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Marine Weather and Tides Chokoloskee, FL Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:12AM

Sunset 7:28PM

Friday September 18, 2020 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC)

Moonrise 7:22AM

Moonset 7:41PM

Illumination 2%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chokoloskee, FL

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Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 181505 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Update.

A distinct mesoscale boundary oriented from NE to SW is slowly transversing central Florida. Horizontal convective rolls are developing across much of South Florida, owing to destabilization induced by the diurnal heating cycle. There is little in the way of precluding sea-breeze development today, as weak synoptic flow and absent widespread cloud cover should allow for sufficient horizontal temperature gradients. The aforementioned boundary will combine with the Atlantic sea-breeze to serve as the foci for convective development today. The greatest coverage today should be eastward of Lake Okeechobee, where moisture convergence seems to be maximized. SSW boundary layer flow should allow for convection to also develop today a bit more over the metro region compared to prior days this week.

Any convection that does develop today will generally be pulse- type. This is because steering flow is very light (SFC-8km mean wind is 220 3kts per 12Z sounding) which is also commensurate with very weak (nearly absent) effective bulk shear. Furthermore lapse rates are rather paltry (< 6.0C/km) and upper levels are warm (-4.0 C at 500 hPa). With that said, localized enhancements to the low-level shear profile may become prevalent where boundary interactions take place, which could favor some stronger storms. So convection today should remain sub-severe in terms of impacts, but cannot rule out isolated strong wind gusts. Additionally with quiescent steering flow, localized flooding could become a concern, particularly where storms backbuild or meander.

Maximum temperatures will be seasonably warm this afternoon, with lower to mid 90s forecast across the region. Slightly cooler temperatures should be felt near the coast, where sea-breezes may provide mild relief.

Prev Discussion. /issued 749 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020/

Aviation (12Z TAFs) .

Predominately VFR conditions across the TAF sites through the forecast period. Sea-breezes should be the primary foci for convective initiation/coverage during the period, with VCTS across most sites by 18-19Z, lasting until about 23-00Z. Brief bouts of MVFR/IFR possible near any convection. Winds will predominately be SSW, but sites closer to coast may experience a brief shift to SSE wind direction. The exception is APF, where a SSW wind becomes SW/WSW with time.

Prev Discussion . /issued 416 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020/

Short Term (Today through Saturday) . Some moisture behind a trailing boundary from the remnants of Sally are crossing the south central portions of the peninsula of Florida this morning. The light southerly to southwesterly surface wind flow will continue which should allow the sea breezes to develop today. The southwesterly flow may help favor the Gulf sea breeze and pin the Atlantic sea breeze closer to the coast. This will help create a convective focus not just along the sea breezes but also where boundary interactions occur. Forecast has the highest PoPs depicted over the Lake Okeechobee region and portions of Palm Beach and Broward this afternoon. The wind shear profile is fairly light with any available shear for thunderstorms fairly localized to influences like sea breezes and boundary collisions.

The moisture and temperature profile in the atmosphere is also not the most favorable for vigorous organized convection with pockets of relatively drier air and warm temperatures through a good portion of the lower to mid levels. Precipitable water values around 2 inches across most of the area are not too dry though it may seem that way compared to last week. A mid-level trough over the eastern United States still does not quite extend far enough south to reach southern Florida, which limits a source of colder air that could advect in aloft. Accordingly, this should help keep thunderstorms more pulse in nature today driven by boundaries and the diurnal heating. Accordingly, cannot rule out a strong storm or two capable of producing localized strong wind gusts, torrential rainfall, possibly some funnel clouds along boundary collisions, and lightning.

Heading into Saturday, the boundary will remain north of the region with a reinforcing front attempting to push in from North Florida. This will help to keep South Florida in a relatively moist airmass which should allow convection to once again develop on Saturday. The focus for convection will again be the interior of the peninsula towards the east coast. Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s expected both Friday and Saturday afternoons.

