Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 8:28 AM   Moonset 10:58 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 1248 Am Pdt Sat May 11 2024
Today - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds. Sun - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less in S swell. Period 17 seconds. Sun night - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming S to sw 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Mon - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Mon night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 12 seconds. Tue - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 12 seconds. Tue night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 12 seconds. Wed - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 12 seconds. Wed night - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 11 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 110814 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 314 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Each successive model run keeps pulling back on rainfall amounts for today and tonight. Current radar certainly doesn't disagree showing absolutely nothing as of early this morning. Hi-res models indicate low level moisture advection over the cool post frontal airmass will receive additional lift today with the approach of an upper disturbance, but instability is not terribly high and the scattered nature of the showers may prevent widespread decent rainfall for many. However we are still expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop in southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin late this morning and early afternoon even though coverage may not be as dense as we might hope for. CAPE values max out at around 1500J/Kg which is enough to create a severe weather threat though convective inhibition will be enough to prevent a significant severe threat and SPC's marginal risk seems about right. Storms may congeal into a mini MCS in the northeastern Permian Basin later tonight and locations east of Midland will have a better chance at widespread decent rainfall amounts. The farther west you go the luckier you will have to be to see rain. Drier air moving in from the west will keep all rain in the eastern Permian Basin on Sunday.

Abundant cloud cover will keep a low diurnal temperature range today even if we get little rainfall. Those areas that get rain will of course be cooler, but still highs in the 60s and 70s will be nice for the middle of May. Continuing clouds keep temps from dropping much tonight, then clearing skies tomorrow from westerly winds help send temps back to near normal as highs once again are in the 80s and 90s. You can't keep the heat away long around here this time of year.

Hennig

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Rain chances reach back towards zero Sunday night and into Monday morning as the upper low that will have brought rain this weekend moves further to the east. Weak high pressure moves in behind the low and clears skies for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures rebound into the 80s to low 90s for most. Lows each morning settle into the 50s for the higher elevations and areas north of I-10 and in the 60s for areas to the south. The next upper low draws near during the middle and looks to aid in the development of showers and storms. Guidance continues to allude to a dryline sharpening up over the central portion of the CWA A cold front moves through on Thursday and briefly brings temperatures back below average before Friday and Saturday see afternoon highs rise again.

-Stickney

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to drop to MVFR 12-15Z as SHRA increases in coverage. There will be TS in the area but confidence in timing is low and have left out of the TAFs for now. Some sites will drop to IFR near 00Z despite rain ending and lingering moisture may allow for light BR to form.

Hennig

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 70 60 86 57 / 80 50 50 10 Carlsbad 75 59 87 56 / 40 30 0 0 Dryden 80 66 95 65 / 40 40 10 10 Fort Stockton 78 64 93 61 / 60 40 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 73 56 78 56 / 50 20 0 0 Hobbs 68 57 86 54 / 60 40 10 0 Marfa 84 52 85 49 / 50 40 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 61 88 58 / 70 40 20 0 Odessa 68 62 89 59 / 70 40 10 0 Wink 75 62 91 58 / 60 30 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

Topolobampo
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:32 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:12 AM MST     -0.21 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 08:28 AM MST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:22 PM MST     0.60 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:51 PM MST     0.59 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 PM MST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM MST     1.14 meters High Tide
Sat -- 10:58 PM MST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:32 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:02 AM MST     -0.19 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 08:26 AM MST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:25 PM MST     0.67 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:01 PM MST     0.67 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:56 PM MST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM MST     1.16 meters High Tide
Sat -- 11:03 PM MST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,