Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:37PM Saturday August 24, 2019 7:54 AM EDT (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:34PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 241148
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
748 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Aviation Weak area of low pressure drifting near lake
okeechobee generating shra tsra mainly over atlc and along east
coast. Vcsh for east coast terminals through cycle, with vcts this
afternoon as daytime heating brings more activity. Kapf likely dry
through most of afternoon, with late day tsra potential. Light ssw
winds on south side of low this morn, with NW at kapf on the west
side of low. Seabreeze circulation takes over this afternoon with
sse-se for east coast and wnw for kapf.

Prev discussion issued 253 am edt Sat aug 24 2019
discussion...

the main story for the weekend is the area of low pressure sitting
over south florida. While it is tropical in nature, no significant
development is forecast while the low is over the area. Models
show the low meandering around the area for the next 24 to 36
hours, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.

However, given the tropical nature, and 500mb temperatures around
-5.5c to -6c, would expect the lightning to be fairly limited
today in count, but still possible. The GFS is showing plenty of
surface based CAPE today, with values ranging from around 900
j kg to well over 2000 j kg, varying spatially and temporally.

The GFS is showing the pwats to exceed 2 inches, and may be near
2.5 inches at times. This would bring heavy rain to the area,
which may also bring some localized flooding, mainly in the urban
areas where streets may flood due to poor drainage and in low
laying areas.

The low should begin to move off to the northeast sometime on
Sunday, and could possibly develop into a tropical system once it
leaves the area and the center returns to the marine environment.

However, both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at the system
perhaps being a hybrid, with a training cold front behind it. This
is seen in the surface wind fields, with a wind shift along a
boundary from the gulf waters, through the ft myers area, to the
western edge of lake okeechobee, and northeast through the vero
beach area. This boundary may act as a focus for some convection
on Sunday, especially in the lake region. By Sunday night,
the boundary become diffuse and the wind becomes more uniform out
of the southwest.

As the system departs the area, the GFS and the ECMWF diverge as
to what type of weather to expect. The ECMWF keeps showers and
storms over the area, even with a surface high building, as well
as a 500mb ridge. The GFS has similar features, but is drier for
the beginning of the week, with what appears to be a dry slot
behind the developing system. For now, kept Monday afternoon as
fairly active with showers and thunderstorms, and backed off on
pops for Tuesday, but still have a chance of convection, mainly in
the afternoon.

By the middle of the week, the models show a 500mb trough digging
into the southeast us, with the main low pressure system well to
the north, over the hudson bay. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a very
long cold front moving into north florida during the latter half
of the week, helping to bring additional instability to the area,
as well as keeping moisture in place. Both models are also hinting
that another surface low may develop over the region, along the
stalled frontal boundary. This would help to enhance convective
activity for Thursday and Friday. For now, kept pops in the chance
range.

Temperature wise, the models are coming in with seasonable temps
through the forecast period, with highs around 90 and lows in the
mid to upper 70s.

Marine...

a low pressure system, sitting over south florida, will keep the
winds generally out of the south for the atlantic waters, and
northerly for the gulf today. As the system begins to exit the
area on Sunday, the wind should eventually become more uniform out
of the southwest across the area. The low will keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms over all south florida waters through
the weekend, and into the beginning of the week. Some of the
showers and storms may bring locally rough marine conditions as
well as a moderate risk for waterspouts this weekend, and possibly
Monday.

Otherwise, seas are forecast to be generally one to two feet
through the forecast period, with seas increasing to around three
feet in the offshore atlantic periodically through the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 87 77 92 77 80 40 60 30
fort lauderdale 89 78 91 78 70 40 60 30
miami 89 77 91 78 60 40 50 30
naples 93 76 89 78 60 40 40 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL156 mi58 minN 010.00 miOvercast78°F75°F94%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW5N6N5N8E3NE5CalmN3NE4E4SE3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S5CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW5N4NE9NE4E8NE5E10NE8NE9NE11NE9N9N7N7N6N5N3N6N4NW3NW5NW4N4
2 days agoCalmE5E9E8NE7E7E6E8E7E9E7E4E4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE4NE4CalmNW4N3CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
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Sat -- 12:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:22 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:28 PM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.52.72.72.52.11.61.2111.31.72.32.83.13.33.22.92.41.81.41.11.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas
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Fresh Creek
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Sat -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:23 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:00 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.72.92.82.62.31.81.41.21.31.72.12.633.33.43.332.521.61.41.41.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.