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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 1000 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Rest of today..E se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..E se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sun..S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt after midnight. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms late in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Mon night..N ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Tue night..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers late in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
moderate to fresh easterly to southeasterly winds are expected through today before becoming more southerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the atlantic generally 3 to 5 ft through Sunday, and 2 ft or less in the gulf.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 4 to 6 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 12 utc...
18 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 091126 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 626 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

The airmass over South Florida will continue to moisten as we remain on the periphery of Atlantic surface high pressure which will permit the southeasterly to southerly wind flow this weekend. Aloft, a mid- level low crossing the upper midwest and an amplifying mid-level longwave trough moving into the eastern third of the country will propel a cold front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the area on Sunday.

Convection today should remain mostly showers with a focus along a boundary located over the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County. As this warm front retreats northward heading into Sunday, rain chances will generally diminish until diurnal heating peaks on Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Some thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out, mainly focused over the waters. Localized heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out, particularly along the east coast metro where coastal influences could contribute.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Conditions will deteriorate further with the passage of the cold front Sunday night into early Monday morning. Enhanced moisture ahead of this front will allow for convection to develop across the East Coast and local Atlantic waters overnight, with 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some of those storms could be strong in character, with gusty winds and frequent lightning possible. Conditions briefly improve on Monday as the front clear our area and high pressure builds over the SE US. Cooler, drier air will advect over the region behind the front, keeping daytime temps on Monday in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the mid 50s (over the interior) and mid 60s (along the East Coast).

The aforementioned front will likely stall out over the Florida Straits for much of the extended period, keeping a strong pressure gradient over South Florida through the end of the week. This should promote persisting breezy northeasterly winds across much of the area with gusts 20-30kts possible.

As we head towards the end of the extended period (Wed-Fri), some of the models suggest a return to unsettled weather as the aforementioned lingering front meanders northward towards our area.
Several ensembles show PWATs reaching 2", with a few members hinting at QPF values between 2-4" along the East Coast during this timeframe. Uncertainty regarding this solution remains high, with some discrepancy regarding the strength of the area of high pressure over the SE US and thus how close the meandering front can come. As such, the current forecast shows gradually increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms with conservative QPF estimates along the East Coast.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR through the period with an easterly to southeasterly flow.
Some isolated showers are possible, mainly near the Atlantic waters. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for bouts of sub-VFR with convection.

MARINE
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds today will become more southerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Showers and some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the period, particularly over the local waters. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front could allow hazardous marine conditions to develop by Monday and linger through much of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A high risk of rip currents will persist through at least the weekend along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida thanks to a southeasterly wind flow. Accordingly, the Rip Current Statement for the Atlantic beaches has been extended through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 72 82 67 / 10 10 30 40 West Kendall 82 68 83 65 / 10 10 30 40 Opa-Locka 82 71 83 67 / 10 10 30 40 Homestead 81 71 82 67 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 72 82 67 / 10 10 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 72 82 66 / 10 10 30 50 Pembroke Pines 82 70 83 66 / 10 10 30 40 West Palm Beach 80 69 82 64 / 20 20 30 50 Boca Raton 81 72 83 64 / 10 10 30 50 Naples 82 66 81 61 / 10 10 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Boca Chita Key
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Sat -- 12:37 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:07 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:41 PM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Chita Key, Biscayne Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Caesar Creek
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Sat -- 01:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 AM EST     1.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:41 AM EST     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:38 PM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:37 PM EST     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Caesar Creek, Biscayne Bay, Florida Current, knots

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