Long Term (Sunday through Friday) . As the remnants of Sally continue to lift northeastward across the western Atlantic, a trailing quasi-stationary baroclinic zone will become established off the eastern seaboard, extending across the southeastern CONUS into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, an amplifying shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes region before progressing off the New England coast. The aforementioned shortwave trough will act to reinforce the baroclinic zone, allowing for a southward progression of the boundary as anomalously strong cP high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS. In addition, Hurricane Teddy will be nearing Bermuda around the same timeframe before continuing on a general northward track toward the Canadian Maritimes. Medium-range model guidance is generally in agreement that Teddy will interact with the aforementioned baroclinic zone as well, acting to further tighten the pressure gradient peripheral to the strong surface high.

Present indications are that the interaction of these features will allow for the baroclinic zone to progress southward toward South Florida to start the extended period. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy northeasterly surface winds across South Florida on Sunday, lasting through at least the middle of the week. Anticipate deteriorating marine conditions across all local waters with increasing wind waves and swell beginning as early as Sunday morning (see marine section below). The aforementioned weak baroclinic zone will act to focus relatively deep/rich moisture across the region (PWs exceeding 2.0 in), which will enhance convective coverage across South Florida on Sunday and Monday. The primary hazards with any convection during this timeframe will be locally gusty winds (due to enhanced low-level convective momentum transfer) and localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. The tight pressure gradient should allow for progressive storm motions, though deep/rich moisture and repeated rounds of convection could lead to localized flooding (especially along the coastal metro areas during times of high tide).

By Tuesday, deterministic global model solutions and their ensembles depict drier air advecting into the region behind the aforementioned baroclinic zone (dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s). Temperatures should also be slightly below average during this timeframe, with maximum temperatures in the middle to upper 80s across South Florida. Extended model solutions seem to keep the quasi-stationary baroclinic zone in the vicinity of South Florida into the end of the week, raising some uncertainty in the long-term pattern across South Florida. Interests across South Florida are urged to keep up with the evolving forecast, as the lingering boundary could lead to additional heavy rainfall concerns in the extended period.

Marine . Isolated to scattered convection over the local waters to end the week and to kick off the weekend. A frontal boundary is forecast to approach from the north, increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across the local waters for the weekend. Breezy NE winds behind the frontal boundary will result in building seas and swells in the Atlantic early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be necessary for hazardous marine conditions that develop this weekend into early next week over at least the Atlantic waters. Wind gusts may approach gale force.

Beach Forecast . Southerly wind flow across the region will help mitigate the influence of earlier southeasterly flow. However, given the NE swell off the Palm Beach coast, the elevated risk of rip currents will remain a concern through the weekend. Easterly swell through the Providence channel will arrive during the weekend with northerly swell from the Atlantic joining in later in the weekend into early next week. This could lead to the elevated risk of rip currents spreading southward along the Atlantic coast of South Florida and lingering well into next week. High surf and beach erosion may also be concerns heading into next week along the Atlantic coast due to deteriorating conditions as the swell arrives.

Astronomically higher than normal tides may result in isolated minor coastal flooding along coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Collier counties through Sunday evening. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the aforementioned coastlines.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 93 76 91 76 / 40 30 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 92 78 91 78 / 50 50 50 30 Miami 92 78 91 77 / 30 20 50 20 Naples 89 76 90 75 / 20 10 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 09/Bhatti Marine . 02/RAG Aviation . 09/Bhatti Beach Forecast . 02/RAG Short Term . 02/RAG Long Term . 18/Weinman

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL	8 mi	63 min			86°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL	11 mi	63 min			86°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL	19 mi	63 min			86°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL	22 mi	63 min			85°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL	26 mi	78 min	WSW 7	90°F			1014 hPa	79°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL	29 mi	63 min			85°F
HREF1	30 mi	63 min			85°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL	33 mi	63 min			84°F
SREF1	33 mi	63 min			86°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL	34 mi	63 min			86°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL	34 mi	45 min	SSW 11 G 13	87°F	86°F		1014.2 hPa
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL	34 mi	123 min			85°F
CWAF1	39 mi	123 min			86°F
NRRF1	39 mi	63 min			86°F
LRIF1	43 mi	63 min			87°F
WWEF1	45 mi	123 min			86°F

Wind History for Naples, FL

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL	33 mi	70 min	SSW 9	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	88°F	79°F	75%	1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Chokoloskee, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Indian Key, Florida

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL

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Gulf Stream Current

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