Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chokoloskee, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A rather potent mid level low/trough complex will push through a good portion of the Eastern Seaboard today into tonight before gradually pushing off into the western Atlantic on Sunday. While the trough axis will remain well to the north of the region, it will suppress the mid level ridging to the southeast which will result in mostly zonal flow over South Florida this afternoon and through the rest of the weekend. At the surface, a very weak frontal boundary currently over Central Florida will continue to slowly push southeastward through the region this afternoon before stalling over the southern portion of the area or over the Keys heading into the second half of the weekend.

Out ahead of the front, some lower level moisture will gradually pool over the region as PWAT values gradually increase and will generally range between 1.3 and 1.6 inches this afternoon through Sunday. Most of this moisture will be in the lower levels of the atmospheric column as the latest forecast model soundings show a pretty good swath of drier air remaining in place across the mid levels during this time frame. The weakening frontal boundary moving into the region combined with an increase in lower level moisture could be enough to spark off some scattered shower activity this afternoon out ahead of the front. With a good amount of drier air in place across the mid levels, thunderstorm chances will remain very low as the front pushes into the region and continues to weaken.
However, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out over the southern areas and the Atlantic waters where instability may be slightly higher.

As the front loses its forward momentum and gradually stalls out on Sunday, there will still be enough lower level moisture to keep just a slight chance of showers in place mainly over the east coast as well as the Atlantic waters. However, most of the region will remain dry through a good portion of the day. High temperatures for today will generally remain in the lower to mid 80s along and north of Alligator Alley as well as the east coast metro areas. High temperatures could rise into the upper 80s across interior portions south of Alligator Alley. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most of the region, however, some interior locations south of Alligator Alley in Southwest Florida could see upper 80s once again on Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

For the early portion of the week, mid level zonal flow gradually gives way to some weak mid level ridging through Monday and into Tuesday. At the surface, what is left of the very weak frontal boundary washes out as high pressure builds in from the north. This will allow for a light to moderate east northeasterly wind flow to remain in place during this time frame. With this area of high pressure in place, combined with the weak mid level ridging aloft, there will be enough subsidence taking place to support mostly dry conditions across the region on Monday and Tuesday. However, with the east northeasterly wind flow continuing, some lower level moisture may still linger over the region which could keep a very low end chance of showers in place mainly over the Atlantic waters and east coast. Any shower that does develop will be low topped and rather short lived. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will generally range from the lower 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region and east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s over Southwest Florida.

Heading into the middle of the week, the weather pattern will start to change a bit as a mid level shortwave pushes across the Gulf Coast states and into Northern Florida on Wednesday into Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure will gradually start to push further east into the western Atlantic. The latest global and ensemble guidance remain in relatively good agreement keeping this shortwave off to the north of the region, however, it will start to draw in some deeper moisture over South Florida. This could increase the chances for showers during the middle of the week especially during the afternoon hours during peak diurnal heating. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally range from the lower 80s across the Lake Okeechobee region and the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

The uncertainty in the forecast towards the end of the week rises as the latest global and ensemble guidance show a deeper trough pushing over the Eastern Seaboard during this time frame. At the surface, guidance is showing signs of a developing area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region during the Thursday and Friday time frame. The cold front associated with this system could move into and pass through the region towards the end of the week which would increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. However, guidance still does remain in disagreement in regards to exact timing of the front as well as its intensity as it approaches the region towards the end of the week. With the front nearby, the latest forecast increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week.
Behind the front, there will be the potential for a much cooler air mass to push into the region for the following weekend. More to follow on this as the details become clearer as the week progresses.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light winds will remain in place through this morning. These winds will then become NE across the east coast terminals after 17z and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon.
Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon near the east coast terminals. At KAPF, light and variable winds will increase out of the NW after 17z as a Gulf breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Light to gentle north northeasterly winds will remain in place across most of the local waters today. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds will become moderate out of the north northwest this afternoon. Winds become more northeasterly across all local waters heading into the second half of the weekend.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range between 1 to 3 feet through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered showers will be possible mainly over the Atlantic waters this afternoon and tonight as a weakening frontal boundary pushes through the region.

BEACHES
Issued at 159 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the upcoming weekend. Minor coastal flooding will also remain possible along the east coast during each high tide cycle this weekend due to the King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 86 72 84 72 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 87 72 85 72 / 20 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 87 72 85 72 / 20 20 10 10 Homestead 86 73 85 73 / 20 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 85 72 83 71 / 20 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 71 83 71 / 30 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 87 72 85 71 / 20 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 85 70 83 69 / 30 20 10 0 Boca Raton 85 71 83 71 / 30 20 10 10 Naples 84 69 84 68 / 10 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.