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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 401 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..E se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sat..E se winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sat night..E se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W nw in the morning. Bay waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Mon night..N ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..E ne winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed night..E ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Bay waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..
moderate easterly winds are expected through Saturday before becoming more southerly on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the atlantic generally 3-5 ft through Sunday, and 2 ft or less in the gulf.
gulf stream hazards: seas 4 to 5 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2023 at 12 utc...
the approximate location of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 081931 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 231 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1158 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Predominantly dry conditions are expected through the short term period as a dry air mass remains over the area. Surface high pressure remains the primary synoptic feature, which will keep surface flow east to southeasterly through the remainder of today and through Saturday. As the boundary layer moistens with easterly surface flow in place, a few isolated showers will be possible for east coast metro areas this afternoon through tomorrow. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s for interior areas, and mid to upper 60s for coastal regions. On Saturday, the aforementioned area of high pressure continues its eastward trek, as a mid-level trough begins to dig across the Great Plains. This influence should keep predominantly dry weather across the CWA, with a continuing chance for isolated showers across eastern areas. Highs on Saturday will be a little bit warmer, with lower 80s expected for eastern areas and mid 80s for western areas.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

On Sunday, the intensifying mid-level trough is anticipated to advance further into the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico.
Concurrently, a robust surface frontal boundary will progress through the Southeast, extending into Northern and Central Florida as the day unfolds. Ahead of this frontal system, regional winds are expected to shift towards a south-southwesterly direction, and concurrently, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will incrementally heighten. However, substantial uncertainty persists regarding the specifics, as recent ensemble model outputs have indicated a deceleration in the eastward movement of both the mid- level trough and the surface frontal boundary. This delay suggests that the peak probabilities for showers and thunderstorms might occur later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the most favorable dynamics and instability are projected to remain significantly north, there remains a potential for a few intense thunderstorms, characterized by gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Elevated values of bulk shear and mixed-layer Convective Available Potential Energy (ML CAPE) will create a conducive environment for the development of thunderstorms, contingent upon adequate low-level mass convergence. This aspect of the forecast will continue to be closely monitored throughout the week. Sundays high temperatures are expected to reach the lower 80s in east coast metropolitan areas and the mid-80s in the interior regions of Southwest Florida.

With model guidance indicating a slower movement of the frontal boundary, its passage over South Florida is now forecast for the overnight and early morning hours of Monday, possibly stalling over the Florida Straits thereafter. Cold air advection across South Florida is expected to be modest, as winds rapidly shift to a more north-northeasterly direction from Monday into Tuesday, with high pressure building from the north. Forecast uncertainty for the early to middle part of next week remains heightened due to discrepancies in model guidance regarding the strength of the incoming high pressure. A more robust high-pressure system could extend further south, potentially ushering in drier air during this period. Conversely, a weaker high-pressure system might allow the stalled frontal boundary to remain closer to the region, maintaining higher moisture levels and continued chances of showers. The latest forecast adopts a model blend, incrementally increasing shower probabilities on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mondays high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s along the east coast. With the development of northeasterly winds, a gradual warming trend is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the period with east to southeasterly flow 10-15kts. There is a chance for a few isolated showers although there is not high enough confidence to include in any specific TAF at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Marine conditions today have improved, with the earlier hazardous conditions no longer present. Wave heights over the Atlantic waters are now more moderate, generally ranging between 3 to 5 feet. Winds are expected to continue evolving, shifting out of the east today and veering out of the southeast as the weekend approaches. The possibility of thunderstorms later in the weekend should be noted, especially in the context of an advancing cold front.

BEACHES
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least Saturday for the Atlantic coast. This elevated threat may persist

MARINE
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Marine conditions today have improved, with the earlier hazardous conditions no longer present. Wave heights over the Atlantic waters are now more moderate, generally ranging between 3 to 5 feet. Winds are expected to continue evolving, shifting out of the east today and veering out of the southeast as the weekend approaches. The possibility of thunderstorms later in the weekend should be noted, especially in the context of an advancing cold front.

BEACHES
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least Saturday for the Atlantic coast. This elevated threat may persist

BEACHES
Issued at 1150 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least Saturday for the Atlantic coast. This elevated threat may persist

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 71 81 72 82 / 10 0 0 50 West Kendall 67 82 68 83 / 0 0 0 50 Opa-Locka 70 82 70 84 / 10 0 0 40 Homestead 70 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 50 Fort Lauderdale 71 81 72 82 / 10 0 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 71 81 72 82 / 10 0 10 40 Pembroke Pines 68 81 70 83 / 10 0 0 40 West Palm Beach 68 80 70 82 / 10 10 10 40 Boca Raton 70 81 72 83 / 10 10 10 50 Naples 65 82 66 81 / 0 0 0 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Dinner Key Marina
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:02 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 AM EST     2.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:29 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dinner Key Marina, Florida, Tide feet

Miami Harbor Entrance
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Fri -- 02:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:13 AM EST     1.55 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:53 AM EST     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:06 PM EST     1.29 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:06 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:28 PM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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