Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Homestead Base, FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

GFS/Euro and model ensembles remain consistent with keeping the region under the influence of a dominant high pressure system through the short term, centered around the Atlantic seaboard and expanding across the SE CONUS and into the Florida peninsula. 00Z MFL sounding show PWATs below 1 inch, along with a deep and robustly dry layer from 850mb and above. Models keep the Florida peninsula, and especially South Florida, in the southern periphery of the circulation of the high, which will keep generally E winds in place today.

Meanwhile, ensembles depict a rather complex weather pattern developing over the central plains with multiple low/frontal features. These features will push the high further SE, with the sfc ridge becoming more elongated. In response, pressure gradients increase across the area and resulting in periods of breezy/gusty winds along the Atlantic side. Wind gusts are expected in the 25-30 mph range, strongest right along the immediate coast.

With a strong mid level ridge remaining in place through the short term, along with the dry profile of the air mass and overall subsidence, no rain is expected during the weekend. Therefore, the dry and warm conditions will continue. Afternoon highs will remain in the low 80s near the Atlantic metro areas, and in the mid-upper 80s over interior and Gulf coast areas. Wouldn't be too surprising if a few locations over the Gulf side of South Florida were to hit the low 90s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Throughout the weekend, the forecast will continue to be heavily influenced by the strong Atlantic surface high, as well as the mid level ridging and high pressure. These atmospheric features will prevent much needed moisture with model guidance forecasting approximately 60-70% of normal precipitable water and afternoon dew points in the low 60s in South Florida. Therefore, even with the easterly breeze and warm temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry and stable throughout the weekend and into next week.
There will be a slow warming trend bringing high temperatures into the mid-to-upper 80s across a majority of the region, with a potential for abnormal near 90 across SW Florida by Sunday.
Overnight temperatures will be cool and comfortable, with outgoing longwave radiation and little sky coverage, allowing for lows to drop into the 60s, except low 70s along the east coast. With very dry air and very dry fuels regionwide, winds and RH values will be watched carefully as the conditions will be prime for ignition and rapid burns.

As we move into early to mid next week, the west Atlantic high will maintain a stronghold of our weather with dry and stable conditions continuing. Pressure gradients tighten which will lead to potential for windy conditions across the east coast metro and Atlantic waters. There will not be a sufficient increase in the moisture levels with the air mass still projected to be too dry for precipitation. Temperatures will continue to reach the mid 80s to low 90s in the afternoon for a majority of the region - slightly cooler in the east coast metro. Low temperatures will drop into the 60s, except for low 70s across the east coast.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Throughout the weekend, the forecast will continue to be heavily influenced by the strong Atlantic surface high, as well as the mid level ridging and high pressure. These atmospheric features will prevent much needed moisture with model guidance forecasting approximately 60-70% of normal precipitable water and afternoon dew points in the low 60s in South Florida. Therefore, even with the easterly breeze and warm temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry and stable throughout the weekend and into next week.
There will be a slow warming trend bringing high temperatures into the mid-to-upper 80s across a majority of the region, with a potential for abnormal near 90 across SW Florida by Sunday.
Overnight temperatures will be cool and comfortable, with outgoing longwave radiation and little sky coverage, allowing for lows to drop into the 60s, except low 70s along the east coast. With very dry air and very dry fuels regionwide, winds and RH values will be watched carefully as the conditions will be prime for ignition and rapid burns.

As we move into early to mid next week, the west Atlantic high will maintain a stronghold of our weather with dry and stable conditions continuing. Pressure gradients tighten which will lead to potential for windy conditions across the east coast metro and Atlantic waters. There will not be a sufficient increase in the moisture levels with the air mass still projected to be too dry for precipitation. Temperatures will continue to reach the mid 80s to low 90s in the afternoon for a majority of the region - slightly cooler in the east coast metro. Low temperatures will drop into the 60s, except for low 70s across the east coast.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. There will likely be a few periods of BKN040-050 from clouds moving off the Atlantic, but little to no precipitation expected. Winds 090-100 degrees at 12-15 knots through 14z, then increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts at or above 25 knots after 14z.

MARINE
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Increasingly breezy easterly flow continues this afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued through Sunday morning for Atlantic waters, and starting early Saturday morning for some southern marine waters on the Gulf side. Conditions may remain hazardous for small craft through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.

The seas are expected to gradually increase and reach the 4-6 feet range by this afternoon, and last through Saturday morning. Can't rule out occasional 7 ft seas, mainly over the southern-most

BEACHES
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Breezy easterly winds will bring a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches today and through at least Sunday. Elevated surf will also affect portions of the Atlantic beaches with surf heights in the 4-5 feet range later today and through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 73 81 73 83 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 69 84 68 85 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 71 84 70 84 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 72 82 71 83 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 80 72 81 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 81 72 82 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 72 85 72 86 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 70 81 70 83 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 71 82 71 83 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 66 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ657.