Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:03PM Sunday July 12, 2020 3:38 PM EDT (19:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:03PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 121724 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 124 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Aviation. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon with VCTS at all sites. MVFR/IFR cigs with storms that move directly over terminals. Convection should diminish later this evening with light winds overnight. Southwest winds once again tomorrow.

Prev Discussion. /issued 939 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020/

Update . Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms have been ongoing once again this morning over the local waters, southwest Florida and the interior.

Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms across South Florida. Under southwesterly flow activity will move northeast across the interior towards the east coast metro later this morning and afternoon. The morning 12Z sounding was a little drier, as was expected yesterday, as a bit of an isolated drier mid-level slot has nudged in over extreme southeastern portions of the peninsula. Given the flow pattern and current activity the highest rain chances will be northern Miami-Dade counties through Palm Beach and the Lake region later today.

While flow has increase out of the southwest around 10 to 15 knots, flooding will still be the main concern with this activity due to training of storms over the same area and high rainfall rates. Other impacts will be frequent lightning and a very isolated risk of a strong wind gust. The atmosphere parameters are not very impressive with poor mid-level lapse rates of 5.5-5.7 C/km and 500mb temp around -5C. This does not support widespread strong updrafts or robust convection. However, dont want to rule out a gusty downburst over an area that may get more clearing and diurnal heating.

Given the added cloud cover and rain coverage temps will stay in the low 90s, but given the later start to convection compared to yesterday we will be able to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Heat indices will be in the triple digits with highest values over Palm Beach and southwest Florida up to 107.

Prev Discussion . /issued 312 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020/

Short Term (Today through Monday) . An unsettled pattern continues as a mid-level trough sits over the region today. At the surface, the ridge axis of high pressure extending from the Atlantic over the Florida Straits and Cuba. This ridge axis location will keep much of the region in light southwesterly to westerly surface flow. Sea breeze development is expected again today with the flow restricting the Atlantic sea breeze progress inland yet again today. Morning convection along the Gulf coast will transition to a more widespread coverage over the interior before a focus along the east half of the peninsula comes in the afternoon and early evening. The additional cloud cover and earlier convective start in most areas should allow temperatures to remain a bit cooler than in previous days with temperatures in the lower 90s similar to Saturday in most areas.

The afternoon convection has a chance to produce an isolated strong cell or two again. The primary concerns are localized damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and funnel clouds around boundary collisions. Precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches do combine with a slow storm motion to create a concern for minor street flooding again today if an area were to see repeated rainfall. One positive aspect of the moist atmosphere is that lapse rates in the hail growth zone are not very robust (less than 6 C/km) which keeps the threat of hail low, though not non-zero if a strong updraft were to develop and persist. The main convective focus will again by boundaries such as remnants from previous convective activity and the sea breezes.

Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday) . An area of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. The general wind flow across the region will be weak during this time frame which will allow for the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes as they move inland. With the relatively weak wind flow in place, storm motion will be determined by sea breeze boundary collisions as well as outflow boundary propagation. The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be over the interior sections. High temperatures will remain on the warm side through the middle of the week as they will rise into the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid to upper 90s across the interior sections.

As Thursday approaches, the weather pattern across the region will begin to change. Both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show an inverted surface trough moving into the region from the Bahamas. This will allow for deep tropical moisture to advect into the area and an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week and into next weekend. With the increased amount of moisture in place, the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding of the urban and poor drainage areas will be in place. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures during the end of the week will range from around 90 across the east coast to the lower to mid 90s across the interior sections.

Marine . Generally benign marine conditions are expected through mid week. Later in the week, an approaching inverted trough could create increasing winds and waves. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible and may create locally hazardous winds and seas. Waterspouts are also possible with this activity.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 77 92 76 93 / 30 50 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 79 92 / 20 40 10 50 Miami 78 93 78 93 / 20 40 10 40 Naples 78 91 78 92 / 30 40 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 33/Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL156 mi42 minWSW 12 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F74°F61%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5NW14
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2 days agoS6SE12SE4S5S5SW6SW4SW5SW5SW5SW3SW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3W4W7N6W6W17
G23
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Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:39 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:19 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.72.82.62.21.71.20.90.80.91.31.82.32.72.92.82.52.11.61.211.11.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas
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Fresh Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:41 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM EDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:18 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.82.82.62.21.81.31.11.11.31.72.12.52.832.92.72.21.81.41.31.41.61.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.