Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Presidio, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

An active weather pattern persists as we begin the work week. An upper-level trough is currently centered near the Great Basin region. Through the course of the day, it continues to meander closer to our region. At the surface, a cold front is approaching from the northwest. The surface pressure gradient associated with this front will coincide with the upper-level trough's jet max hovering over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, resulting in breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon. The strongest winds are expected over the mountains and southeastern New Mexico. However, winds look to stay just below warning criteria at the moment.
Late this afternoon and into the evening, the dryline is expected to set up near the TX/NM border and extend south toward the Big Bend. Warm and dry conditions, breezy winds, and low relative humidity result in a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement over much of southeastern New Mexico into the Big Bend. Ample moisture/instability ahead of the dryline and lift provided by the approaching front may help kick up some storms during this timeframe. Coverage looks relatively isolated, with PoPs ranging from 10%-40%, best chances being over the northeastern Permian Basin. This is also where the best chances for strong to severe storm development lies. Should a storm become severe, the main threats will be large to very large hail and damaging winds, though the possibility of a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Highs today top out in the 80s across much of southeastern New Mexico and the higher elevations, the 90s in the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos, and the century mark along the Rio Grande. Tonight's lows depend on the exact location of the cold front, as it becomes stationary, with 50s behind the front and 60s ahead.

Tuesday, another cold front approaches from the north, eventually stalling out somewhere near the Texas Panhandle during the afternoon. The dryline looks to extend from the central Permian Basin down into the Lower Trans Pecos. Strong to severe storm development is again on the table in the vicinity of these boundaries. 10%-50% PoPs are in the forecast, with the highest rain/storm chances over the northeastern Permian Basin, where there will be better moisture and lift near the stationary front.
Similar to Monday, the main threats with any severe storms that develop will be large to very large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for a tornado or two. Highs Tuesday will primarily be in the 80s, though 90s will be more common near the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The active weather pattern continues into the long term period. An upper trough over the western U.S. kicks out east Tuesday into Wednesday increasing rain chances in the Permian Basin. The trough will be the upper trigger with a weak surface front and dryline providing the surface focus for convection. The highest rain chances will be in the northern Permian Basin near the stationary front and the eastern Permian Basin along the dryline. There is uncertainty in the exact location of both these features so it is best not to focus on exact rain probabilities but instead the general area. Instability and shear will be enough to keep severe thunderstorms a threat which is normal for this time of year.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the middle of the week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s, except along the Rio Grande.

A second upper trough moves into the north central Great Plains sending a cold front south into the CWA on Friday. This may be our best chance for widespread rainfall in the next seven days, and with cooler air settling in behind the front CAPE may be limited as well as the severe threat. It would be nice to get some rainfall without the worry of too much severe weather.
Temperatures fall back below normal as highs struggle to make it out of the 70s to end the week. Can't complain about that to start the month of May, especially when we were pushing 100 degrees just a couple of weeks ago.

Hennig

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day. Winds become breezy out of the southwest, with the strongest winds expected at CNM and HOB this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for much of the area west of the Pecos River this afternoon. The relative humidity will be very low today but winds will be marginal so widespread critical conditions are not expected. Poor to fair humidity is expected tonight then tomorrow will be similar to today in the same area and will have to be monitored for another statement.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 92 64 86 60 / 20 30 40 70 Carlsbad 90 56 87 53 / 0 0 10 20 Dryden 93 64 88 63 / 20 30 20 40 Fort Stockton 95 65 90 60 / 20 20 30 40 Guadalupe Pass 81 56 79 52 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 88 56 86 52 / 0 10 10 40 Marfa 87 55 85 52 / 10 20 10 30 Midland Intl Airport 92 63 86 60 / 10 30 20 50 Odessa 91 63 86 60 / 10 30 20 50 Wink 94 62 90 57 / 10 20 10 40

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.