Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Goodland, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:02PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 6:59 AM EST (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:23AMMoonset 3:17PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 316 Am Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Today..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots nearshore and north northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots nearshore and north 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet nearshore and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet offshore. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots nearshore and north 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots offshore. NEarshore, seas 2 to 3 feet. Offshore, seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet in the afternoon. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots nearshore and north northeast 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..NEarshore, northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Offshore, northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming west northwest in the morning. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 338 Am Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis..Moderate to strong northerly winds and elevated seas will persist today as a strong surface high pressure system builds over the eastern half of the country. As the high continues its eastward advance, winds become a light to moderate easterly. A low pressure system and associated cold front tracks eastward over the gulf coast late Thursday into Friday morning, bringing the next round of unsettled weather. Offshore flow and drier conditions set up Friday and continues into the weekend following the passage of this weather system.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goodland, FL
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location: 25.84, -81.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 211132 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 632 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Aviation. Generally VFR with breezy to gusty northwesterly to northerly wind developing.

Prev Discussion. /issued 658 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020/

Update . No significant changes to the forecast this evening. High pressure is building to the north, behind todays cold front. Cooler temperatures through the middle of the week. Only some minor tweaks to incorporate the latest Hi-res model guidance.

Prev Discussion . /issued 325 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020/

Much Colder Temperatures through Wednesday. .Freezing Temperatures Possible Western Interior Tuesday Night .

Short Term (Tonight-Tuesday) . a relatively drier and cooler air mass is now advecting from the north as winds turned NNW in the wake of a FROPA. The front moved across the area a little faster than anticipated, and the associated pre-frontal convection ahead of the main boundary is already well-past the Florida Keys. Only active showers are seen over the Atlantic offshore waters, while skies are now gradually clearing over SoFlo.

The 12Z MFL sounding came out fairly dry, with PWATS around 0.9 inches, and this was ahead of the FROPA. And with further cooler/drier air advection tonight, there is no mention of showers through Tuesday.

Models also backed down from bringing the surge of northerly winds over land in the wake of the FROPA for today or tonight, and the breezy/gusty conditions are not expected until late Tuesday when more robust cold/dry air advection establishes. Therefore, expect moderate northerly flow through Tuesday morning, with temperatures tonight dropping into the low-mid 40s inland and mid-upper 50s near the coast.

For Tuesday afternoon, models depict a shortwave trough swinging southeastward across the SE CONUS and out over the Atlantic by Tuesday night, which will reflect at the surface as a deepening low off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will dominate the mid west CONUS, with prolonged northerly persisting across the deep South and the Florida peninsula. This synoptic scenario will result in enhanced pressure gradients, breezy and colder northerly winds over South Florida Tuesday night. Thus, ideal conditions will be in place for possibly having the coldest temperatures of the season so far with lows ranging from the mid 30s west of the Lake/interior SW Florida to the upper 40s right along the East Coast. While frost is not expected to be a concern since winds should stay around 10mph or more overnight, a wind chill advisory (wind chill of 35 degrees or less and winds over 5 mph for 3+ hours) will be possible for some of the interior portions of the area.

Long Term .

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday .

