Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Miami, FL

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Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:15PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 12:23 PM EDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:03PMMoonset 6:11AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 939 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday and Saturday night..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 939 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis..High pressure over the western atlantic will keep east to southeast winds across the local waters through the upcoming weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms will be most numerous over the gulf of mexico waters during the afternoon and evening hours, and over the atlantic waters during the nights and mornings, with gusty winds and locally rough seas.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 16, 2019 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 10 nautical miles east of port everglades. 8 nautical miles east of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miami city, FL
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location: 25.78, -80.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 171409
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1009 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Update
The summertime pattern that we have seen the past few days will
continue across south florida today. Some showers have been moving
onshore from the atlantic waters this morning across the east
coast metro and moving westward before dissipating. The morning
12z mfl sounding shows a little bit of drier air across the region
with pwats coming in at 1.6 inches. Afternoon heating will lead to
increased CAPE around 3500-3800 j kg. Thunderstorms will develop
over the interior and west coast this afternoon. Primary hazards
will be frequent lightning, heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds.

No major changes to the current forecast for today.

Prev discussion issued 724 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
aviation...

mostly dry andVFR conditions for the east coast terminals today.

A few spotty showers from the atlantic may move over the east
coast sites this morning but coverage is too low to include in
taf. Southeasterly flow will prevail throughout the period. For
kapf, southeasterly winds this morning will become SW as gulf sea
breeze develops, showers and thunderstorms possible over western
interior and gulf coast this afternoon. Therefore, included vcts
around 19z.

Prev discussion... Issued 354 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
discussion...

short term (today through Friday): the local weather pattern
continues to be dominated by subtropical high pressure at all
levels, most notably at the mid-levels where a 5950 meter center at
500 mb currently over north florida remains in place through today
and a low level ridge axis across central florida keeping an E se
wind flow in place. Relatively minor, but notable, day-to-day
differences in precipitation coverage location will depend largely
on embedded small-scale features in the prevailing E SE flow which
are discussed below.

Today: slightly drier air seen in last evening's 00z sounding from
nassau, as well as in GOES total precipitable water (tpw) data, will
move over south florida and lead to only isolated, small showers
early this morning. Some increase in showers (and possibly a
thunderstorm) is expected shortly after sunrise especially in the
palm beaches where deeper moisture resides. As has been the case the
past few days, showers and thunderstorms will then develop during
the late morning midday hours and increase in coverage from inland
palm beach county and the lake okeechobee area westward to collier
county and the gulf coast as the afternoon progresses and the gulf
seabreeze pushes inland and further focuses convective development.

Strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall can
be expected with the most vigorous convection over the western half
of south florida this afternoon into the early evening hours.

Higher 1000-850 mb thicknesses over the interior and western areas
today will translate to another day with highs in the mid 90s over
the interior and even close to the gulf coast, possibly reaching the
upper 90s in a few spots in eastern collier county. East coast metro
areas should hit the lower 90s except near 90 at the beaches. Heat
index values will have to be watched closely over the interior,
especially eastern collier county, where they could flirt with
advisory levels (108f for at least 2 hours).

Tonight and Thursday: a small mid-level trough currently north of
the western bahamas will move over south florida late tonight and
early Thursday, enhancing coverage of showers and thunderstorms over
the east coast metro areas and possibly cause this afternoon's
interior gulf coast convection to linger well into the night. As the
trough moves west across the peninsula on Thursday, convection
should be further enhanced over the interior and gulf coast Thursday
afternoon and evening. Once again, strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and torrential rainfall can be expected with the most
vigorous convection over the western half of south florida. Little
change in temperatures, with lows ranging from the mid 70s interior
to lower 80s east coast, and highs up in the 90s all areas. Heat
index values will once again approach advisory levels over the
everglades and big cypress preserve.

Thursday night and Friday: the center of the 500 mb high shifts to
the eastern u.S. And western atlantic. Drier air is depicted by the
gfs to move over the region late Thursday night and Friday, however
this could be countered by the influence of the northern end of a
weak tropical wave currently near puerto rico which may come close
enough to south florida on Friday. The end result is expected to be
a slight decrease in the coverage of showers thunderstorms favoring
the east coast in the night, morning and midday time frames and
interior gulf coast in the afternoon, but not appreciably so. Little
change in temperatures from today and Thursday.

Long term (this weekend into early next week): the deep SE wind flow
continues around the south side of the large mid-level high over the
eastern u.S. On Saturday and Sunday, with not much change in the
precipitation timing and coverage from the previous days. Models
have been consistent in showing a change in the large scale weather
pattern by Monday as the western atlantic subtropical ridge breaks
down in response to a large mid-level trough is depicted to sweep
into the eastern u.S., and a strong high pressure builds over the
intermountain west. At the same time, a tropical wave currently over
the central tropical atlantic near 50w may get close enough to south
florida to influence our weather. The GFS is faster is showing the
possible effects of the wave on Monday, while the ECMWF is slower
and farther east. For now will not increase pops as much as some
of the model guidance is indicating as we're still 5-6 days out,
but if trends continue then rain chances could increase further early
next week.

Marine...

the main threat continues to be periods of showers and thunderstorms,
more numerous over the gulf of mexico waters each afternoon and
evening, but also increasing over the atlantic waters tonight and
early Thursday. This same general pattern of timing of showers and
thunderstorms will persist through the weekend. Otherwise, winds
generally E SE 10 knots, with periods of near 15 knots during the
night and early morning over the atlantic. Seas generally 3 feet
or less, except higher in and near showers and storms.

Beach forecast...

a slight risk of rip currents will continue into the upcoming
weekend at the atlantic beaches with the continued light E se
wind.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 91 81 92 80 30 30 30 20
fort lauderdale 91 81 91 81 20 30 30 20
miami 92 81 92 81 20 30 30 20
naples 91 77 93 77 40 30 60 20

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 33 kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 4 mi54 min E 6 G 8 86°F 88°F1020.1 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 14 mi24 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 84°F 85°F1020.7 hPa (+0.6)
PEGF1 22 mi54 min E 6 G 7 1021 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 22 mi30 min ESE 4.1 G 7 89°F 1020.8 hPa75°F
MDKF1 36 mi84 min 86°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 39 mi84 min 87°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 40 mi84 min 88°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 41 mi144 min 87°F
THRF1 41 mi144 min 88°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 43 mi144 min 86°F
JBYF1 43 mi84 min 88°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 44 mi144 min 87°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 44 mi144 min 87°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 46 mi84 min 87°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 47 mi84 min 87°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 47 mi84 min 86°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 47 mi84 min 85°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 48 mi84 min 87°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 48 mi144 min 86°F
NRRF1 49 mi84 min 87°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL6 mi31 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F72°F56%1020.3 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL10 mi31 minSE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F75°F62%1020.5 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL15 mi31 minSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F73°F56%1020.6 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL16 mi31 minESE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds92°F75°F58%1020.1 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL20 mi31 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F75°F67%1020.2 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL23 mi88 minE 910.00 miFair89°F76°F67%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from MIA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE9E12E11E11E9E11E11E10NE8E10SE3CalmE6E8E5E6E4E6E6E6SE8SE6SE7E10
2 days agoSE9E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Miami, Marina, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 02:32 AM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:05 AM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:37 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.1-1.4-1.4-0.80.31.21.61.71.50.7-0.3-0.9-1.2-1.5-1.5-10.11.21.8221.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.