Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:35PM Monday December 16, 2019 2:03 AM EST (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 10:54AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 920 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Monday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..South southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday night and Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 920 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure over the area will begin to push off to the east tonight. This will bring a more southeast to southerly flow for the beginning of the week. A cold front will slowly approach the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing showers and possibly a few isolated Thunderstorms for the middle of the week. The front should pass through on Thursday, allowing for quieter and drier conditions for the end of the week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 14, 2019 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 12 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 16 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 160550 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1250 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Aviation. VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Although there are low chances of some showers this afternoon over the Atlantic terminals, will keep mention of rain out of the TAFS attm and update as necessary. Mainly ESE winds prevail during the forecast period, becoming gusty at times after 14Z.

Prev Discussion. /issued 301 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019/

Short Term (Tonight through Monday) .

High pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft will lead to a benign weather pattern across southern Florida through Monday. As the high builds in strength and slides eastward into the Atlantic, easterly flow will continue over the region through Monday. As the gradient increases, Monday could be much more blustery compared to today with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible, particularly along the Atlantic coast.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight with much of Southwest Florida in the upper 50s to 60s while Southeast Florida ranges from the 60s to around 70. Areas right along each coast will be warmer thanks to the moderating influence of the waters. Most of the area will rebound into the 80s on Monday afternoon, but the gusty winds may make things feel a few degrees cooler. With the easterly to southeasterly flow persisting, moisture return and moderating temperatures will continue into Monday night with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s over inland Southwest Florida into the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast.

Long Term .

Monday Night through Wednesday Night .

Large-scale troughing will advance across the eastern states as a closed upper circulation progresses through the upper Great Lakes region. Surface low pressure will deepen northeastward from the southern Appalachians towards the Canadian Maritimes as an associated cold front crosses the southern Florida Peninsula on Tuesday Night to Wednesday Morning. Moisture will increase in the lowest 20 kft of the troposphere in association with the low-level front and some weak vorticity perturbations aloft as modest instability builds across the area on Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to increasing shower chances, along with a few thunderstorms possible during the daylight hours on Tuesday. Showers remain possible into Wednesday in the cool post-frontal regime until the lingering moisture exits. 850 mb moisture convergence is noted on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, although Corfidi vectors appear to remain progressive. While this synoptic setup doesn't appear overly favorable for a widespread heavy rain event, we'll need to keep an eye on the mesoscale details in case a localized heavy rain risk develops over some portion of our area. High temperatures should be mild on Tuesday given southerly flow advecting in a warm/humid airmass, with cooling expected by Wednesday with a cool, cloudy, and showery post-frontal regime. Much cooler readings are expected by Wednesday night with lows dropping into the 40s west of the Lake, 50s for the west coast and most inland areas, and lower 60s for the east coast.

Thursday through Sunday .

A sharpening upper trough will progress through the eastern states with a consensus of the forecast models coming into better agreement in carving out a closed low over the Gulf Coast states on Saturday, before tracking it east to east-southeast across Florida on Sunday. This pattern increases the chances for surface cyclogenesis somewhere in the vicinity of central/south Florida over the weekend, along with the possibility for impactful weather including heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms. While things may change given that we're several days out, this portion of the extended forecast will require careful attention in the days going forward. Temperatures should be near to perhaps above average depending the ultimate location of any surface low development and whether our area makes it into a solid warm sector.

Marine .

High pressure builds in to kick off the work week, with persistent easterly to southeasterly flow remaining and the potential for elevated seas and periods of easterly wind surges. A mid-week cold front could bring the return of hazardous conditions over the area waters to close out the work week.

Beach Forecast .

Along the Atlantic beaches, the rip current risk should diminish as the weekend concludes. By early in the week, the easterly to southeasterly wind flow picks up and so will the elevated rip current risk. Another cold front will push across the region mid- week which will cause hazardous marine conditions to develop leading to the return of an elevated rip current threat to close out the work week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 83 71 82 67 / 20 20 60 70 Fort Lauderdale 83 74 82 70 / 20 20 50 60 Miami 83 73 83 69 / 20 20 50 60 Naples 85 69 82 65 / 0 10 50 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MDKF1 7 mi123 min 76°F
THRF1 9 mi123 min 76°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi63 min 76°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi123 min 75°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi63 min 76°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi123 min 76°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi123 min 75°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi123 min 75°F
JBYF1 16 mi63 min 75°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi63 min 75°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi63 min E 20 G 21 76°F 77°F1020.2 hPa (-0.6)
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi123 min 75°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi63 min 76°F
TBYF1 26 mi123 min 74°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi63 min 75°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi63 min 74°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi51 min E 12 G 16 76°F 76°F1019.8 hPa
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi63 min ENE 8.9 76°F
BKYF1 33 mi63 min 74°F
LRIF1 33 mi63 min 75°F
NRRF1 34 mi123 min 74°F
WWEF1 36 mi183 min 76°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi63 min 73°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi123 min 76°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi123 min 75°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi123 min 74°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi123 min 73°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi63 min 76°F
CWAF1 39 mi123 min 74°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi63 min 74°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi63 min 74°F
HREF1 43 mi63 min 73°F
SREF1 44 mi123 min 74°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi123 min 73°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi67 minE 810.00 miFair74°F67°F79%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW4NW5NW6N3NW3N4N6N5NE8NE10NE9E9E10NE7NE5CalmNE4E5NE5NE5E7E10E8
1 day agoCalmNW4CalmCalmSE5S4SW5SW9SW15
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W15W14W11W8W7----W6NW6NW5NW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:03 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:53 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:22 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:38 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.20.60.2-00.10.61.21.92.42.72.72.31.81.20.70.40.30.611.62.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:38 AM EST     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:02 AM EST     1.52 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:53 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:17 PM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.7-1.5-2.1-2.2-1.8-1.1-0.30.61.31.51.410.3-0.5-1.3-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.7-00.60.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.