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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1022 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in nw to N swell early in the evening.
Wed night..N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in N swell.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in N to ne swell.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in ne swell.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in ne swell.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in ne to E swell.
Sat night..E to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E to se swell.

FXUS62 KMFL 061703 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1203 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1132 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

A mild and dry (PWATs < 0.5 inches, dewpoints in the 30s and 40s)
airmass is filtering into the area this afternoon behind a reinforcing cold front. The cirrus deck has largely scattered out, although even with the scattering of the clouds, highs will struggle to even get into the low 70s over much of the area.
Overnight the north-northwest winds will likely not completely drop off which will inhibit radiational cooling. However, given the cool and dry airmass, still expect the coolest lows of the season thus far to occur. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s near the Lake, to the mid to upper 50s over the east coast metro (with the winds resulting in wind chills being a few degrees cooler).

The sfc. high pressure to our north will shift eastward on Thursday, resulting in winds veering more NE-E during the day on Thursday. This will result in an increasing maritime influence on the east coast, manifested as a noticeable increase in dewpoints, although with 850 temps under 10C suspect high temps will only increase slightly (to the low to mid 70s). Given the increase in low-lvl moisture we will see an increase in low-lvl clouds, however the lack of deeper moisture combined with upstream shortwave ridging, should keep rain chances low (although some sprinkles can't be ruled out on the east coast).



LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

The colder conditions are anticipated to be transient, as an upper short-wave ridge traverses the Gulf of Mexico, while a surface high simultaneously slides eastward. This will result in a transition of wind patterns from a northerly component to an easterly flow by Friday. This shift is expected to facilitate a temperature increase of 5 to 10 degrees relative to Thursday mornings lows. However, the rise in daytime highs will be gradual, with the region experiencing another day of temperatures predominantly in the 70s.

The onset of the next weather disturbance is forecast over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, positioned along the periphery of the surface high and in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave trough exiting South Texas and Mexico. The moisture associated with this disturbance is expected to increase incrementally through the weekend, in advance of an approaching longwave mid-level trough from the central United States, which is projected to extend southward upon reaching the eastern portion of the country. Model guidance presents some variability regarding the location of the associated surface low, with some models indicating a more northerly position near Ontario, while others suggest a southerly trajectory in the Ohio River Valley, south of the Great Lakes.
Given this uncertainty, the forecast will continue to include significant chances of rain for Sunday into Monday, aligning with the anticipated timeframe of the frontal passage through the region. A slight chance of thunderstorms is also being maintained in the forecast, as a more southerly track of the low could extend the range of conditions conducive to thunderstorms and potentially more robust convection. Currently, the dynamics most favorable for strong storms appear to remain north of South Florida, but rapid changes are possible with a forecast extending this far into the future. Residents and interested parties are advised to stay informed of forecast updates throughout the week and into the weekend, in case a significant threat of heavy rainfall or strong storms emerge across parts of South Florida.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. N-NW winds sustained 10-15kts with occasional gusts to 20kts will remain possible through the afternoon before winds generally decrease into the 5-10kt range overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 1132 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

Hazardous marine conditions will continue today behind a cold front. Winds will generally decrease this evening into tonight, with hazardous seas (7-9ft) over the Atlantic waters persisting through Thursday morning. E-NE winds, at times reaching cautionary levels will then persist through the remainder of the workweek.

BEACHES
Issued at 1132 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

The rip current risk along the east coast will increase to the high range Thursday into Friday as onshore (easterly) winds increase. This elevated threat may persist into the weekend as winds retain their onshore component.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 57 74 66 78 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 53 75 62 79 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 56 75 65 79 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 55 75 65 79 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 56 75 66 78 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 57 74 65 78 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 54 75 64 78 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 56 73 64 77 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 56 75 65 78 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 51 75 59 78 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.

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Nassau
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:23 AM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:17 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:33 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:42 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Fresh Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:25 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:02 AM EST     1.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:33 PM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

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