Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chokoloskee, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A synoptic scale trough amplifying across the the Great Lakes, Central US and extending into the deep south will continue to advect eastwards today and into this weekend, which is expected to drag a cold front southwards over the weekend as well. As this trough advects eastward, the mid-level high pressure ridge will shift offshore into the western Atlantic and low-level to mid- level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly today. This will usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs of 2+ inches for most of the area) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The prevailing southerly to southeasterly low level flow pattern will support the most widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring over inland portions of South Florida today. Current QPF projections are for no more than 0.5-1.0" of rain today across inland and SW Florida today along with 90th percentile QPF of 1-2". Therefore, outside of any localized urban flooding due to poor drainage, excessive rainfall is not a high concern for today.

As the cold front rushes further southwards on Sunday, forcing for ascent will be increased across the entire region and deep moisture will be pooled over the area as well. Thus, widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to form on Saturday. Depending on rain rates and storm training, flooding due to excessive rainfall is much more possible for Saturday. By this time, low level will shift southwesterly and steer the strongest convection towards the east coast metro areas. 90th percentile QPF for Saturday is much higher at 3-6", mainly across SE Florida. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) currently has a Marginal Risk issued for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, which corresponds to at least a 5% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance. This has potential to be upgraded if guidance hints at further impacts. A lot of the rain that will be observed on Saturday could become more stratiform and create a lesser flood risk with lighter rain rates if the atmosphere gets worked over quickly, but that would likely be a short notice change given that the trough and attendant cold front will provide plenty of continuous forcing and vorticity maxima that will take advantage of the moist and unstable environment.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and then are expected to fall to the low to mid 80s for most areas on Saturday due to the cold front approaching and a more rainy day expected.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Once the frontal boundary discussed in the short term clears through the area on Sunday and into early next week, rain chances will lower back below 40-50% for most of the region as drier air arrives.
Strong surface high pressure will re-develop in the wake of the trough starting to advect offshore, creating a stout pressure gradient that could last several days into next week. Winds are first expected to increase on Sunday and last into the early to middle portion of next week, with several days of wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible.

Additionally, with winds expected to remain northeasterly during this time frame and stronger winds over the local waters, frictional convergence along the coast is likely to be the main driver in rain shower or storm development for next week. Uncertainty in remains in what potential rainfall could amount to in this type of setup, but it is worth noting that we have seen these setups over-perform before. Therefore, we will continue to monitor trends closely. High temperatures in the long term will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front late this weekend. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Isolated coastal showers are moving onshore from the Atlantic but quickly dissipating. This shower activity should linger for a couple more hours. Predominant easterly flow should keep most afternoon convection focused over interior and Southwest Florida.
A gulf breeze at KAPF will shift winds west to southwest during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites, but did included VCTS for KAPF.

MARINE
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are expected across the local waters today. Winds will then shift to the north/north-northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north, which will start to bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters. This will also coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range before rising to 7-10+ feet over the weekend when the front pushes through, and wind gusts are expected to approach Gale force at some point. Thus, marine headlines are expected to be issued in the next day or so. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 90 78 88 75 / 30 30 90 70 West Kendall 90 77 87 74 / 30 30 90 60 Opa-Locka 90 77 88 74 / 30 30 90 70 Homestead 90 77 88 75 / 20 40 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 87 74 / 30 40 90 80 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 87 75 / 40 40 90 80 Pembroke Pines 90 76 88 73 / 30 30 90 70 West Palm Beach 89 76 87 73 / 50 40 90 80 Boca Raton 89 76 87 73 / 40 40 90 90 Naples 89 75 84 70 / 40 40 60 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.