Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Key Largo, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 8:02PM Sunday August 9, 2020 3:33 AM EDT (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 930 Pm Edt Sat Aug 8 2020
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday through Thursday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 930 Pm Edt Sat Aug 8 2020
Synopsis..High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the marine forecast period. Favorable marine conditions are likely through the remainder of the weekend into the start of the next workweek. That said, isolated to scattered convection may agitate seas just a bit along with producing brief heavy rainfall and lightning.
Gulf stream hazards..Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and Thunderstorms. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 06, 2020 at 1200 utc... 10 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles southeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 12 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Key Largo, FL
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location: 25.31, -80.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 082333 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 733 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Aviation. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Thunderstorms along the west coast will quickly diminsh as the evening progresses and winds will become light and variable across all terminals. Winds will then increase out of the southeast late Sunday morning to around 10 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by Sunday afternoon across the interior and west coast. Winds will shift around to the southwest at KAPF in the afternoon.

Update. Updated the current forecast based on current radar trends. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the west coast and the Gulf waters will diminsh as the evening progresses. There could be some shower development over the Atlantic waters during the overnight and early morning hours on Sunday. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region on Sunday and an east to southeasterly wind flow will continue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the east and west coast sea breezes as they move inland. The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be across the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will remain on the warm side as they will range from around 90 along the immediate east coast to the mid 90s across the interior sections. Heat indices could rise to 105 or higher during the afternoon hours across most locations along the interior and west coast.

Prev Discussion. /issued 301 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020/

Short Term . At the time of writing this discussion, showers and storms were just starting to develop along the sea breeze generally along or west of the Turnpike. This activity should continue to grow in terms of coverage and intensity as the afternoon continues. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the primary threat to southwest portions of the state.

Convection will begin to decrease across the land zones this evening. Expect a dry night otherwise across the region except perhaps a few isolated rogue showers over the Gulf or Atlantic waters. On Sunday, a bit of a small pattern shift takes place. A H5 ridge will begin to overspread the region . in fact heights will build to near 594+dam by late in the day across the region. This will limit rainfall potential a bit. Decided to drop POPs a good bit for Sunday with the best (albeit modest) rainfall potential residing across the Gulf coast areas. Otherwise, temperatures will be warmer as thicknesses increase as the ridge builds. With a bit of dry air able to mix down in the afternoon, no heat headlines anticipated at the moment.

Long Term .

Sunday Night through Tuesday .

A zonally elongated mid-level ridge will prevail from the western Atlantic Ocean through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will maintain surface high pressure across the area with light east to southeast winds. With no meaningful weather systems nearby, the sea breeze circulation patterns should be the primary drivers of showers and thunderstorms through the period. This should favor the greatest shower chances during the morning hours for the Atlantic waters and east coast, with this focus gradually shifting inland with the prevailing Atlantic breeze towards the interior and eventually Gulf coast by the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest coverage should generally be from the Lake region through the southern Everglades in the general vicinity of the colliding Atlantic and Gulf breezes. Despite the prevalent ridging, sufficient low-level forcing for ascent should exist via these boundaries for at least scattered coverage over the interior areas previously mentioned during the afternoon and evening hours. The blended guidance in general appears to be latching on to the flow pattern with warm afternoon temperatures (especially for western inland areas), but some upward adjustment of max temperatures may be necessary for this period in the days going forward. For now, didn't make any changes from the consensus guidance. Look for high temperatures well into the 90s away from the east coast with overnight lows generally in the 70s to around 80.

Wednesday through Saturday .

A trough over the eastern CONUS should shunt the low-mid level ridge center into the western Atlantic leaving South Florida on the southwest portion of the ridge periphery. This modest tightening of the pressure gradient should increase the low-level easterly flow a bit towards the later portion of the extended forecast period. A dry pocket advancing through the northern Caribbean Sea and Bahamas should reach our area on Thursday into Friday. This may slightly decrease thunderstorm coverage during this time, but not enough confidence yet to modify the statistically weighted and consensus blended PoPs utilized during this period. Thereafter some increase in moisture is possible later in the weekend along the northern edge of an easterly wave tracking through the Caribbean Sea. Generally seasonal temperatures are anticipated.

Marine . High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the marine forecast period. Favorable marine conditions are likely through the remainder of the weekend into the start of the next workweek. That said, isolated to scattered convection may agitate seas just a bit along with producing brief heavy rainfall and lightning.

Aviation (18z TAFs) . Like the last few days, convection has developed generally west of the Atlantic terminals with the best storm chances/coverage residing along the Gulf (APF). Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions with light to moderate easterly flow expected. Light and variable (and dry) conditions expected overnight.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 78 92 77 90 / 10 20 0 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 79 89 / 10 20 10 50 Miami 79 93 79 90 / 10 20 0 50 Naples 76 93 77 94 / 40 30 10 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 55/CWC Aviation . 55/CWC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MDKF1 7 mi94 min 92°F
MNBF1 9 mi94 min 91°F
THRF1 9 mi154 min 90°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 10 mi94 min 91°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 11 mi94 min 90°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 11 mi154 min 92°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 13 mi154 min 90°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 15 mi154 min 91°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 15 mi154 min 90°F
JBYF1 16 mi94 min 91°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 20 mi94 min 89°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 21 mi94 min 90°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi34 min E 11 G 12 85°F 86°F1019.7 hPa (-1.4)
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 21 mi94 min 91°F
TBYF1 26 mi94 min 91°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 29 mi94 min 89°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 30 mi94 min 89°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 30 mi94 min NE 7 91°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 30 mi46 min NE 6 G 8.9 85°F 90°F1020.2 hPa
BKYF1 33 mi94 min 89°F
LRIF1 33 mi94 min 89°F
NRRF1 34 mi94 min 87°F
WWEF1 36 mi154 min 88°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi94 min 86°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 37 mi154 min 90°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 37 mi94 min 89°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 37 mi154 min 86°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 38 mi94 min 86°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 38 mi94 min 89°F
CWAF1 39 mi154 min 87°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi94 min 86°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 41 mi94 min 84°F
HREF1 43 mi94 min 86°F
SREF1 44 mi94 min 87°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 45 mi64 min E 12 G 13 85°F 1018.9 hPa75°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 45 mi94 min 85°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL13 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair83°F77°F84%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHST

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmNW3N4E4NE7E6E8E8NE9E11E9NE6NE4NE4E4NE4NE6E4E4NE5Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NE3E8E7E8E9E9E6E8E8E7E3E4N5NE5NE4E5E5E4E4
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5SE5E6E9E8SE6SE6CalmSE5E3E3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean Reef Harbor, Key Largo, Florida
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Ocean Reef Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:05 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:14 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.32.11.71.20.80.40.30.40.71.21.622.22.11.91.510.70.50.50.81.21.6

Tide / Current Tables for Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current
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Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:51 PM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.1-0.6-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.7-0.10.50.90.90.70.3-0.2-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.30.20.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.