Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Miami, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:52PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:47 PM EDT (17:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 9:34AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 1048 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Today..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms
chance of showers in the afternoon
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers
slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers.
Sunday..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1048 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis.. Marine conditions are forecast to be mostly benign through the remainder of the work week. An approaching cold front is forecast to slow and stall over the area, keeping the mention of showers and Thunderstorms in the forecast for the next several days. A low pressure system over the gulf of mexico is forecast to approach the florida panhandle and gulf states this weekend, increasing seas and winds across the gulf of mexico as early as Friday night while the atlantic waters are not forecast to see any significant increase in seas through the beginning of next week. A west to southwest swell of enters the gulf waters Saturday and sticks around through the beginning of Sunday. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected for all waters through the remainder of the forecast period.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 17, 2019 at 1200 utc... 3 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 5 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 3 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miami city, FL
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location: 25.78, -80.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 171728
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
128 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Aviation
Early afternoon radar data shows clusters of showers developing
over central areas of soflo and moving east towards the vicinity
of the atlantic terminals. With the presence of a decaying frontal
boundary across central florida, expect at least vcsh through this
evening, along with vcts late this afternoon for the atlantic
terminals. Some periods of patchy fog may develop again around apf
during the overnight hours which could bring vis down to MVFR at
times.

Prev discussion issued 1018 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
update...

latest model sounding analysis suggest a little favorable
conditions for strong thunderstorm activity at the mid-upper
levels with increasing wind speed & directional shear, SRH of
around 13-14 and local MAX around 40kt, in addition, 12z mfl
sounding shows increasing pwats to 1.8 inches. However, it is the
cell-genesis processes the hindering factor today, as once again
it will be the sea-breeze boundaries the focal point for
potential convection. Meso models don't show definite agreement in
having a particularly strong sea breeze development today, but it
won't take much for an individual cell to reach the more
favorable mid level dynamic support. So in other words, conditions
are not favorable for low-level convection development, but if a
storm does forms, it will then have a good chance of intensifying
and reaching strong or even severe status. Pops wx grids have been
updated to show better chances over the eastern half of the cwa
this afternoon. Rest of the forecast remains as is.

Prev discussion... Issued 758 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
aviation...

a few showers are reaching the vicinity of apf during the mid
morning hours, whileVFR prevail at all terminals. Periods of
brief fog brought down visibilities to around 5-6sm during the
overnight hours, but any fog that formed has now lifted.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase today with MVFR
periods possible with passing showers and storms, especially over
the atlantic terminals this afternoon.

Prev discussion... Issued 320 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
short term...

today through Friday night...

an area of low pressure moving across new england is pushing its
associated trailing cold front down the atlantic off the eastern
seaboard of the united states before curving back across florida
into the gulf of mexico. Another broad area of low pressure is
present over the bay of campeche and is being monitored by the
national hurricane center which has a 70 percent chance of
formation for this disturbance in the next 48 hours in the latest
tropical weather outlook (twoat).

Closer to home, the presence of the frontal boundary draped across
the lake okeechobee region is already allowing for some convection
to fire early this morning. An increasing trend in convective
activity and coverage is expected today with the return of
thunderstorms to the forecast. The highest chances of thunderstorms
today will be around the lake where the frontal boundary will linger
through a good portion of the next day and along the eastern half of
the peninsula where the southwesterly to westerly flow could pin any
atlantic sea breeze that develops. Warm temperatures are still
expected with most of the area reaching into the upper 80s to lower
90s for high temperatures today, which could support sea breeze
development.

As the Sun sets tonight, convective activity will still linger as
the boundary meanders over south central florida and the lake
okeechobee region. Healthy amounts of surface moisture and a slight
decrease in wind flow and cloud cover overnight could produce an
environment capable of efficient radiational cooling which could
lead to fog forming overnight into early Friday morning over a good
portion of southern florida. As the Sun rises on Friday morning, the
fog should diminish and attention returns again to diurnally driven
convection and warm temperatures.

The progress of the disturbance in the gulf is a key variable in the
forecast, but the general trend will be for this feature to progress
northward and possibly northeastward into the gulf of mexico. With
the low potentially developing, the frontal boundary will retreat
northward as a warm front and allow the region to be encompassed in
the warm sector fully again. The track of the low will be crucial as
a more southerly or easterly track could bring additional dynamical
support for stronger convection. As it stands now, the storms will
be capable of producing gusty winds, dangerous lightning, locally
heavy rainfall, and you can never rule out funnel clouds or
waterspouts with isolated cells that interact with boundaries or are
able to tap into enhanced wind shear provided around a developing
low pressure system to the west.

Long term...

Saturday through Thursday...

yet another day where the global models disagree on the timing and
positioning of an energetic low pressure system within the
central gulf of mexico, and thus, a low confidence period is in
the forecast due to the amount of uncertainty involved. The good
news is that they are slowly honing in on a potential location,
though this is the first model run to do so. Ultimately, this low
pressure system is forecast to move northeastward within the
gulf. Regardless of location, this low looks to interact with the
aforementioned cold front, turned stationary, that pestered the
region Thursday and lifting it north northeastward across the
region Saturday through Sunday. Additionally, the leading flank of
the low pressure system is forecast to be showers with a few
thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall and potential localized
flooding, and hazardous marine conditions. With forecast srh
values over 200 m2 s2 in portions of the CWA Saturday morning,
wouldn't be surprised for funnel clouds to form. Will have to
closely monitor as the week progresses. Will take the middle of
the road route by staying on the cautious side with pops at this
early stage until the timing, strength, and position of the
feature becomes more confident.

