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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 400 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Monday night...
Today..S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt after midnight. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Mon night..N ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..E ne winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
breezy southerly to southwesterly winds 15 to 20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the atlantic generally 3 to 5 ft today, and 2 ft or less in the gulf. A few showers and storms could develop over the local waters this evening with the passage of the front.
winds will veer from the north northeast late tonight into Monday morning as the front clear our area, gradually increasing up to 20 to 25 kts by midweek. Seas will also gradually build up to 6 to 8 across all local waters by mid-week, resulting in hazardous boating conditions.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 6 to 9 feet by Tuesday. Seas could exceed 10 feet later this week.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 12 utc...
18 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 100730 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 230 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Conditions start becoming unsettled today as a strong mid level trough progresses across the eastern US, pushing a cold front across the SE US and the Florida peninsula. Ahead of the front, SSE winds will become breezy and gusty, with cloud cover gradually increasing across much of the area into the afternoon. PWATs are forecast to gradually increase up to the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range as the front nears our area, which will support enhanced convection overthe coastal waters first, and then spreading over land. Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60 percent chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late Sunday evening and through the night. Can’t rule out a few stronger cells with gusty to damaging winds and frequent lightning, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front will clear our area by early Monday morning and an area of high pressure will start to build in from the SE US. This should usher a brief period of dry, quiet weather as cooler, drier air advects over our area. It will also help keep daytime temps on Monday in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the mid 50s (over the interior) and mid 60s (along the East Coast). Winds behind the front will remain breezy, with northerly to northeasterly winds 15-20 kts.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Long range solutions keep the decaying boundary lingering near the Florida Keys for much of the extended period, supporting enhanced pressure gradients across the southern half of the peninsula. Therefore, expect periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon hours across much of South FL. By late Wednesday and through the end of the week, models suggest another surge of moisture as the decaying boundary retrogrades across the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning front, with POPs jumping back into the 50, 60, or even 70 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Latest ensemble members show possible PWATs of up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and potential for isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. But since it is too early to embrace any particular solution, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Generally VFR through much of the period though some showers linger around PBI. As the front approaches later today, shower and thunderstorm chances increase with the potential for bouts of sub-VFR at terminals directly impacted by convection. Short-fused AMDs for sub-MVFR cigs/vsbys may be needed. The front should pass APF late in the TAF period and pass the east coast terminals in the extended TAF period; exact timing is still uncertain.

MARINE
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds at 15-20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and overnight as the front pushes through.

Winds and seas will increase behind the front starting tonight and persisting through the end of the week, resulting in hazardous marine conditions across all local waters. Winds are forecast to increase up to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30-35 kts by the middle of the week, while seas could build up to 6-11 feet across the Atlantic waters. With this in mind, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Gulf Waters starting 10PM tonight through at least Monday evening. For the local Atlantic waters, a Small Craft Advisory will also go into effect at 4AM tomorrow morning lasting through at least Tuesday evening.

BEACHES
Issued at 226 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

The risk of rip currents along Atlantic beaches will remain elevated into next week thanks to onshore flow. A Rip Current Statement remains in effect through this evening. Behind the cold front, the rip current threat will also increase along the Gulf beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 83 66 75 65 / 20 40 10 10 West Kendall 84 63 75 61 / 20 40 10 10 Opa-Locka 84 65 75 64 / 20 40 10 10 Homestead 83 65 76 64 / 20 40 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 65 74 66 / 20 50 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 64 74 65 / 20 40 10 10 Pembroke Pines 84 64 74 63 / 20 40 10 10 West Palm Beach 83 62 72 64 / 20 40 10 10 Boca Raton 83 64 74 65 / 20 50 10 10 Naples 82 59 71 54 / 20 30 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:01 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Turkey Point, Biscayne Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Caesar Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:19 AM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:25 AM EST     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:13 PM EST     0.86 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:17 PM EST     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current, knots

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