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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt near shore...except E se 5 to 10 kt well offshore. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun..S se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NEar shore, sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight, seas 2 ft or less. Well offshore, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming N nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight, seas 1 to 2 ft building to 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft after midnight. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except N 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 to 3 ft near shore and 6 to 7 ft, occasionally to 9 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Mon night and Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 to 3 ft near shore and 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tue night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

GMZ600 338 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow persists through today. Onshore flow strengthens Saturday night ahead of a cold front. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow follows behind the front for Sunday through Sunday night with gusts to gale force possible over the open gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KMFL 091126 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 626 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

The airmass over South Florida will continue to moisten as we remain on the periphery of Atlantic surface high pressure which will permit the southeasterly to southerly wind flow this weekend. Aloft, a mid- level low crossing the upper midwest and an amplifying mid-level longwave trough moving into the eastern third of the country will propel a cold front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the area on Sunday.

Convection today should remain mostly showers with a focus along a boundary located over the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County. As this warm front retreats northward heading into Sunday, rain chances will generally diminish until diurnal heating peaks on Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Some thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out, mainly focused over the waters. Localized heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out, particularly along the east coast metro where coastal influences could contribute.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Conditions will deteriorate further with the passage of the cold front Sunday night into early Monday morning. Enhanced moisture ahead of this front will allow for convection to develop across the East Coast and local Atlantic waters overnight, with 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some of those storms could be strong in character, with gusty winds and frequent lightning possible. Conditions briefly improve on Monday as the front clear our area and high pressure builds over the SE US. Cooler, drier air will advect over the region behind the front, keeping daytime temps on Monday in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the mid 50s (over the interior) and mid 60s (along the East Coast).

The aforementioned front will likely stall out over the Florida Straits for much of the extended period, keeping a strong pressure gradient over South Florida through the end of the week. This should promote persisting breezy northeasterly winds across much of the area with gusts 20-30kts possible.

As we head towards the end of the extended period (Wed-Fri), some of the models suggest a return to unsettled weather as the aforementioned lingering front meanders northward towards our area.
Several ensembles show PWATs reaching 2", with a few members hinting at QPF values between 2-4" along the East Coast during this timeframe. Uncertainty regarding this solution remains high, with some discrepancy regarding the strength of the area of high pressure over the SE US and thus how close the meandering front can come. As such, the current forecast shows gradually increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms with conservative QPF estimates along the East Coast.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR through the period with an easterly to southeasterly flow.
Some isolated showers are possible, mainly near the Atlantic waters. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for bouts of sub-VFR with convection.

MARINE
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds today will become more southerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Showers and some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the period, particularly over the local waters. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front could allow hazardous marine conditions to develop by Monday and linger through much of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A high risk of rip currents will persist through at least the weekend along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida thanks to a southeasterly wind flow. Accordingly, the Rip Current Statement for the Atlantic beaches has been extended through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 72 82 67 / 10 10 30 40 West Kendall 82 68 83 65 / 10 10 30 40 Opa-Locka 82 71 83 67 / 10 10 30 40 Homestead 81 71 82 67 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 72 82 67 / 10 10 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 72 82 66 / 10 10 30 50 Pembroke Pines 82 70 83 66 / 10 10 30 40 West Palm Beach 80 69 82 64 / 20 20 30 50 Boca Raton 81 72 83 64 / 10 10 30 50 Naples 82 66 81 61 / 10 10 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Round Key
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Sat -- 03:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:45 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:05 AM EST     3.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     1.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:11 PM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Round Key, Florida, Tide feet

Cape Romano
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Sat -- 03:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:37 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:54 AM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:00 PM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romano, Florida, Tide feet

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