The greatest concern during this period is the potential for freezing temperatures and very cold wind chills across western and interior portions of South Florida. A moderating continental high pressure area will migrate from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic States during this time, as an upper low drops southeast from the coastal Carolinas towards the northern Bahamas. An associated surface low will develop well offshore from Florida while tracking away to the east. This scenario will set up N-NW flow aloft with a robust pressure gradient bringing anomalously strong northerly surface winds across the Florida Peninsula. In fact, NAEFS anomalies for 1000 hPa wind are 2-3 deviations from the mean, with a return period of over 10 years. A portion of the wind anomalies across central Florida are even outside of the climatology, with a suggested return period of greater than 30 years. This places us purely in a cold advection driven regime with a well mixed surface layer. While it's noted that pure advection driven freezes are notoriously hard to achieve at this low latitude, the strength of these wind anomalies combined with strong model agreement increases confidence that some portion of our area may reach the freezing mark late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Taking a look at some of our historical freezes suggests that both 1000-500 and 1000-850 hPa thicknesses are well within (if not below) the mean values that have produced freezing temperatures across portions of South Florida in the past. In addition, our Model Certainty tool (which analyzes all available model guidance) suggests probabilities exceeding 50% for temperatures at or below 32 degrees across portions of Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier Counties. Given this rather robust signal, a freeze watch and/or warning may be necessary for some inland portions of South Florida with future forecast updates. Additionally given the robust surface winds, wind chill values are likely to drop into the mid 20s to upper 30s across much of inland South Florida, likely necessitating the need for a Wind Chill Advisory as well. Those with agricultural interests across these areas should keep up with the forecast as protective measures may be necessary for sensitive vegetation on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Thursday through Monday .

Phased upper jet energy will locate just north of our area keeping the storm track nearby for the extended period. An increase in mid- level moisture and increasing differential cyclonic vorticity advection is likely across our area by the weekend as warm advection ensues ahead of a shortwave trough progressing from the Ohio Valley towards New England and the Mid Atlantic states. As surface low pressure accompanies the upper level system this should bring an associated cold front through South Florida over the weekend. Shower chances will initially be confined to the Atlantic waters and east coast, with rain potential gradually spreading inland towards the weekend as the front approaches. Temperatures should near seasonal values ahead of the front with slight cooling possible behind it.

Marine .

Increasing northerly to northwesterly flow behind a cold front will allow for hazardous conditions to continue in the Gulf and Atlantic waters. There will be some brief improvement for the Gulf but the Atlantic waters could see the hazardous conditions linger through a good portion of the week. Mariners are advised to stay aware of the latest forecast as the current advisories will likely change in time and require extensions into the late parts of the week.

Beach Forecast .

Potential for significant rip current activity could continue over the Palm Beaches through a good portion of the work week. Another cold front moves through the area late Tuesday, with conditions deteriorating behind and further increasing risk of rip currents over both the Gulf and Atlantic waters, probably through late in the week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 65 40 67 60 / 0 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 46 67 61 / 0 0 20 20 Miami 68 44 67 59 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 63 38 65 52 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ651-671.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-670.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.

Aviation . 02/RAG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 16 mi75 min NE 7 47°F 1021 hPa44°F
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 19 mi120 min 72°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 24 mi60 min 48°F 68°F1020.7 hPa (-0.0)
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 29 mi120 min 71°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 33 mi120 min 69°F
HREF1 39 mi120 min 71°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 40 mi120 min 72°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 42 mi66 min NNE 19 G 22 49°F 1021.6 hPa
SREF1 42 mi120 min 72°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi120 min 72°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 44 mi120 min 70°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 44 mi180 min 71°F
CWAF1 48 mi120 min 68°F
NRRF1 49 mi120 min 73°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL24 mi67 minN 710.00 miFair50°F41°F71%1020.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N4N6N8N8N6N9NW10NW8NW11NW8N6N5N5N7N3N4N5N6N6N9N9N8N7
1 day agoE5SE4SE8SE13SE12S10S10S15S13S13
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SW9S7S5S4SW3SW4SW6W5NW4NW7NW8NW8NW7NW5
2 days agoE8E8E11E12E13
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Tide / Current Tables for Round Key, Florida
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Round Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 AM EST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM EST     3.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:33 PM EST     1.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:23 PM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.90.90.1-0.5-0.7-0.50.111.92.73.13.12.82.31.81.41.41.72.22.93.43.83.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romano, Florida
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Cape Romano
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:54 AM EST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:25 AM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:17 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     1.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:12 PM EST     3.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.30.5-0.2-0.7-0.8-0.6-00.81.62.22.52.52.321.71.61.61.82.12.52.933

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.