meander east toward the Florida Peninsula. The Keys will come under increased upper- level westerly flow and diffluence aloft in the base of the trough. This will serve to deepen our moisture profile and bring a modest increase in larger scale lift. Sunday's forecast will therefore carry the highest rain chances of the 7-day forecast . running in the 35-50 percent range. The higher rain chances will be over the Upper Keys, where westerly flow will try to carry Everglades-borne afternoon thunderstorms eastward across the Upper Keys.

That ridge axis to our south will quickly rebound back north on Sunday night, passing north across the Keys on Monday. A narrow axis of drier air will accompany the ridge, with PW values progged to quickly but briefly dry out on Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will drop accordingly.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through next Friday) A steady-state extended forecast is in store, with near-normal rain chances in the 20-30 percent range each day. That ridge axis will lift north to near Central Florida on Tuesday and remain there through at least Thursday. Therefore, the Keys will resume typically gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes. PW values will average near the 75th percentile for early July (moister than normal), which is a plus for convection. However, 500 mb heights will be on the high side in the 591-594 decameter range, supporting increased low-level inhibition as evidenced by marginally hostile forecast 850 mb temps around +19C to +20C. These factors should cancel each other out and ultimately lead to near-normal rain chances with above normal temperatures.

Ensemble means show a weakness in the subtropical ridge developing near our longitude next Friday, which could bring an uptick in activity. Given the strong reliability of climo rain chances in the extended forecast this time of year, will wait before biting off on any increased rain chances.

MARINE. An east-west surface ridge axis over the Keys this afternoon will settle south through the Straits on Saturday, reaching near the north coast of Cuba on Sunday. The ridge will rebound back northward across the Keys on Monday, reaching Central Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Close proximity of the ridge axis will hold down wind speeds, with only light to gentle breezes expected through Monday. Once the ridge reaches Central Florida on Tue and Wed, then moderate breezes will become possible over the Straits in the evening hours.

Pop-up summertime showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern for mariners.

AVIATION. Through Saturday afternoon, the main concern will be with slow- moving but short-lived pulse showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminals. Am only willing to rule out a mention of VCSH in the TAFs during the evening hours. Late night tends to feature an increase in convective activity, then the daytime thermal lift will again lead to cloud line development along the narrow island chain. The good news for pilots is that convection will be short-lived . 1 hour or less. VFR conditions will be the prevailing condition.

CLIMATE. On this date in 2019, Marathon recorded a record warm low temperature of 85F.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 83 91 82 91 / 20 20 30 30 Marathon 82 93 82 93 / 20 20 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . Haner Aviation/Nowcasts . Haner Data Acquisition . DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 10 mi76 min 93°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 12 mi16 min SSW 4.1 G 6 1012.3 hPa
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi76 min 94°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 16 mi136 min 94°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 19 mi76 min S 6 96°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 21 mi76 min 94°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 22 mi76 min 94°F
BKYF1 24 mi76 min 96°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 25 mi46 min S 2.9 G 4.1 86°F 93°F1013.2 hPa
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 26 mi76 min 96°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 26 mi76 min 93°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 27 mi76 min 96°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 27 mi26 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 85°F 1014 hPa75°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 28 mi136 min 94°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 28 mi136 min 95°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 29 mi76 min 99°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 29 mi136 min 96°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 31 mi136 min 94°F
THRF1 32 mi136 min 94°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 32 mi76 min 95°F
WWEF1 34 mi136 min 92°F
LRIF1 36 mi76 min 94°F
CWAF1 39 mi136 min 93°F
NRRF1 40 mi76 min 93°F
SREF1 45 mi76 min 91°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 45 mi136 min 94°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 45 mi76 min 91°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 46 mi76 min 88°F
HREF1 48 mi76 min 90°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Florida Keys - Marathon International Airport, FL22 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair86°F73°F67%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTH

Wind History from MTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE4SE6SE5SE54CalmSE3S33Calm33S5SE4SE6S6S6S5S5SW53SW4Calm
1 day agoE4E4E4E33SE5SE33E3E4SE5SE44SE4SE7SE55SE6SE4S6S5CalmCalmSE3
2 days agoCalmE3CalmSE3SE3E4E3E3SE4SE5SE4SE443SE5SE6S5444S54CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:21 AM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:15 AM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:13 PM EDT     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:05 PM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.20.40.80.90.90.5-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.50.311.51.61.51

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.