Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Islandia, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:07PM Friday February 21, 2020 10:50 AM EST (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 4:32PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Islandia, FL
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location: 25, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 211449 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 949 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

Update. A cold front is currently marching southward across the area this morning. While cloud cover is increasing slightly ahead of the front, considerable cloudiness should linger through the rest of the day, with northerly winds also increasing down the peninsula behind the boundary. Effectively, these gusty winds will result in building swell and surf heights along the Palm Beach coastline. Therefore, have issued a High Risk of Rip Currents for today and High Surf Advisory beginning overnight for Palm Beach through at least tomorrow evening. For the remainder of the South Florida beaches, a moderate risk of Rip currents exists today before increasing to a High Risk for Broward and Miami-Dade overnight. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for coastal Palm Beach beginning this afternoon through tomorrow morning for wind gusts up to 35 mph.

Besides the accumulating hazards across South Florida today, a chance of showers will continue for mainly the east coast metro and Atlantic waters behind the line of showers associated with the frontal boundary, which is observed on radar this morning.

Prev Discussion. /issued 705 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020/

Aviation . MVFR to IFR cigs are advecting across South Florida from the north ahead of a cold frontal boundary. Expect IFR cigs this morning becoming MVFR cigs throughout the period. Isolated to scattered SHRA will also be possible throughout the period as the front moves over S. FL.

Prev Discussion . /issued 413 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020/

Short Term (Friday through Saturday Night) .

Friday .

There is currently a line of showers moving eastward across the offshore Atlantic waters which should diminish throughout the morning as a cold front approaches South Florida from the north. Patchy fog and low ceilings have developed ahead of the frontal boundary and are working their way into South Florida early this morning. The cold frontal boundary is currently located to the north of Lake Okeechobee and is forecast to push through the northern portions of South Florida late this morning. Winds will steadily increase from the north throughout the day today as the frontal boundary progresses southward across South Florida. Isolated to scattered showers are expected with the passage of the cold front and my linger along the Atlantic coast of South Florida throughout the day today. Wind gusts are forecast to reach 25 to 30 mph late this afternoon along the Atlantic coastline of South Florida while the rest of the area will experience wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Minimum temperatures this morning will be in the mid to upper 60s and maximum temperatures will be in the 70s across South Florida.

Saturday .

By Saturday morning, the aforementioned cold frontal boundary will be located to the south of South Florida while cooler and drier air advects into the region behind it. The pressure gradient will remain tight, leading to wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph along the Atlantic coastline of South Florida Saturday morning. Winds will gradually subside throughout the day on Saturday as the pressure gradient begins to weaken. Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible throughout the day on Saturday, especially along the Atlantic coast of South Florida. Minimum temperatures Saturday morning will be in the upper 40s near Lake Okeechobee and inland South Florida, while the eastern areas will experience the upper 50s to low 60s. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s across South Florida.

Hazardous marine and beach conditions will accompany the passage of the aforementioned cold frontal boundary and should linger throughout the weekend into early next week (see Marine and Beach sections below).

Long Term (Saturday Night through Thursday) .

Surface high pressure builds back over the southeastern United States behind the departing cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Drier conditions will continue through the end of the weekend with a breezy northeasterly to easterly flow capable of pushing any shallow Atlantic showers that form ashore. Temperatures on Sunday will briefly cool to around seasonal norms before a warming trend returns as the week begins.

The next system will emerge over the central United States as a mid- level low over Kansas and Oklahoma spurs a surface low with a cold front draping towards the Gulf coast. The surface high will slide into the Atlantic as this system pushes eastward Monday into Tuesday. As the mid-level low weakens into a trough, the surface low will lift towards the Ohio River valley and Great Lakes region while the front will push into Florida. Eventually the front's progress will slow heading into Wednesday as the surface low pushes into the northern Atlantic waters off New England.

A reinforcing mid-level trough will push through the eastern half of the country to close out the long term forecast period, which should push the surface front across the rest of the peninsula of Florida into the Bahamas and Cuba. Cannot rule out the potential of thunderstorms with this frontal passage, particularly over the warmer Atlantic waters. There is lower confidence in this portion of the forecast as there is some divergence in timing and the synoptic scale features between the different members of global guidance.

The 00z ECMWF is favoring a faster frontal clearance with a more robust Gulf high pressure building in which could usher in some cooler air faster behind the front beyond the forecast period. The 00z GFS is a bit slower with the frontal clearance with the center of the high remaining further north and west. There is plenty of time to keep an eye on things but with this forecast package the trend is favoring the ECMWF solution with the potential of some chillier temperatures not out of the question in the near future.

Marine .

Marine conditions will deteriorate through the day behind the cold front. Most of the waters will see advisory conditions with the Atlantic waters seeing frequent gusts to Gale force. Accordingly, a Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters starting at 12z along with Small Craft Advisories as necessary for the other waters.

Hazardous seas will build due to these strong winds with the Gulf reaching up to 7 feet and swell aiding the Atlantic to reach 10 to 15 feet over the coming days. Conditions should begin to improve early next week in the Atlantic.

Beach Forecast .

Wind and swell driven increases in surf and waves will create hazardous beach conditions along the Atlantic coast this weekend. A brief westerly to northwesterly flow could create a non-zero rip current risk along the Gulf beaches but that should quickly subside by Saturday. The Atlantic will remain upset through the weekend into early next week.

Another concern is the potential for coastal flooding with high tide due to the new moon this weekend. The northeasterly to easterly wind, persistent swell, and high seas will contribute to the potential for higher-than-normal tides which could create minor coastal impacts for at least this weekend. Will continue to monitor the latest forecast models to see if a coastal flood advisory will be needed for some or all of the coastal areas this weekend. The last few high tide observations are running almost half a foot above predicted levels.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 72 59 71 61 / 30 40 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 76 60 72 64 / 20 30 30 10 Miami 77 59 73 63 / 20 20 30 10 Naples 74 50 75 56 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Saturday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ610.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for AMZ650- 651-670-671.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ630.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

Update . 11/HVN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL156 mi1.9 hrsNW 1010.00 miFair73°F69°F89%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E8E10SE7SW6CalmSE8S6S3CalmS4CalmCalmW4W7W6W6W6W4W6W7W7NW10NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:03 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:28 AM EST     3.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:50 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:31 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:53 PM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.611.62.32.83.23.12.82.21.50.90.50.40.611.62.22.62.72.521.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fresh Creek, Andros Island, Bahamas
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Fresh Creek
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Fri -- 05:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:34 AM EST     3.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:43 PM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:34 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:08 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:48 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.81.21.72.32.83.23.22.92.31.71.10.80.70.91.31.82.32.72.82.62.11.50.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.