Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 4:38 PM   Moonset 3:34 AM

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GMZ031 Florida Bay Including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, And Buttonwood Sound- 1019 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Overnight - West to northwest winds near 10 knots, becoming south to southwest 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday - Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west and increasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Monday night - West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest to north and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - North to northeast winds near 5 knots, becoming variable in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Light and variable winds, becoming northeast to east near 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east and increasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Wednesday night - East winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - Northeast to east winds near 10 knots, becoming east and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast. Bay waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Friday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1019 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - The western extent of a low-level ridge axis that extends west-northwest has begun to loosen its grip across the florida keys. At the same time a frontal boundary is sliding south across the florida peninsula, which has shifted breezes from the northwest. These breezes will briefly go light and variable overnight before becoming south to southwest by Monday morning. Lastly, there may be a break in the rain-free conditions tonight through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 200254 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Winds are on a downward trend after a surge developed in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Winds quickly clocked around from the southwest, becoming west to northwest and reaching sustained speeds of around 15 knots. Within the last hour these winds are quickly coming down and boxing around the compass again.
Convection that was out across the southeast Gulf of Mexico dissipated well before it got to our waters. Meanwhile, convection is blossoming along an outflow boundary from prior showers and thunderstorms that develop along the north coast of Cuba. These showers and thunderstorms have entered the Straits of Florida between the Marathon Humps and Cay Sal Bank. This current activity is trekking north to northeast.

Going through the overnight, additional convection is possible given how many ghost boundaries are out there. Where and which ones will light up remains questionable. Hi-res CAMs suggest that an outflow boundary moving northwest from the convection centered near Cay Sal Bank will have the "best" potential of triggering new convection. It remains to be seen how far northwest it will get and if it will stall across the island chain overnight. For now will maintain 40 percent PoPs given the uncertainties listed above. Nonetheless, tonight through Tuesday morning will be the best period to see accumulating rain in the past 2 weeks.

MARINE
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The western extent of a low-level ridge axis that extends west-northwest has begun to loosen its grip across the Florida Keys. At the same time a frontal boundary is sliding south across the Florida Peninsula, which has shifted breezes from the northwest. These breezes will briefly go light and variable overnight before becoming south to southwest by Monday morning.
Lastly, there may be a break in the rain-free conditions tonight through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for now. Watching for the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop along remnant boundaries. Given uncertainty on the placement of individual boundaries and which boundaries will trigger convection, will at least maintain mentions of VCSH but have omitted TS for a later update.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Alligator Reef Light
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Sun -- 12:37 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alligator Reef Light, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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