Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Presidio, TX

UPDATE
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the Permian Basin south to the Stockton Plateau until 11 PM CDT. The main threats are very large hail and damaging winds.

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent across west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon in advance of an upper level trough over the western CONUS. At the surface, a dryline extends from the western Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos and Big Bend region, where dewpoints range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s. CAPE values generally range between 1500-2500 J/KG along and east of the surface dryline this afternoon, with steep mid level lapse rates between 8.5-9 C/km. Visible satellite imagery is starting to show the first signs of convective initiation in the Davis Mountains and adjacent Stockton Plateau/Upper Trans Pecos region as of 230 PM CDT. Shortwave impulses embedded within the W-SW flow aloft will translate over our forecast area this afternoon and evening and will provide ascent for continued development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Trans Pecos and into the Permian Basin through the afternoon/evening. Favorable instability and deep layer shear will be supportive of supercells with the primary hazards of concern being large hail (potentially golfball size or larger) and damaging gusts in excess of 70 mph. A tornado cannot be entirely ruled out if a storm becomes latched onto a boundary.
The severe weather threat will peak late this afternoon into early this evening before storms gradually decrease in coverage by late this evening.

A repeat scenario looks to be on tap for Wednesday, with a similar pattern (perturbations within W-SW and convergence along the dryline) contributing to additional scattered convection from the southwest mountains/Big Bend/Trans Pecos to the Permian Basin.
Storms will have the potential to become severe again with large hail and damaging winds once again being the primary threats. Lows tonight mostly range in the 50s and 60s with highs on Wednesday topping out in the 80s over most areas, except 90s along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A persistent stormy pattern holds into Thursday, at least for the Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau and Terrell County. Long wave troughing from the Great Basin into northern Mexico will impart up to 45 knots of shear, while WPC Surface Analysis shows a dryline sharpening over Eddy County Plains into Davis Mountains and Big Bend, providing forcing for ascent each day. Short wave and vorticity perturbations in the southwest flow aloft coupled with diurnal heating of elevated terrain, as well as enhancement in moisture advection and low-level shear from a LLJ again developing in the evening - will be favorable to initiation of storms. With CAPE remaining above 1000 J/kg and rising up to 2500 J/kg in forecast soundings, lapse rates of 7-9 C/km, and dew point temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s over Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau and Terrell County, there will be enough moisture and instability for strong to severe storms east of the dryline that are capable of generating large hail and damaging winds. SPC has most of the area east of the dryline outlooked in a MRGL risk and this may be upgraded in later outlooks. 40% to 50% PoPs persist will cover this same risk area, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above average in the upper 80s to lower 90s under sunnier skies west of the dryline, and highs up to 5 degrees above average under cloudier skies limiting diurnal heating east of the dryline. Lows fall into the 60s, 50s western higher terrain into SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin, as moisture and clouds limit radiational cooling and keep the diurnal range down to 20 degrees. Subsidence in the wake of the perturbations decreases PoPs Friday, but PoPs again expand westward as more perturbations ripple through the flow, with highest PoPs 40% to 50% over northern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains on Saturday, before decreasing back down to the 20% to 30% range over eastern parts of the area by Sunday. Geopotential heights less than 582 decameters northwest of Davis Mountains and between 582 and 588 decameters elsewhere along with 1000-500 mb thicknesses between 570 and 576 decameters from late week through this weekend keep temperatures relatively consistent each day, 80s to 90s with coolest temperatures over the northeast Permian Basin in the lower 80s, higher elevations west of the dryline in the lower to mid 80s, and warmest temperatures in the 90s over the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande basins. An exception will be the northeast Permian Basin where highs may not reach the 80s under cloudier skies and another relative maximum in PoPs Saturday. As on Friday, warmer temperatures with subsidence in the wake of the disturbances aloft are again forecast Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s and lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Sunday might end up being the warmest day in the long term as a result of gusty downsloping winds developing during the day. However, as troughing deepens over the Great Basin and decreases heights and thicknesses by early next week, a cooling trend and increase in rain chances is expected.

NBM rain totals show only a few tenths of an inch accumulation from late this week into early next week over the northeast and southeast Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau and Terrell County. Given tendency of NBM to overperform for rain totals a few days in advance of a rain event, there remains uncertainty about how much rain will fall. The more rain that falls over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, the cooler we can expect temperatures in those regions to be during the day and therefore the lower the diurnal range. Less rain than currently indicated may keep temperatures even over cloudier eastern parts of the area at the higher end during the day, while increasing the diurnal range. There are no indications of a significant wind shift in forecast grids through the extended, with southwesterly winds west of the dryline and southerly/southeasterly winds east of the dryline. Therefore, position and strength of the dryline, storm interactions/mergers, extent and location of prior wetting rains, amount of differential heating of elevated terrain and clearer sky versus cloudier regions, as well as timing, strength, and location of disturbances aloft look to be the main factors impacting temperature and precipitation for the foreseeable future. NBM grids are also indicating the dryline developing farther east early next week, so highest rain chances may end up east of the area compared to so far this week if this pans out.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening for all TAF sites. Thunderstorms have already progressed through FST and have remained west of MAF. No other development is currently expected, but can't be completely ruled out. Southeast winds continue at all TAF sites through the period. MVFR ceilings are expected to move northwest into all but CNM by morning before lifting by early afternoon for all sites. Beyond this, afternoon thunderstorms may again be possible at MAF and FST, but confidence is far too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 60 81 62 82 / 40 20 30 40 Carlsbad 57 89 56 89 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 64 82 64 86 / 20 20 30 40 Fort Stockton 62 85 64 88 / 20 20 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 55 81 57 80 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 56 83 59 85 / 20 10 20 20 Marfa 53 83 53 85 / 0 20 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 61 83 63 84 / 30 10 30 30 Odessa 61 82 64 84 / 30 10 30 30 Wink 61 87 63 89 / 20 10 10 20

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.