In concerns to the global models, the GFS takes the low toward
the florida panhandle Friday night into early Saturday morning
while the ECMWF weakens the low. However, ECMWF is slowly agreeing
with GFS on location with the 00z model run having the low
pressure system impacting the florida panhandle as well, though
timing is Saturday afternoon time frame. Monday looks to be the
driest day out of the extended forecast, though will keep
scattered rain chances across the region due to continued
uncertainty of the placement and evolution of surface features
after the low pressure swings through the vicinity. By mid-week, a
cold front tries to cut through the state and creeps towards
south florida. Because of this, pops will be on the rise once
more.

Marine...

marine conditions are forecast to be mostly benign through the
remainder of the work week. An approaching cold front is forecast
to slow and stall over the area, keeping the mention of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for the next several days. A low
pressure system over the gulf of mexico is forecast to approach
the florida panhandle and gulf states this weekend, increasing
seas and winds across the gulf of mexico as early as Friday night.

Seas are forecast to build to around 6 to 10 feet in the outer
gulf waters with 2 to 5 feet possible in the inner gulf waters this
weekend while the atlantic waters are not forecast to see any
significant increase in seas through the beginning of next week.

A west to southwest swell of 1 to 3 feet enters the gulf waters
Saturday and sticks around through the beginning of Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected for all waters through the
remainder of the forecast period.

With this in mind, the gulf waters will likely see small craft
advisory conditions this weekend for winds and waves whereas the
atlantic waters look to have small craft exercise caution
conditions.

Aviation...

some convection could reach apf overnight which could lower cigs
and vsby belowVFR. Overnight early morning fog is a concern both
tonight and again Thursday night Friday morning. Increasing shower
and thunderstorm activity today will also create a risk of sub-vfr
conditions, particularly around the east coast terminals this
afternoon. Apf could see impacts earlier in the day as activity
develops over or just inland of the gulf and pushes inland.

Beach forecast...

slight chance for rip currents across both the gulf and atlantic
beaches today due to light southwesterly to westerly winds. The
rip current risk looks to increase this weekend for the gulf coast
beaches as a low pressure system over the gulf of mexico
approaches the florida panhandle and gulf states along with
southwest flow increasing. The atlantic beaches should stay in a
slight risk for rip currents this weekend.

Climate...

near record high minimum temperatures are forecast to either break
or tie records starting this morning through the beginning of next
week. Increasing cloud coverage during the morning hours will
certainly aid in this. Forecast minimum temperatures and records
for the next three days below...

location date forecast hi-min record
naples 17 oct 76 77 in 2018
west palm beach 17 oct 74 80 in 2018
fort lauderdale 17 oct 76 80 in 2018
miami 17 oct 76 79 in 2016
naples 18 oct 74 76 in 1968
west palm beach 18 oct 74 79 in 1998
fort lauderdale 18 oct 77 80 in 2018
miami 18 oct 75 79 in 1928
naples 19 oct 75 78 in 1968
west palm beach 19 oct 76 80 in 2018
fort lauderdale 19 oct 78 79 in 2013
miami 19 oct 77 79 in 1970

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 88 75 86 77 50 40 50 40
fort lauderdale 88 77 87 79 50 40 50 30
miami 89 76 88 77 40 30 40 30
naples 88 75 88 76 30 30 40 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 4 mi54 min S 5.1 G 6 85°F 85°F1013.1 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 14 mi48 min S 6 G 7 86°F 84°F1013.7 hPa (-1.3)
PEGF1 22 mi54 min 87°F 1013.2 hPa
MDKF1 36 mi108 min 85°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 39 mi108 min 88°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 40 mi108 min 85°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 41 mi168 min 84°F
THRF1 41 mi168 min 83°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 43 mi168 min 84°F
JBYF1 43 mi108 min 85°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 44 mi168 min 83°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 44 mi168 min 84°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 46 mi108 min 88°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 47 mi108 min 83°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 47 mi108 min 83°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 47 mi108 min 85°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 48 mi108 min 86°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 48 mi168 min 83°F
NRRF1 49 mi108 min 84°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL6 mi55 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F71°F55%1013.2 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL10 mi55 minW 510.00 miFair87°F75°F67%1013.5 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL15 mi55 minWSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F73°F63%1013.5 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL16 mi55 minWSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds90°F75°F62%1013.1 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL20 mi55 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F63%1012.8 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL23 mi1.9 hrsS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F74°F67%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMIA

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSE10E10E12E12E12E10E10E9E11E9E8E5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3E6SE5SE7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Miami, Marina, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Thu -- 12:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:37 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:06 PM EDT     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:24 PM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.8-1.5-1.6-1.3-1-0.40.61.72.121.61-0.1-1.1-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.7011.71.71.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.