Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Islandia, FL

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Through early next week, the upper level pattern across the southern United States will be primarily characterized by increasing heights/high pressure, as model ensembles consistently show a longwave trough from the western U.S. progressing eastward into the central portions of the country. This will translate at the surface to high pressure over the western Atlantic which will lead to an E/SE wind flow and continue the warming trend across our region. Despite the warm air advection and source of the airmass from the subtropical Atlantic, moisture levels are expected to remain seasonably low. Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation through Tuesday are less than 20% at this time, so will keep precip out of the forecast for this time frame.

By Wednesday, model ensembles are in generally good agreement in depicting the longwave trough progressing eastward across the eastern U.S., which supports a surface cold front moving down the Florida peninsula during the day on Wednesday and passing through South Florida late in the day or evening. Preceding the front, a brief window of higher moisture return into the region may materialize as winds shift ahead of the front to S/SW and mean precipitable water values reach 1.5 inches across South Florida.
Current model blends/consensus indicate PoPs in the 30-40% range area-wide on Wednesday, which could result in the best shot at measurable rainfall in quite a while (a full month in some areas). There may also be enough instability for a couple of thunderstorms, although in general the atmospheric instability/dynamics do not look particularly conducive for anything widespread or strong. A factor which could further limit or even reduce rain chances is the decreasing amplitude with time of the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. which would result in less support for precipitation ahead of the front.

Following the frontal passage late Wednesday, confidence appears to be increasing in cooler temperatures, increasing N/NE winds, and mainly dry conditions for the second half of the week as continental high pressure builds in from the southeastern United States.

Temperatures will average above normal through Wednesday, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows warming from the 50s/60s on Monday morning to the 60s/70s on Wednesday morning. Following the front, a return to lows in the 40s/50s is looking a bit more likely for Thursday and possibly Friday mornings. This will be monitored over the next few days as trends continue to become better established with the evolution of the longwave pattern over the continental United States.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the 18Z TAF cycle.
Winds shifting to the NE around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon and evening. NE winds continue tonight and tomorrow at 5-10 kts, though may shift more ENE later tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 1215 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Increasing wind speeds in the wake of the cold front this morning will bring cautionary conditions across the Atlantic and Gulf waters this weekend. Conditions should improve late in the weekend into early next week.

BEACHES
Issued at 1215 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

There is a high risk for rip currents today along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida as onshore flow increases. This elevated rip current risk will linger through the early to middle portions of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 63 77 68 80 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 59 78 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 61 78 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 62 78 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 65 76 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 64 76 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 62 79 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 62 76 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 63 77 67 80 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 56 78 60 79 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.